ATP Indian Wells Masters Odds & Preview: Favorite Djokovic’s Participation in Doubt

• As at the Australian Open, Novak Djokovic is in the draw – but his participation is uncertain
• Indian Wells is Daniil Medvedev’s first tournament as the No. 1 ranked player in the world

• Read on for our tournament breakdown, and favorite picks

It feels like a rerun of the leadup to the Australian Open at Indian Wells in California.

Novak Djokovic is in the men’s singles draw. But it’s unlikely he will play because of issues entering the country unvaccinated. Although with a first-round bye, he wouldn’t take the court until the weekend.

And he is the strong favorite to win in what is the fifth major tennis event of the year after the grand slams.

ATP Indian Wells Masters Men’s Singles Odds

Odds as of March 9 at BetMGM

The field is stronger than it was last October when the tournament managed to hold its 2021 edition six months after its normal time slot.

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The winner was Cameron Norrie, seeded No. 12 this time (No. 21 last fall) and with odds at +5000. The finalist was Nikoloz Basilashvili, seeded No. 18 (No. 29 last fall) and a true long shot at +20000 this time.

Novak Djokovic is on the tournament entry list, and therefore is placed into the draw today. We are currently in communication with his team; however, it has not been determined if he will participate in the event by getting CDC approval to enter the country.#IndianWells

— BNP Paribas Open (@BNPPARIBASOPEN) March 8, 2022

Draw Uncertainty Means Lack of Balance

When Djokovic was removed from the Australian Open draw at the last minute, it was too late to rejig it. Lucky loser Salvatore Caruso ended up in the top spot instead of the Serb.

If the same thing happens at Indian Wells, it helps No. 11 Hubert Hurkacz and No. 7 Andrey Rublev in the short term and No. 3 Alexander Zverev in the medium term.

No. 1 seed Daniil Medvedev and No. 4 Rafael Nadal, who dramatically squared off in January’s Australian Open final, ended up in the same half of the draw and can only meet in the semifinals.

That could have happened even if Djokovic had withdrawn and Zverev had become the No. 2 seed; the odds were 50/50.

Previous ATP Indian Wells Winners and Finalists

Contenders Have Best Indian Wells in 2021

The 2021 edition didn’t feature any of the “Big 3”. And the top eight seeds had a total of 17 career main-draw victories – total.

Nadal and Djokovic, individually, have three times that many.

The six top seeds not named Djokovic or Nadal, not coincidentally, all had their career-best efforts at Indian Wells in 2021.

And yet, none of them made it past the quarterfinals; the No. 21 and No. 29 seeds were the last two left standing.

ATP Indian Wells Masters Top Seeds – Best Previous Results

To sum up, Medvedev and Zverev have good odds but no track record. Nadal is the only one with a track record.

He’s already been in the desert practicing for nearly 10 days. And the slow, gritty courts suit him well – especially if it warms up.

First-Round Matches to Watch

Borna Coric (+225) vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-300)

A long-awaited return to the court for Coric, the former No. 12.

He has been out exactly a year, since Rotterdam the first week of March 2021. And he had shoulder surgery last May.

Despite that, Davidovich Fokina is only at -300.  At -120 to win in straight sets, he’s worth backing.

Adrian Mannarino (+110) vs Brandon Nakashima (-140)

Nakashima, from nearby San Diego, is a favorite despite having lost to Mannarino in Delray Beach last month.

The conditions couldn’t be more different – more in the Frenchman’s favor. Generally speaking, Mannarino only loses to the very best in the desert.

https://youtu.be/ec49Li_Q_Bc

Nakashima will have some “home-court support”, which can be a blessing or a curse.

Take Mannarino outright, or +360 for it to go three sets.

Best Bet: Rafael Nadal (+350)

Good Longshot: Felix Auger-Aliassime (+2000)