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Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Odds & Prediction – Copa Libertadores Semifinals Leg 1 (Aug 30)

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Aug 30, 2022 · 6:16 AM PDT

Al Ahly vs Palmeiras
Players of Brazil's Palmeiras celebrate winning the Copa Libertadores final against Santos at the Maracana stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Saturday, Jan. 30, 2021. Palmeiras won 1-0.(Mauro Pimentel/Pool via AP)
  • It’s Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras in the Copa Libertadores Semifinals Leg 1 on August 30
  • Palmeiras are aiming for their third consecutive Copa Libertadores title
  • We preview the game, look at Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal odds, and offer some picks below

It’s Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras in an all-Brazilian Copa Libertadores Semifinal Leg 1 on Tuesday, August 30 at 8:30pm ET at the Arena de Baixada.

Palmeiras are the current Copa Libertadores champions, while for Athletico PR this is their first appearance at the semifinal stage since 2005.

We preview Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras and offer below some analysis, team news, and picks for this huge Copa Libertadores clash.

Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Athletico Paranaense +260
Palmeiras +106
Draw +195

Odds as of Aug 30 at Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this or other games.

Palmeiras are plus money favorites at +106 with a 49% implied win probability but Caesars are predicting a tight one with Athletico PR pitched at +265 for the win with an implied probability of 27%. There is also a decent return on offer for the draw at +195, with an implied probability of 34%.

 

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Over/Under and Spread

Caesars have listed under 1.5 goals in plus money but only just, at miserly +155, which suggests they see this as low-scoring. Therefore, worth considering must be the ‘under 0.5 goals’ bet at a juicy +575.

If you’re new to betting on soccer and want to know about Asian Handicaps and Pointspreads, then our easy-to-understand page offers help on how to bet on this game and others like it.

Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Prediction

It has been a tough road to the semis for Athletico PR – winning their previous two knockout legs by just a single goal – but they now face an even tougher test against the reigning champions. This is the furthest Athletico have got in the competition since 2005 when they beat Mexican side Chivas Guadalajara in the semifinal before losing 5-1 on aggregate to Sao Paulo in the two-legged final.

PR’s manager, the legendary Luiz Felipe Scolari, has plenty of experience in this competition, having won it as coach of Gremio in 1995 and Palmeiras in 1999.

The Late Late Show for PR

For Paranaense, the knockout stages of this tournament have been notable for the late winners in both games. A 90th-minute goal from Rômulo Cardoso gave them an aggregate win over Libertad in their round-of-16 tie, while they left it even later, the 96th-minute, to overcome Estudiantes in the quarters, with Vitor Roque getting the all-important goal

Slightly concerning for the Furacao is that they are on a poor run – no wins in their last four – but on the plus side, their home form in this season’s Copa has been very good as they are unbeaten at home and have three clean sheets.

Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head Stats

Athletico Paranaense
VS
Palmeiras
11-6-7 Current Brazilian Série A  record 14-8-2
29 / 28 Goals for / Goals against 39 / 16
5th Current position 1st
1999, 2020, 2021 (winners) Best Copa Libertadores season(s) 2005 (runners-up)
W-W-L-L-D-D Form guide (all comps) D-W-W-W-D-D

Palmeiras Atop Serie A

Abel Ferreira’s men made light work of the group stages of this tournament, just as did their round-of-16 tie where they beat Cerro Porteño from Paraguay 8-0 on aggregate), but their quarterfinal was a completely different story. They were pushed all the way by the current Brazilian champions Atletico Mineiro and had to come back from a two-goal deficit in the first leg before winning the tie on penalties.

Their form has generally been good all season though and they are unbeaten in six while earning three clean sheets in their last five away games. It’s a run that has taken them eight points clear at the top of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A.

Outstanding on the Road

Palmeiras also have an outstanding recent record in this competition – winners in 2020 and 2021 – and haven’t lost an away leg in a Copa Libertadores semifinal since 2018 when they were beaten 2-0 by Boca Juniors in the first leg of their tie. They also have an outstanding record against fellow Brazilian sides in this tournament, having never been beaten away from home.

Ferreira’s team is on the cusp of history, and if they remain undefeated in this semifinal and win the final, they will become the first team in a decade to win the tournament without losing a single game.

Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Team Lineups and Injuries

PR Projected Lineup: Anderson, Pedrinho, Hernandez, Santos, Orejuela, Fernandes, Erick, Vitinho, Bueno, Cardoso, Roque.

PR Injuries: Christian, Marios, Marcelo Cirino.

Palmeiras Projected Lineup: Weverton, Rocha, Gomez, Murilo, Piquerez, Jailson, Ze Rafael, Lopes, Veiga, Navarro, Rony.

Palmeiras Injuries: None.

Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Pick

Palmeiras’ outstanding record away from home in this competition almost rules out the home win, but Athletico has excelled in this season’s tournament and, unlike their opponents, don’t regularly get to this advanced stage of the Libertadores. They will make this hard for Palmeiras.

The Scolari factor and their excellent home form could well be enough to see them pick up a draw and leave themselves in with a chance in the second leg.

Pick: Athletico PR and Palmeiras to draw (+195)

 

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