North Carolina vs Minnesota Prediction, Odds & Public Betting Trends (Aug. 29)

• We’ve made our North Carolina vs Minnesota prediction for Thursday night Week 1 college football
• The Tar Heels are favored in the UNC vs Minnesota odds as they transition to a new QB post-Drake Maye
• Read on for North Carolina vs Minnesota prediction, odds, and betting trends for this Week 1 showdown

College football is officially back, baby. And we’ve got a juicy Week 1 matchup to sink our teeth into, with the North Carolina Tar Heels traveling to TCF Bank Stadium to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

This Thursday night tilt on August 29, 2024 features an ACC-Big Ten clash that could set the tone for both teams’ seasons. The oddsmakers have pegged the Tar Heels as slight 2-point road favorites with a total of 50.5.

Here’s our UNC vs Minnesota prediction for Week 1 as the CFB season kicks into full gear.

UNC vs Minnesota Prediction

Last year, these two teams met in Chapel Hill with the Tar Heels laying a beatdown on the Gophers, 31-13. But this is a new season with fresh faces on both sidelines. UNC lost superstar QB Drake Maye to the NFL, so either Max Johnson (a Texas A&M transfer) or Conner Harrell will lead the offense.

Whoever wins the gig will have the pleasure of handing off to Omarion Hampton, a dynamic RB who accumulated over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs last year. Hampton should find plenty of running room against a Minnesota defense that allowed nearly 150 rushing yards per game in 2023.

Omarion Hampton: Dark-horse Heisman candidate👀@UNCFootball pic.twitter.com/J2V5Kjyj4C

— PFF College (@PFF_College) August 15, 2024

Meanwhile, the Gophers are hoping New Hampshire graduate transfer QB Max Brosmer can resurrect an offense that sputtered in the Big Ten basement last season. Sophomore RB Darius Taylor, who impressed with 5.8 yards per carry as a freshman, figures to carry a heavy load.

Taylor racked up 138 yards against UNC last year and could be in for another big game if the Tar Heels’ defense hasn’t improved. Don’t be shocked if Taylor has a few highlight-reel runs against a UNC run defense that gave up 163 yards per game last season.

I’m giving North Carolina a slight edge based on their offensive firepower and Minnesota’s recent struggles at home (2-6 ATS in their last 8). The Tar Heels’ rushing attack should control the tempo Thursday. I’m also playing the “under” considering UNC’s defensive improvement and Minnesota’s methodical offensive style under PJ Fleck.

UNC vs Minnesota Picks:

• North Carolina -2 (-110)
• Under 50.5 (-110)

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North Carolina vs Minnesota Odds

Tar Heels Short Favorites in Thursday CFB Odds

The oddsmakers have installed North Carolina as 2-point road favorites with a total of 50.5. The Tar Heels have implied odds of 52.4% to win outright, with moneyline odds of -130 (bet $130 to win $100). Minnesota checks in as a +105 home underdog.

We’ve seen some volatile line movement, with the spread bouncing between UNC -2.5 and -1 and the total dropping from 52.5 to 50.5. This suggests the sharp bettors aren’t fully sold on either side and are leaning towards a lower-scoring contest.

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North Carolina has struggled to cover the spread consistently, going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. However, they’ve started seasons strong, posting a 4-1 straight-up record in their last five openers. Minnesota hasn’t fared much better, failing to cover in four straight games and six of their last eight at home.

The under has hit in six of the last nine meetings between Big Ten and ACC opponents. While the “over” is always tempting in the college football odds, this game has low-scoring written all over it.

UNC vs Minnesota Public Betting

Per our CFB public betting splits, 52% of bets are backing the Tar Heels as 2-point favorites, but 54% of the money wagered is on the Gophers +2. This indicates that while slightly more individual bettors are taking UNC, the larger wagers from respected players are on Minnesota.

In terms of the total points, 57% of bets and 67% of the money are on the under 50.5 points. The total opened at 50.5 in May, ticked up to as high as 52, but has since fallen back down to 50.5.

This suggests that despite the public favoring the under, some respected money came in on the over early, pushing the total up. However, the more recent movement back down to 50.5 indicates the sharps are now aligning with the public in expecting a lower-scoring game.

In essence, the betting market is somewhat divided on the spread, with public bettors favoring UNC and sharps slightly leaning Minnesota. On the flip side, the public is hitting the over while smart money expects the under to hit.