USA vs Finland Prediction, Odds & How to Watch World Junior Gold Medal Game

• The United States and Finland square off for the gold medal at 2025 World Junior Championship in Ottawa
• USA is going for their second straight gold medal, while Finland searches for their first since 2019
• Read below for the game preview, betting odds and pick for this gold medal matchup

The 2025 IIHF World Junior Championship all comes down to this – the United States, fresh off their 4-1 win over Czechia in the semi-final, against Finland, who won a 4-3 overtime thriller vs Sweden to make the final. Winner takes gold, loser settles for silver. Puck drop on Sunday, January 5th, is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on the NHL Network in the United States and TSN in Canada. USA is a massive -334 favorite to claim back-to-back golds, while Finland is +220. These two teams have squared off just once to decide gold, with Finland winning 3-2 in 2019. The total in this one is set at 5.5 goals with the over slightly favored.

United States vs Finland WJC Gold Medal Game Odds

United States are -334 moneyline favorites, giving them an implied win probability of 77%. USA is also -1.5 on the puckline at a much better -112 price. This would mean, however, that the States has to win by at least two goals for this bet to cash. Team Finland is +1.5, with -125 odds to win outright or keep the game within a goal. 

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United States vs Finland Betting Breakdown

This will be the 40th time these two squads do battle all-time at this tournament, with remarkably each side winning 19 times and also skating to one tie. Finland got the better of the States in the 2019 gold medal final in Vancouver, and they also emerged victorious this tournament in the preliminary round, 4-3 in overtime.

Each squad has played six contests, with USA leading the tourney in goals (33), with Finland lagging behind at 19. The States’ power play is tops at 36.0%, compared to the Finnish eighth ranked 18.2% man advantage. The Fins are better on the penalty kill (90.5% compared to 81.8%), and have a sparkling .935 save percentage, contrasted by .927 for USA.

FINLAND DEFEATS SWEDEN IN OT TO GO TO THE WJC GOLD MEDAL GAME 😱🇫🇮

(via @IIHFHockey) pic.twitter.com/ZBEGLCq76K

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) January 4, 2025

Finland was bailed out by netminder Petteri Rimpinen, who stopped 19 of 20 shots in the third period semi-final against Sweden, before his team won 4-3 in OT. Team USA handled Czechia 4-1 in the other semi, which marked their fifth game of the tournament winning by at least three goals – the only team that caused them problems were these same Finns, 4-3 in overtime.

United States vs Finland Prediction

Somewhat surprisingly, no European nation has won gold at this tournament since the Finns did in 2019, which is the lone time anyone other than USA or Canada has won it all since 2017. There’s a reason the United States is such a heavy favorite in this one, despite losing in the preliminary round to the Finns – their quartet of Gabe Perreault, Cole Hutson, Ryan Leonard and potential first overall pick James Hagens are either tied for the tournament scoring lead, or one point behind. They’re relentless, and that’s led to them scoring 33 goals versus the 19 by Finland.

Can’t wait to see this kid on Broadway! Gabe Perreault is putting on a show at the World Juniors. Team USA will play for Gold tomorrow night and a chance to go back to back! #NYR #WJC #USAHockey pic.twitter.com/vkanohTn7Z

— Kyle Hall (@KHallNY) January 5, 2025

Can Finland keep up with their dangerous combatants again? It’s easy to forget, but the Finns were boat-raced 4-0 by Canada in the opening game of this tourney. There’s too much star power on the other wide to be confident in picking the Finns to defy the odds yet again versus the States on the moneyline.

However, rather than select USA on the moneyline, given that the -334 price is super short, banking on them doing what they’ve done five of six times this event (winning by multiple goals) yields the better return. Should they get it done, it’ll be the first time USA has won back-to-back golds at the WJC.

WJC Gold Medal Game Pick:

• United States -1.5 puckline (-112)