Braves vs Padres Player Props to Target for Sunday Night Baseball

• We’ve got our first taste of Sunday Night baseball of the season on Sunday, March 30, 2025
• The Atlanta Braves will look to avoid a sweep at the hands of the San Diego Padres
• See my favorite MLB player props, picks, and predictions tonight

The 2025 MLB season has not started the way the Atlanta Braves had hoped. They’re four games in and still looking for their first win of the season. In their defense, they opened on the road against a very good San Diego Padres crew so there is that, but still. To be the best, you have to beat the best and that goes for every team. But no matter how the Braves are doing, we have to bet this game. It’s the first Sunday Night Baseball game of the season. By the time this thing comes on, we’ll have already hit the Milly Parlay for the day (probably) so we’ll need something to help us unwind. Lucky for us, I dove into this game already and pulled out what I think could be the greatest bets of our generation. It’s our lucky day.

Braves vs Padres Player Props to Target for Sunday Night Baseball

Odds as of March 30 at Fanduel and ESPNBet. Claim the FanDuel promo code to get a bonus for Sunday Night’s Braves/Padres game.

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Braves vs Padres Player Prop #1 – Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 H+R+RBI

MLB has been taken over by Jacksons. They are literally everywhere. We’re talking Milwaukee, Baltimore and San Diego at the moment. If we’re being honest, I don’t think it will be long before there is one in every MLB city. Maybe even two.

But no matter how many Jackson’s there are in MLB, there is only one Jackson Merrill. This kid is a dawg.

Jackson Merrill is still a dawg

Nothing has changed

pic.twitter.com/zp1nX1wLSb

— Padres Nation (@NationPadres) March 27, 2025

I’m going to be honest with you all, I don’t love going +130 for 2.5 hits plus runs plus RBI. If I’m going 3+, then we need to be looking at +150 or higher. Still, baseball (and all sports really) is about matchups and Jackson has a good one tonight.

For starters, he’s going to see AJ Smith-Shawver which is a good thing. Smith-Shawver has the opportunity to be good in this league for a long time but he’s 22. He’s not quite there yet. The kid gave up 17 hits over his last 14 innings of work this spring. Merrill himself tattooed a ball 102 mph last October in his only at bat against Smith-Shawver. I think he does even more damage again tonight.

• The Bet: Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits + Runs +RBI (+130) – ESPN

Braves vs Padres Player Prop #1 – AJ Smith-Shawver Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed

Pitching in MLB is tough even when you have good stuff. It takes time to learn all the nuances and in the meantime, you can get hit like a pinata. AJ Smith-Shawver is learned that all spring and the lessons should continue into the regular season.

Lucky for AJ, he’s got the stuff to be a major leaguer as long as he can handle all of the learning curves along the way.

AJ Smith-Shawver looked good today with three strikeouts over two scoreless innings. That changeup is beautiful. Important to remember he just turned 22 this offseason and has high-quality stuff. Think he could break camp in the Braves rotation. pic.twitter.com/Z9bcjAa4M6

— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) February 26, 2025

Unfortunately for Smith-Shawver, only five teams in the entire league have more hits in the first three games (Cubs & Dodgers are excluded since they’ve played five games). The Padres are hot and even if Manny Machado doesn’t play tonight, they’ve still got the bats to get things done. They’re a borderline wagon.

What’s even worse for AJ is these same Padres dominated him last October. I’m not one to put much stock in one MLB game but it’s all we have. Four different Padres hit balls 100+ mph off Smith-Shawver and he only threw 29 pitches that day. Throw in the fact that he gave up 12 runs in 14 innings of work this spring and we have the makings of a beating tonight. Feels right.

• The Bet: AJ Smith-Shawver Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100) – ESPN