Sens vs Leafs Game 5 Prediction, Pick & Betting Lines

• Game 5 of the Battle of Ontario shifts back to Toronto as the Leafs host the Ottawa Senators leading the first-round series 3-1.

• Toronto is 9-0 in its last nine home games and is 1.5-goal favorites on the puck line Tuesday.

• I know Toronto fans are nervous, but I’m locked in with my prediction, pick and look at the best betting lines for Game 5 Tuesday.

Toronto (44-42-1 ATS) faces history and the Ottawa Senators (36-50) in Game 5 tonight at Scotiabank Arena.

The Maple Leafs’ record at closing out teams in the playoffs lately is not good, let’s just say that. Toronto leads this series 3-1 with three of the games going to overtime.

Did Ottawa turn things around with its Game 4 OT win? Will a 4-minute power play chance in OT haunt Toronto going forward? I have the prediction and pick for what will be a bruiser.

Sens vs Leafs Betting Lines

Odds from FanDuel as of Tuesday morning. Lock in on the NBA and NHL playoffs with our best FanDuel promo code.

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get $300 Back in Bonus Bets Every Day For 10 Days!

Must be 21+. T&C Apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Offer not available in IN, VA.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

GET $300
BONUS BETS

EVERY DAY FOR 10 DAYS!

BET NOW

Toronto is favored again in this series by 1.5 goals Tuesday, with the total set at 5.5 at most sportsbooks. Ottawa is 37-41-8 over/under this season. Games at Scotiabank are 15-26-2 this season over/under. All that tells me is we should be thinking under tonight for Game 5.

The home team has won the first period in four of the Senators’ last five games, another check for Toronto, who needs to get off to a good start. The underdog has covered the puck line in 10 of the last 11 games between these two teams.

I found the best moneyline odds for Ottawa is +155 on Bet365. The best return on a moneyline bet on Toronto is at DraftKings at -166.

Sen vs Leafs Prediction

I predict that Toronto wins a close one, the last three games in this series have gone to overtime, but Toronto has the better goalie in Anthony Stolarz, who has a .902 save percentage this series compared to Linus Ullmark, who has allowed 15 goals and his save percentage is .848. Toronto hurt itself in Game 4 with a bad early penalty by Max Domi that gave Ottawa life.

But it will not come easy. First round disappointments are the Maple Leafs’ Thing. In 2022, they were up 3-2 on Tampa Bay and lost in seven. In 2021, they were up 3-1 on Montreal and lost in seven. In 2019, they were up 3-2 on Boston and lost in seven. I hate to remind Toronto fans, but the Stanley Cup drought is 57 years, the longest in the sport. That’s what I mean when I say Toronto is facing history.

Sens vs Leafs Pick

• Senators +1.5 (-194 at FanDuel)

• Under 5.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

While I predict the Maple Leafs will win, I don’t think they cover. I think it’s a one-goal game, maybe 2-1 with Ottawa putting the pressure on in the third period and giving everyone in Toronto nightmares.

I am taking the under as well. Ottawa has actually outshot the Maple Leafs in this series, but also has 60 penalty minutes compared to Toronto’s 44. That’s been a big difference this series. I just don’t know that Toronto will try to open things up when they get a lead. It’s a risky strategy, but I predict it will work well enough.