Panthers vs Lightning Game 5 Prediction, Odds & Prop Bets

• The Florida Panthers take a 3-1 series lead into Game 5 against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Wednesday, April 30th

• Tampa Bay is listed as slight -115 home favorites in the Panthers vs Lightning Game 5 odds

• Read below for Panthers vs Lightning Game 5 preview, with a prediction, odds and prop bets

The Florida Panthers are on the verge of eliminating their cross-state rivals as they head into Game 5 against the Tampa Bay Lightning with a commanding 3-1 series lead. After a dramatic comeback victory in Game 4, where they scored two goals just 11 seconds apart in the final four minutes, the Panthers now have a chance to close out the series on the road.

Puck drop for Game 5 at Amalie Arena in Tampa is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET on Wednesday, April 30th, with coverage on ESPN2 and SN360.

Here is our look at the Game 5 Panthers vs Lightning odds, along with odds and prop bet recommendations.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 5 Predictions

For my Game 5 prediction, I’m taking advantage of the value on Florida and backing the Cats to close out the series. Paul Maurice’s club is a veteran-laden, playoff-experienced roster that knows they can’t afford to give the Bolts any life in this series.

Despite being slight underdogs on the road, the Panthers have shown why they’ve been dominant in this rivarly, winning 13 of their last 18 meetings with Tampa Bay since February 2023. Florida has also been exceptional on the road during playoff action, winning eight of their last 11 playoff road games.

The difference maker in this series has been the play between the pipes. Sergei Bobrovsky has been stellar for the Panthers, posting a 3-1 record with a 2.01 goals-against average and a .902 save percentage, including a shutout in Game 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy, typically one of the league’s elite netminders, has struggled with a 1-3 record, 2.79 GAA, and .884 save percentage.

Vasilevskiy vs Bobrovsky: Tale of the Tape

Tampa Bay’s offense needs a serious spark, having scored just nine goals across the first four games and failing to net more than two goals in three of those contests. The power play has been abysmal, converting at a meager 6.7% rate (15th in playoffs).

While Jake Guentzel leads the team with five points and Nikita Kucherov has contributed four assists, the Lightning stars haven’t taken over games as they’re capable of doing. Victor Hedman, usually a play-driver from the blueline, is stuck on only one assist.

Florida’s balanced attack, meanwhile, has been its strength. Matthew Tkachuk leads the way with three goals, while Sam Bennett and Aleksander Barkov have each contributed four points. I’m much more confident in a depth player on Florida’s roster coming through tonight than I am in a player on Tampa Bay’s squad.

A potential wrinkle for Game 5 is Aaron Ekblad’s two-game suspension for an illegal hit on Brandon Hagel in Game 4. However, the Panthers have already played stretches without Ekblad earlier this season and still thrived, and Nate Schmidt has stepped up with three goals in the series, including two game-winners.

TB-FLA Predictions:

• Panthers Moneyline (-105 at BetMGM)

Panthers vs Lightning Game 5 Odds

In the Panthers vs Lightning Game 5 odds, Tampa Bay is a narrow -115 moneyline favorite to stave off elimination, giving them a 53.49% implied win probability. If you bet $115 on Tampa Bay and win, you’ll make a profit of $100. On the flip side, if you put down $105 on the Panthers at -105 odds, you’d get back $100 if they win.

The over/under for Panthers/Bolts Game 5 is set low at 5.5, with -115 juice on the over. The past two games barely got over the 5.5 total, and you can expect a tight-checking affair in Game 5 with the Bolts on the brink.

The Lightning have struggled mightily in recent playoff home games, posting a dismal 1-6 record in their last seven postseason contests at Amalie Arena. Florida is now a heavy -1000 favorite in the Stanley Cup odds to advance from this series.

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Odds as of April 30, 2025, at BetMGM. Check out the top NHL betting apps for Panthers vs Lightning.

Panthers vs Lightning Player Props

Looking at the NHL player props, Sam Bennett stands out with his consistent production in this series. He’s scored two goals and picked up two assists in the first four games. He’s been active offensively all season, firing off at least three shots in three out of those four games against Tampa.

Bennett paces the Panthers with 21 shots attempts as well, showing just how often he’s trying to put pucks on net. During the regular season, the agitator averaged 3.17 shots per game, making the over on his 2.5 shots line worth a play tonight.

Meanwhile, Seth Jones has stepped up in a major way for Florida’s defense. After netting the game-winning goal in Game 4, Jones should continue gaining confidence in his first postseason on Florida’s blueline.

With Ekblad out due to suspension, Jones is set to get more ice time and responsibilities, including extra power-play time. He’s already notched a point in two of his last three playoff games and five of his last eight overall, dating back to the regular season.

TB-FLA Prop Picks:

• Sam Bennett Over 2.5 Shots (-110)

• Seth Jones Over 0.5 Points (+105)

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NHL Player Prop odds at BetMGM Sportsbook