Top-Ten Favorites for MLB Awards a Month Into the Season – Judge Massive AL MVP Chalk
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Published:
- One month into the season, the odds for the MLB MVPs, Cy Young awards, and Rookies of the Year have all moved significantly
- Aaron Judge’s odds to win AL MVP are by far the shortest on the board for any 2025 MLB award
- See the updated Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and MVP odds for the AL and NL
The 2025 MLB season is just over a month old and the odds for all of the major individual hardware have shifted considerably since opening day. No sportsbooks are currently offering Reliever of the Year or Manager of the Year odds, but they should be back on the board in the near future.
The tables below list the top-ten favorites for MLB MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year in both the American League and National League as of April 30.
Jump to: MLB MVP Favorites | Cy Young Favorites | MLB Rookie of the Year Favorites
MLB MVP Odds
All odds on this page come from DraftKings on April 30, 2025. Check out DraftKings Missouri if you live in MO.
It’s almost unprecedented for there to be an odds-on MVP favorite this early in the season. But reigning-winner Judge isn’t just the odds-on chalk; he’s a massive -600 favorite to win AL MVP for the third time, which amounts to an 85.71% implied win probability. The second-favorite, Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr, is +800, an 11.11% implied win probability.
Judge is still hitting over .400 (.412), leads the AL in RBI (29), and leads the majors in WAR (2.7) and OPS (1.235). It feels like the only thing standing between him and another MVP award is the possibility of injury.
In the National League MVP odds, reigning-winner Shohei Ohtani is also the early favorite, but his +290 odds carry a more tepid 25.64% implied win probability. Kyle Tucker, now with the Cubs, is a close second at +350 (22.22%). Ohtani has a .942 OPS with seven homers. Tucker has a .965 with seven homers. The Mets’ Pete Alonso currently leads the NL in OPS at 1.126 while the Diamondback’s Eugenio Suarez has an MLB-best ten home runs.
Cy Young Odds
The early Cy Young odds favor two absolute flamethrowers. In the NL, preseason favorite Paul Skenes of the Pirates has maintained his perch atop the board at +190. Skenes has a 2.39 ERA, which isn’t in the top-five in the NL, but his sparkling .80 WHIP is the best mark in the league among qualified pitchers.
SEcond-favorite Yoshinobu Yamamoto, playing his second season with the Dodgers, leads the NL in ERA at 1.06 with an excellent 11.4 K/9 and a solid 1.00 WHIP.
Over the in the AL, reigning-Cy Young-winner Tarik Skubal of the Tigers and Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox are +250 co-favorites, with New York’s Max Fried third at +600.
Skubal and Crochet have nearly identical stats at this point; Crochet has a slightly better ERA (2.05 vs 2.34) but Skubal edges him in WHIP (1.04 vs 1.05) and K/9 (10.4 vs 10.2).
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MLB ROY Odds
The MLB Rookie of the Year odds in the American League currently show a two-horse race between Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson and Red Sox second baseman Kristian Campbell. Wilson is the slight favorite even though Campbell has the higher OPS (.935 vs .717), more homers (4 vs 3) and as many doubles (8) despite 96 fewer plate appearances.
Wilson, of course, has the advantage of little to no competition for playing time on the rebuilding Athletics.
In the National League, Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews is the favorite largely thanks to his rookie-leading seven home runs. Keep an eye out for rising Marlins star Agustin Ramirez, who has made an immediate impact in his first seven games. The 23-year-old catcher/DH has a rookie-best 1.194 OPS and three long balls in just 29 plate appearances.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
