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Home Run Props to Target Today – Get a +9352 HR Parlay on Friday, May 2nd

John Hyslop

By John Hyslop in MLB Baseball

Published:


May 1, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) celebrates with team mates in the dugout after hitting a three run home run against the Boston Red Sox in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
  • It’s huge slate time for us in the MLB on Friday, May 2
  • Whenever we’re looking at this many games, it just makes sense to toss out a dinger parlay
  • See below for my +10835 home run parlay today (May 2nd)

We made it to Friday, and my God, do we need a winner. Betting home runs is about taking guys who are going to hit the ball hard. We’re talking 100+ mph. After that, it’s in God’s hands. We’ve been doing that all week long, but we’re getting nothing to show for it. It’s tough, but that’s the nature of being a home run bettor. It’s not for everyone. Lucky for us, we know dingers come in waves. They always have. We’re a two out of three day away from being profitable. Dingers move fast. In fact, we’re a three of three day away from being Bezos. That’s why we do this to ourselves. Between us, I think we’re Bezos before 8 pm ET tonight. Feels right.

Please remember to play all three legs straight for a 1/4 unit as well as a 1/4 unit three-leg parlay.

MLB Home Run Parlay Today (May 2)

PickOdds
Austin Wells HR+440
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR+350
Alex Bregman HR+350
Three-Leg Parlay+10835

MLB odds as of May 2 at FanDuel. Check out SBD’s list of the top sports betting apps for real money.

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CLAIM OFFER

Friday HR Parlay Leg #1 – Austin Wells to Hit a Home Run

We need a guy we can trust leading us off, and that guy is Austin Wells. The man is literally smoking every ball thrown his way lately, and it’s like nobody cares. He gets lost in the Yankees lineup, which isn’t his fault. There are just too many guys there.

Still, he’s going to see pitches he likes tonight and I’m guessing he continues to smash them.

PitchWell Hard Hit Rate vs Pitch from RHP (2025)Pepiot ISO vs RHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball61%.625
Slider100%.500

This is only half about Austin, though. It’s also got a lot to do with Tampa starter Ryan Pepiot. I like Ryan, but my guy has a dinger addiction. He can’t get enough of them. So far this season, the guy has given up eight home runs in just 34 innings of work. That is horrific. Now he gets to go to New York and throw to lefties aiming at a short porch. This won’t end well for Ryan Pepiot.

  • The Bet: Austin Wells to Hit a Home Run (+440) – FanDuel
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Friday HR Parlay Leg #2 – Vladimir Guerrero Jr to Hit a Home Run

The words “Vladimir Guerrero” have been curse words in the dinger community so far this season. Nobody wants to say them. But here’s the thing. It’s not because Vlad stinks. It’s because he hits the ball harder than anyone else, and it doesn’t go over the fence. Not great for dinger bettors.

But, what goes up, must come down and that’s been happening lately for Vlad. Given the pitch mix he’ll see tonight, we could be looking at another laser show.

PitchGuerrero Jr. Hard Hit Rate vs Pitch from RHP (2025)Allen Hard Hit Rate vs RHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball87%37%
Sweeper100%54%

It’s no secret Vlad is back to stroking dingers. He hit one to the moon last night which followed up another moonshot a couple of days before. Tonight, the bombfest should continue since he’s seeing lefty, Logan Allen. Allen is an old-school dinger guy who gives up nukes to righties like its his job. We’re talking 18 last season, and he didn’t even pitch 100 innings. Translation: Vlad is going yard. Feels easy.

  • The Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+350) – FanDuel

Friday HR Parlay Leg #3 – Alex Bregman to Hit a Home Run

Finally, we need another guy we can trust to close this thing out. It’s Friday night, so there is no room for error here. We only get one shot at Friday night glory per week. We have to get this thing right.

Lucky for us, Bregman is stroking the ball recently and he’s going to see a pitch mix that he likes.

PitchBregman Hard Hit Rate vs Pitch from RHP (2025)Ryan Hard Hit Rate vs RHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball52%45%
Sweeper67%44%

Alex is going to see the great Joe Ryan, which is huge for us (and Alex). Joe, not so much. I like Joe Ryan, but one thing he does like to do is give up dingers. It’s not because he’s bad, though. It’s because he’s not afraid to challenge people. That’s fine and all but Bregman is not a guy you want to challenge right now. He’s hitting piss missile after piss missile lately. I think we see more piss missiles tonight. Feels right.

  • The Bet: Alex Bregman to Hit a Home Run (+350) – FanDuel
  • SBD 3-Man HR Strategy Results: -5.575 Units
John Hyslop

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.

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