Rockets vs Warriors Game 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions

• The Golden State Warriors have their second chance to knock out the Houston Rockets on Friday
• Golden State is a big favorite to end the best-of-seven series in Game 6 tonight
• See the Rockets vs Warriors picks, predictions, and odds for Game 6

After being run off the floor on Wednesday night, the Golden State Warriors (51-36, 26-17 home, 43-42-3 ATS) will have their second chance to eliminate the Houston Rockets (54-33, 23-19 away, 46-40-1 ATS) on Friday when the teams meet in Game 6 at the Chase Center in San Francisco at 6:10 pm PT/9:10 pm ET.

Golden State is a sizable home favorite in Friday’s NBA odds,

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Odds (Game 6)

The Warriors are listed as 5.5-point favorites against the spread in Game 6 and -240 on the moneyline, which amounts to a 70.59% implied win probability. The Rockets come back as +196 road underdog, which gives them a 33.78% implied win probability. The game total is sitting at 207.5 with -110 odds both ways.

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For the second straight game, Houston point guard Fred VanVleet – the only Rocket with meaningful postseason experience – was the best player on the floor. A former NBA champion with Toronto, VanVleet had a game-high 26 points while shooting 8-of-13 from the floor and 4-of-6 from three. Over the last 80 minutes, he’s 12-of-18 from beyond the arc (66.7%).

The Rockets and Warriors went over the total for the second straight games on Wednesday in Game 5, scoring a series-high 247 points against a total of just 202.5. The teams hadn’t exceeded 215 points in the first four games of the best-of-seven series.

HOU vs GSW Series Scores & Betting Trends

The Warriors basically packed it in after the first quarter in Game 5, opting to give their bench a ton of minutes once they found themselves trailing by 16 after one quarter and 27 by halftime. Steph Curry played just 23 minutes on Wednesday while Jimmy Butler played 25 (the most out of all five Golden State starters). Back-up two-guard Moses Moody actually played a team-high 26 minutes and scored a team-high 25 points in the loss.

The upshot of Steve Kerr’s decision, of course, is that the Warriors will come into Friday the more-rested side. All five of Houston’s starters played at least 28 minutes in Game 5 led by Amen Thompson’s 35 and VanVleet’s 33.

Rockets vs Warriors Prediction & Picks for Game 6

• Warriors 1st quarter -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM
• Jalen Green under 15.5 points (-105) at DraftKings
• Fred VanVleet over 15.5 points (-103) at Caesars

Golden State was outplayed and outhustled from the opening tip on Wednesday. There is enough experience on this team to know how pivotal, not just Game 6 as a whole is, but the opening minutes of Friday’s matchup. The aging Warriors cannot afford to have this series go back to Houston for a Game 7, not if they have any designs on a deep postseason run.

I expect Curry, Draymond, Butler, and Kerr to stress the importance of a fast start, and extinguishing any hope on the young Houston sideline as early as possible.

In addition to betting the Warriors to cover as 1.5-point first-quarter favorites, I’m also targeting Jalen Green to stay under his point total of 15.5 points, a number that’s been steadily coming down over the course of the series. Green had one excellent game in the series (Game 2, when he had a game-high 38 points on 13-of-25 shooting) and four awful ones. In Games 1, 3, 4, and 5, Green was held to 11 points or fewer and shot 37.5% or worse from the field. In the last two games combined, he’s attempted just 16 total shots as VanVleet has taken a more prominent role in the offense.