Next Saints QB Odds – Who’s Favored to Replace Derek Carr After His Retirement?
By Chris Wassel in NFL Football
Published:
- Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, and Jake Haener are in the running to be the Saints Week 1 starter for the 2025 season
- Shough had some very good but not great numbers for Louisville last season
- Below, see the odds to be the Saints starting QB in Week 1
Tyler Shough is viewed as a quarterback with slight upside when he was drafted by the Saints in April of this year. A few weeks later, and he’s the favorite to be the starting quarterback after Derek Carr’s retirement. Shough needed two colleges before Louisville was the right choice. He struggled to get snaps at Oregon and Texas Tech before settling for Louisville. Even there, the Cardinals’ signal-caller had his issues. Yet, after Derek Carr’s retirement, the former Cardinals finds himself atop the board in the odds to be the next New Orleans Saints starting QB.
Saints Week 1 Starting QB Odds
New coach Kellen Moore has gone on record indicating this is an open competition. Jake Haener, the team’s 2023 fourth-round draft pick, could be a choice for the Saints, but the former Fresno State QB probably does not start unless he found something in the offseason that wows Moore and the new New Orleans staff.
Odds as of May 11th at DraftKings. Claim the DraftKings promo code before making any NFL Futures bets.
Is Tyler Shough A Shoe-In?
Simply, the New Orleans Saints and the Super Bowl odds do not mix. New Orleans scored 91 points in the first two weeks, but fewer less than 16.5 points per game the rest of the season. The offense was far from prolific ranking in the bottom third in almost every metric.
They lack an identity and while Moore can help, they need healthy wide receivers, Alvin Kamara to discover the fountain of youth, and Kelvin Banks Jr. (drafted 9th overall) to pan out right away at Offensive Tackle.
No one will doubt Shough’s persistence as he spent seven years in college. Yes, he is 25 years old and not the youngest quarterback on the roster.
Shough did have numerous injuries at Texas Tech before staying healthy with Louisville last year. Yes, he had an 8-4 record but his mobility was often overrated. Some scouts have doubts that will translate as well on the NFL level.
The ceiling with Shough might be the best out of the three quarterbacks. He has some intangibles but the New Orleans offense is a project.
Who could have predicted the chaos that would ensue with Derek Carr’s sudden retirement? Just wait, things get a little worse below.
Saints Quarterbacks in 2024 – Completion Rate
Here is the problem. Jake Haener got suspended for six games and then was disaster in his only start. He was benched after one half for a less than 100% Rattler. Teams would just tee off on Rattler and wait for him to take a sack or make a mistake. Rattler was sacked 22 times in seven games while Carr saw the ground a mere eight times in 10 contests.
If New Orleans is crazy enough, Taysom Hill could see some time in this rotation but that appears unlikely at this time.
Rattler Was Scary Bad
The Saints probably should let Rattler go but will not. This is a guy who went 0-6 last year and turned the ball twice for every touchdown. Yes, young players can improve but Rattler seems to get rattled too often.
The quarterback makes sense only because he played last year. He is second currently on the Saints depth chart for a reason. Bluntly, this is because Haener is staple-gunned to the third spot because he is demonstrably worse. Rattler averaged less than six yards per pass attempt. For those wondering, the NFL average in 2024 was 7.0.
The 24-year-old’s best hope is literally listing the shortcomings of the other quarterbacks in the competition. Sure, New Orleans could bring in someone else. However, no one will say this but Arch Manning could be the pot at the end of the rainbow for New Orleans when all is said and done. He tops the NFL Draft 2026 futures currently.
Rattler, like Shough, and Haener may not be long for this team anyway. Also, Rattler may start more games in the long run only to ensure that top pick.
Prediction for Saints Starting QB in Week 1
Shough is likely to win out because preseason is not the same as the regular season. The Saints and their fans have seen enough of the other two quarterbacks to at least give the Louisville product a short run. Get on the prop for Rattler to start the most games, however.
Will Shough be the starter come the end of the campaign? Probably not. All three quarterbacks will not have much to work with in New Orleans and even the new coach knows this year is about getting a franchise quarterback next year.
- Pick: Tyler Shough (-260)
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Sports Writer
A journalist veteran for over two decades, Chris has taught the gamut of fantasy hockey sports online from injuries to news to prospects, and more. He has bet on several sports and written sports betting articles about the NBA, MLB, NCAA football, the NFL, and NHL for USA Today.
