Tiafoe vs Musetti Picks, Predictions & Odds (French Open QF)

• American Frances Tiafoe faces Lorenzo Musetti in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday
• Tiafoe has yet to drop a set through four matches
• See my Tiafoe vs Musetti picks and predictions, along with the odds for the French Open quarterfinal

For the first time since 1996, two American men have made the quarterfinals at Roland Garros. In the case of Frances Tiafoe, however, online sportsbooks aren’t giving him much of a chance to advance any further. The 15th seed is a heavy underdog to 8th seed Lorenzo Musetti in quarterfinal play on Tuesday.

Action gets underway at 8am ET from Court Philippe-Chatrier in Paris, France, with TBS/truTV/TNT and Max providing the broadcast coverage.

Tiafoe vs Musetti Picks and Predictions

• Over 34.5 Games (-125)

Tiafoe has come a long way from the guy who said he couldn’t wait for the clay season to be over prior to the French Open. The American has breezed through his side of the draw so far, becoming the first US man to reach the quarterfinal since 2003.

In the past, his power has been nullified by the slow red dirt, but this year he’s unlocked something in his game. Tiafoe has yet to drop a set through four matches, and has only been taken to a tiebreak once. His latest victory was a straight sets Masterclass over German Daniel Altmaier, in which he won 30 of 37 points at the net.

Now he’ll face his stiffest test yet in Musetti, who’s been one of the most consistent players all season. Tiafoe is the rightful underdog, but he’s not being given any credit by the books. I predict he’ll give Musetti all he can handle, and his recent form and their previous history suggests this could be a long match.

Tiafoe vs Musetti H2H Results

As for the Italian, he’s passed all four of his tests so far, but the last two have come with some adversity. He was down a set and a break before rallying in the third round, and then survived a dogfight with 10th seed Holger Rune in the Round of 16. The latest victory was his first over a top-10 player at a Major, and it continued his impressive clay court season.

Musetti made the Monte-Carlo Final, and was a semi-finalist in Madrid and Rome. He’s 18-3 on clay so far in 2025, but trails Tiafoe 3-2 in their head-to-head matchup. The American has won the last two matches, one on grass and one on hardcourt, while their last battle on clay went the distance in Rome.

If you take back their history to their Challenger days, Tiafoe is 4-3 against Musetti, with a 1-2 record on clay. All three of their clay court matches have gone the distance, and while I’ll stop short of predicting a five-setter on Tuesday, I do believe we’re looking at a minimum battle of four sets. That should easily get us over 34.5 games, just like Musetti’s last two matches at Roland Garros.

Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Musetti

The best price we can find on over 34.5 games is -125 at Caesars. Musetti is currently a -450 moneyline favorite, with Tiafoe coming back as a +350 underdog.

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The Italian is also laying 6.5 games on the spread and I believe there’s value on Tiafoe in that market as well. He may be new to this stage at the French Open, but he’s made plenty of deep Grand Slam runs in the past. He’s a two-time US Open semifinalist, and has also reached the quarters in Australia. Expect a tightly contested, hard fought match with a semifinal ticket on the line.