Sabalenka vs Swiatek Picks, Odds & Props to Bet (French Open Semis)

• World #1 Aryna Sabalenka squares off against #5 Iga Swiatek in the French Open semi-final on Thursday
• Swiatek has won the last three French Opens but finds herself as an underdog in this match
• See my Sabalenka vs Swiatek picks and predictions, along with the odds for the French Open semi-final

An absolutely fantastic semi-finals matchup goes off Thursday at Roland Garros, with top ranked Aryna Sabalenka searching for the third leg of the career grand slam. In her way is Iga Swiatek, who has won three straight and four of five French Opens. This is the first time both have dueled in 2025, after going toe-to-toe on three occasions in 2024.

Action gets underway Thursday, June 5th, at 9am ET from Court Philippe-Chatrier in Paris, France, with TNT Sports, HBO Max and truTV providing the broadcast coverage in the United States, and TSN in Canada.

Sabalenka vs Swiatek Pick & Prediction

• Iga Swiatek ML (+112)

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Aryna Sabalenka has breezed through the quarter-finals, winning all five of her matches in straight sets against Kamilla Rakhimova, Jil Teichmann, Olga Danilovic, Amanda Anisimova and Qinwen Zheng. Of the first ten sets she’s played, only one of them required a tiebreak situation, in the first set quarter-final versus Zheng.

This is just the second time Sabalenka has made the semis at Roland Garros, with this and Wimbledon the two majors she hasn’t been triumphant in. She does have three grand slams to her credit, the 2023 and 2024 Australian Opens and 2024 US Open. Through five matches, the Belarusian has rocketed 25 aces.

Despite Sabalenka having three majors to her counterparts five, she’s the #1 ranked player at this event, compared to #5 for her opponent. Swiatek has gotten the better of Sabalenka in three of the last four meetings, but the favorite in this tilt is Sabalenka.

Sabalenka vs Swiatek H2H Results

Overall, Swiatek has won 66% of her matches versus Sabalenka, taking eight, but dropping four. She hasn’t quite lived up to her super lofty expectations in 2025, but she was within one point of making the Australian Open final.

In this tournament, Swiatek has dispatched her five opponents Rebecca Sramkova, Emma Raducanu, Jaqueline Cristian, Elena Rybakina and Elina Svitolina, dropping just one set to Rybakina . In six career duels versus her adversary on clay, Swiatek has been victorious on five occasions.

I absolutely love the value of Swiatek being an underdog in this one, given her ridiculously amazing streak around these parts, much like Rafael Nadal. She’s gone unbeaten in 26 matches in the tournament, second only to Chris Evert who won 29 straight between 1979 and 1981.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek Odds

The total games has been set at 22.5, with under slightly favored at -126 at FanDuel. Sabalenka is -134 on the moneyline, an implied probability of 57.26%. Contrast that to her competitor at +112, which is 47.17%. Sabalenka is the +145 favorite to win it all in the latest French Open odds, while Swiatek is the +165 second choice.

Should Swiatek pull off the upset and then go on to claim the trophy, she’ll make history as the first woman ever to win at Roland Garros in four successive years.

I just love the value of selecting a player who has been there-done that at the French, and I can’t pass up Swiatek at plus money in this one, particularly given her success versus her opponent, going 5-1 on clay.