US Open Picks, Predictions & Odds for 2025

• The 2025 US Open tees off Thursday, June 12th, at Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania
• Three-time major champion Scottie Scheffler is the +275 favorite to win, with Rory McIlroy a distant second
• See my 2025 US Open odds, picks, and best value bets, below

After Ryan Fox won the RBC Canadian Open in a four-hole playoff against Sam Burns, it’s the men’s third major of the season – the US Open. I had Burns as one of my picks at the Canadian Open, and came agonizingly close to picking up a W. It’s a huge track, from famed Oakmont Country Club just outside of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. In 2016 Dustin Johnson won at this venue at 4-under-par, but in 2007, it was carnage, with Angel Cabrera taking the trophy at +5.

The top-three in the odds come as no surprise, with Scottie Scheffler, fresh off his third career major triumph at last month’s PGA Championship, Rory McIlroy, who won the Masters, and Bryson DeChambeau, the defending champion.

US Open Odds 2025

Scottie Scheffler, who has won three times in 2025, including the PGA Championship, has the shortest odds at +275 in the US Open odds. Rory McIlroy, who won the Masters in April, is the second-favorite at +850. He’s followed by Bryson DeChambeau at +900, who is the defending champion, having taken two US Opens in the last five years.

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Ironically, the two majors that Xander Schauffele has had the fewest top-10s in are the two majors that he’s won – the 2024 PGA Championship and Open Championship. The US Open is actually his best of the grand slam events, at least in terms of making all eight cuts, and posting the most top-10s of any of the four big tournaments (seven).

Past Five US Open Winners

In eight career US Opens, the worst result for the X-Man has been a tie for 14th in 2022. He goes off this week as the fifth choice at +2000, so you can get him at pretty decent value. After being sidelined earlier in 2025 with a rib injury, he took a while to get going, but he’s been solid since.

The last six times teeing it up, Schauffele has been no worse than T-28th, with a best result being a T-8th at the Masters in April. He’s extremely close to getting totally back into form, and I like his chances to contend at a major he absolutely loves. Distance will be paramount for success at this brute of a course, and he’s plenty long enough to have a big week.

US Open 2025 Picks & Value Bets

1. Justin Thomas +4000: While he hasn’t posted a top-10 at the US Open since 2020, it’s hard to argue with the 2-time PGA Championship winners recent form, with a victory at the RBC Heritage and a pair of runner-ups at the Truist Championship and Valspar. In the last 24 rounds on tour, JT is third in strokes gained: putting and seventh in total strokes gained.
2. Sepp Straka +5000: Sepp Straka consistently has longer odds than his play would suggest, simply because he’s not a sexy name like some players who have shorter prices. However, the big Austrian delivers, with four victories, two of which have come in 2025. On the year, he’s second in SG: approach the green, and third in total stroked gained. Three starts ago he won the Truist Championship, and last time teeing it up was third at the Memorial.
3. Viktor Hovland +6000: Even though Viktor Hovland hasn’t been at his all-world best, like he was in winning the 2023 FedEx Cup, he randomly won the Valspar this year after missing three cuts prior to claiming a trophy. Since then, he’s been solid-if-unspectacular, with four top-30s in five events. Admittedly this is a bit of a legacy selection, but at +6000, you can do far far worse than the former world #3 golfer.
4. Hideki Matsuyama +7000: In looking for a solid longshot to wager on, I don’t love any of the numbers pushing past +7000, but Hideki Matsuyama sticks out. He’s won eleven times in his PGA Tour career, including the 2021 Masters, and has been excellent at the US Open. He’s made eleven of twelve cuts, with four top-10s, the best he has of any major. That includes a 4th in 2022 and 6th in 2024. Matsuyama has three victories in the last two seasons, making him an excellent longshot and also someone worth wagering in the top 5/10/20 markets.