Yankees vs Blue Jays Odds, Picks, Predictions & Player Props (July 1)

• The Blue Jays look to take two in a row from the Yankees in a Canada Day matinee
• Max Fried brings a Cy Young-caliber resume to the Rogers Center against a struggling Kevin Gausman
• Below, see my Yankees vs Blue Jays picks and predictions, plus the full slate of odds and player props

The New York Yankees (48-36, 22-19 away, 31-49-4 O/U) and Toronto Blue Jays (46-38, 26-16 home, 42-36-6 O/U) meet in the second of a four-game set at the Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07 pm ET in this Canada Day matinee.

Max Fried, the third-favorite in the AL Cy Young odds, toes the rubber for the Yankees, while Kevin Gausman looks to turn his season around for the Blue Jays. With Fried on the bump, the Yankees are sizable favorites despite their relative struggles at home and Toronto’s strong play at the Rogers Center.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds

New York is priced at -149 on the moneyline with the Jays +125 underdogs. Taking out the juice, the odds give the Yankees a 57.4% win probability and the Jays 42.6%. The over/under has been set at just 8.0 with the under favored at -115. The Blue Jays have skewed to the over this season (42-36-6) but the Yankees have been the second-best under bet in the league all season (31-49-4). Odds as of July 1, 2025 from BetMGM. Claim the BetMGM promo code for a bonus to use on Yankees/Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays rallied late to win the first game of the series (5-4) on Monday, pulling within two games of the Yankees at the top of the AL East in the process, with the Rays still in between. The Yankees continue to lead the league in home runs and OPS, however, and have the best run differential in all of baseball (+112), while the Jays are eight games over .500 despite a -3 run difference.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds Movement & Analysis

The betting market has seen some interesting shifts leading up to this game. The New York Yankees opened as heavier favorites at -167 on the moneyline but have since moved to -149. Consequently, the Toronto Blue Jays have seen their odds shorten from +140 to +125. This movement indicates that money has come in on the home underdog, tightening the line despite MLB public betting splits showing over 80% of moneyline tickets on the Yankees. This reverse line movement suggests that sharper bettors may see value in Toronto.

The runline has followed a similar pattern, with the price on the Blue Jays +1.5 moving from -125 to -139. The total has held steady at 8.0 runs, though the juice has shifted slightly toward the under, from -110 to -115. The potential absence of Bo Bichette (knee) for Toronto could also be a factor tempering offensive expectations.

New York Yankees Injury Report for July 1

Toronto Blue Jays Injury Report for July 1

New York Yankees Career Statistics vs Kevin Gausman

Gausman has had his hands full with Aaron Judge, who has blasted six homers and boasts a 1.310 OPS against the 34-year-old righty. While Gausman has held most of the lineup in check, Judge’s power is a significant threat.

Giancarlo Stanton (twice), Anthony Volpe, and Paul Goldschmidt have also taken Gausman deep.

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Max Fried

The Blue Jays have extremely limited success against Fried in 59 total at-bats. Not a single player on the Jays’ current lineup has hit a home run off of Fried. Vlad Guerrero Jr is the only Blue Jay with an RBI against Fried, record two in 11 at-bats, but also boasting a miniscule .455 OPS against the 31-year-old lefty.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Batter Props

Aaron Judge is the only player who is not plus-money to go over 1.5 total bases, sitting at -102 to record at least two. He also has the shortest home run odds, per usual, at just +179. He has four home runs in his last ten games and his 30 longballs sit second to Seattle’s Cal Raleigh (33) in the AL home run leaderboard.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Pitcher Props

The pitcher props reflect the stark contrast in form between the starters. Max Fried’s earned-runs line is set at just 1.5, with the over juiced at -163, indicating oddsmakers believe he’s due for some regression against a solid lineup. His strikeout prop of 5.5 feels attainable given his efficiency. For Kevin Gausman, the 6.5 strikeout line is ambitious against a patient Yankees lineup.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Prediction

This game presents a classic clash of an elite pitcher against a resilient home team. Max Fried has been nothing short of spectacular for the New York Yankees, posting Cy Young-caliber numbers with a 1.92 ERA and a 10-2 record. His left-handed arsenal, featuring a devastating curveball, is a difficult matchup for a Blue Jays lineup that leans right-handed but has struggled for consistency.

On the other side, Kevin Gausman has been more volatile, but his 4.21 ERA is due to some bad luck. All of his peripherals suggest he’s been considerably better than that surface-level statistic would suggest. He currently has a 3.82 xERA, 3.73 FIP, and 3.88 xFIP.

Adding in the fact that Toronto has been exceptional at home, going 13-4 in their last 17 games at Rogers Centre and an impressive 7-1 in their last eight home games against teams with a winning record, I love the Blue Jays at +125 on the moneyline. The Yankees have struggled on the road recently, with a 1-4 record in their last five away games.

I’m also going to bet the under, assuming Fried will continue to perform well against a Toronto lineup he’s historically found success against, and Gausman will have better batted-ball luck this time out.

Picks:

• Toronto Blue Jays moneyline (+125)
• Under 8.0 runs (-115)