MLB Picks & Predictions for July 4th – MLB Best Bets for Independence Day

• A full 15-game MLB slate is on deck for Independence Day
• Milwaukee is slashing a league-best .307/.377/.485 over the last two weeks
• See my MLB picks, predictions and best bets for July 4th below

Today we celebrate America and there’s no better way to spend your holiday than by sweating our nation’s favorite past time. Baseball schedule makers have rewarded us with a 15-game MLB slate to sweat, with the action starting at 11:05am ET, and lasting all the way into the wee hours of the morning. I’ve scoured the odds board for the top MLB best bets to make today, so check out my MLB picks and predictions below.

MLB Picks & Predictions Today – July 4th

We’ll start in Miami, where the Brewers are in town. Milwaukee’s lineup has been on fire lately, and draw a favorable matchup versus the Marlins Sandy Alcantara. I’m also taking the White Sox on the road over the Rockies as one of my best bets, and I’ll round out my MLB picks with the Tigers moneyline against the Guardians.

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MLB Pick #1: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline

The Brewers enter play with wins in nine of their past 12 games, and are playing like a legit contender in the World Series odds. Their lineup has been on fire over the last two weeks, posting an MLB-best .307/.377/.485 slash line, while averaging over 7 runs per game.

The Marlins are also in solid form having won 10 of 14, but are at a severe disadvantage in the starting pitching matchup. Miami will send Alcantara to the mound, who owns a dreadful 6.98 ERA, and has battled control issues all season. He’s fresh off yielding 10 hits and 7 runs to Arizona, marking the fifth time this season he’s allowed 6+ runs to cross the plate.

Milwaukee will counter with Quinn Priester, who’s surrendered 1 run or less in four of his past five outings. He’ll face a Marlins lineup that struggles to produce offense in their own park, ranking 28th in runs scored at home

MLB Prediction #2: Chicago White Sox Moneyline

Next up on my MLB best bets card in the White Sox moneyline in Colorado. Chicago shocked the baseball world last season by dropping 121 games, yet somehow the Rockies are on pace to be even worse in 2025. A big reason for Colorado’s struggles has been a lack of quality starters. The Rockies rotation owns a league-worst 6.59 ERA, and will send punching bag Antonio Senzatela to the bump tonight.

The right-hander has coughed up 4+ runs in nine of his last 12 starts, and owns a 7.01 ERA at Coors Field where he’ll pitch tonight. The White Sox lineup is far from intimidating, but should see a significant boost given the matchup and the favorable park conditions at Altitude.

Chicago will give the ball to Adrian Houser, who’s exceeded all expectations in his first season in Chicago. Houser owns a tidy 1.90 ERA, and has posted a quality start in six of seven outings so far in 2025. He’ll face a Rockies lineup that’s averaging less than 4 runs per game over the last two weeks, with a 30% strikeout rate.

MLB Pick #3: Detroit Tigers Moneyline

Last, but not least on our MLB best bets card is the Tigers moneyline against the Guardians. Cleveland has dropped seven straight, and has been absolutely anemic at the plate over the last two weeks.

The Guardians own an MLB-worst .191/.261/.314 slash line over that stretch, and have been shut out four times since last Friday. That spells trouble against Detroit’s Reese Olson, who’s limited the opposition to a .215/.305/.294 slash line, and has allowed 1 run or less three times in his past five starts.

While the Guardians are struggling at the dish, the Tigers are red-hot. Detroit is slugging a league-high .509 over the last two weeks, averaging over 6 runs per contest.