PSG vs Real Madrid Prediction, Expert Picks, Best Odds & Lineups (July 9)

• PSG meets Real Madrid in the FIFA Club World Cup semifinals at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ
• PSG is a slight favorite but both teams are plus-money to win in regular time
• See my PSG prediction and picks, plus the best available PSG vs Real Madrid odds on July 9

The second semifinal of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup sees PSG (4-0-1, +11 GD) squaring off with Real Madrid (4-1-0, +7 GD) on Wednesday, July 9, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ (3:00 pm ET). PSG, the reigning Champions League-winners, are modest favorites to advance to Sunday’s final, where Chelsea awaits the winner of PSG/Madrid.

The table below shows the best available odds for the three-way moneyline, total goals, and odds to advance. Under the table, find my PSG vs Real Madrid prediction and picks.

PSG vs Real Madrid Odds

The best odds on the three-way moneyline, for all three options, are at bet365, where the “enhanced moneyline” has a miniscule overround (102.53% cumulative implied probability). The draw (+276) and a Real Madrid (+198) in particular are way better at be365 than anywhere else. The second-best odds bettors can find for a draw are +260 (DraftKings) and the second-best odds for a Madrid win are +190 (at a host of other sportsbooks). The odds for a PSG win are a nearly identical +135 at BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings.

The best odds to qualify for the final are at FanDuel, again for both sides of the wager. FanDuel lists PSG at -132 (they’re -135 or shorter elsewhere) and Madrid at +108 (they’re +105 or shorter elsewhere).

The default total goals has been set at 2.5 O/U by all books, with the over a sizable favorite. The best odds on the over are -175 at DraftKings, while the best odds on the under are +140 at bet365.

Odds as of 10:14 am ET, July 9. Read the latest news on bet365 Missouri ahead of launch on December 1st.

PSG stumbled one in the group stage, falling 1-0 to Brazilian club Botafogo as heavy favorites. But, on the whole, have still been the most-impressive team at the Club World Cup, posting a tournament-best +11 goal difference through five matches. The Parisians have won each of their other four matches by multiple goals, which includes a 4-0 drubbing of Atletico Madrid and a 2-0 clean sheet against Bayern Munich in the quarters. That was just the second time in 22 matches Bayern had been held scoreless; the other came against Benfica in the last game of the CWC group stage when the Germans were resting several starters, including Harry Kane.

That feat of defensive brilliance is made all the more impressive by the fact that PSG went down to ten men in the 82nd minute and down to nine in the second minute of stoppage time. Bayern had nearly ten minutes of stoppage time playing 11-on-9, but still only mustered 0.60 xGF for the entire match, compared to 2.01 for PSG. Achraf Hakimi and Ousmane Dembele combined for this sublime tally after PSG’s second player had been sent off.

In attack, PSG has been phenomenally balanced. No single player has scored more than two of the team’s 13 goals and 11 different players have scored in total for the French side.

Real Madrid has yet to lose a game at the CWC, going 2-1-0 in the group stage with wins over Mexican club Pachuca (3-1) and Austrian side Salzburg (3-0) plus a draw with Saudi giants Al Hilal (1-1). Madrid took down Juventus (1-0) in the round of 16 and Borussia Dortmund (3-2) in the quarterfinals, dominating the shot totals and xGF in both games.

The CWC has been a coming-out party for young striker Gonzalo García. The 21-year-old, who spent the vast majority of last season with Real Madrid B, leads the team with four goals in five matches. He’s started all five games at the 9.

Though with Kylian Mbappe fit, Garcia is expected to come off the bench against PSG.

Real Madrid/PSG Projected Lineups & Absences

Both teams will be missing some important personnel on Wednesday afternoon. For PSG, defenders Willian Pacho and Lucas Hernandez are out due to red cards in the quarterfinals. Nordi Mukiele, another defender who hasn’t played since early April, remains on the sideline due to injury.

Versatile midfielder Eduardo Camavinga, who has been out since late April with a groin injury, is listed as questionable.

On the Madrid side, defender Dean Huijsen is out due to a red card in the win over Dortmund. He’s joined on the bench by fellow defenders David Alaba (knee injury) and Ferland Mendy (knee injury), and forward Endrick (hamstring injury).

PSG vs Real Madrid Prediction & Picks

• Over 2.5 goals (-175 at DraftKings)
• PSG to qualify (-132 at FanDuel)

PSG has been the best team in the world for nearly a year now, and they’ve lived up to the hype at the Club World Cup. Their quarterfinal win over Bayern was a masterclass in ball control and defensive discipline. They currently lead the CWS in Expected Goals Against (xGA), and it’s not particularly close. PSG has allowed just 1.8 xGA through five matches. No other team is under three. Their offense has looked just as potent as it did when they throttled Inter Milan 5-0 in the UEFA Champions League finale.

Real Madrid hasn’t, by any means, looked underwhelming. Their draw with Al Hilal is not as disappointing as some casual fans would think at first glance. The Saudi club is replete with well-paid stars, many still in their prime. But until I see a real slip-up from PSG, I’m not fading them against anyone. The price at FanDuel, -132, amounts to a reasonable 56.9% implied win probability, which is a number a can more than stomach.

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