Pirates vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Skenes-Ryan Props for Friday Night

• Paul Skenes (1.94 ERA) faces Joe Ryan (2.76 ERA) in what shapes up as the pitching matchup of the week
• The Pirates are brutal on the road at 12-35, while the Twins thrive at home with a 26-19 record
• See our Pirates vs Twins prediction, with two aces on the mound and struggling offenses

Friday night in Minneapolis brings us one of the best pitching matchups you’ll see all season. The Minnesota Twins send Joe Ryan (8-4, 2.76 ERA) to face Pittsburgh’s phenom Paul Skenes, who despite a 4-7 record owns a ridiculous 1.94 ERA with 125 strikeouts.

The Pirates have been awful on the road all year, but Skenes gives them a fighting chance in any game he starts. Meanwhile, the Twins need this win to stay relevant in the AL Central race. With both lineups struggling to score consistently, we’re looking at a classic pitcher’s duel.

First pitch at Target Field is scheduled for Friday, July 11, at 8:10 PM ET.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Picks:

• Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-130)
• Under 6.5 Runs (+105)

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This game is all about the two studs on the mound. Skenes has been nothing short of phenomenal with that 1.94 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He’s a generational talent who can shut down any lineup. But Ryan has been the rock of Minnesota’s rotation, and his unique delivery makes him tough to square up.

The situational trends heavily favor Minnesota. They’re 26-19 at home and 6-2 in their last eight against losing teams at Target Field. The Pirates? They’re 12-35 on the road. That’s not a typo. They’ve also dropped five straight as road underdogs.

While Skenes gives Pittsburgh a shot, their road woes and weak offense are too much to overcome. The Twins are simply better at home, and with their own ace dealing, they should grind out a win.

The best bet on the board is the Under. With two elite pitchers and two underwhelming offenses, this screams 2-1 or 3-2 final. Getting plus money on Under 6.5 is a gift.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Odds

The odds tell you everything about this matchup. That 6.5 total is one of the lowest we’ve seen all season, and for good reason. The market gives Minnesota a 54.3% chance of winning compared to 45.7% for Pittsburgh.

Getting plus money on the Under is rare with a total this low. Books usually juice the Under heavily in games like this, so the +105 price screams value.

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Odds as of July 11, 2025, from BetMGM. Get in on the action with the BetMGM promo code.

Odds Movement & Analysis

The Twins opened at -120 and have been bet up to -130, showing steady support for the home team. More interesting is the first-five-innings total, which dropped from 3.5 to 3.0 runs. That’s a massive move.

Sharp bettors clearly expect both starters to dominate early. The full game total opened at 7.0 before settling at 6.5, another sign that the smart money likes the Under despite the low number.

Skenes vs Ryan Pitcher Props

MLB pitcher props as of July 11, 2025 from MGM & consensus data.

Both pitchers have identical strikeout lines at 6.5, with juice on the Over. I love both to go Over here. Skenes has been racking up K’s all season (125 in limited innings), while Ryan’s splitter generates plenty of swings and misses.

The earned runs props at just 1.5 for each pitcher reinforces the Under play. Books expect both to cruise through at least six innings of one-run ball.

Key Batter Props

The batter props scream pitcher’s duel. Look at those RBI lines. Correa at +268 to drive in a run? That tells you runs will be scarce.

Reynolds has the best chance for Pittsburgh to do damage. He’s 1-for-3 lifetime against Ryan with a double. But with Skenes dealing on the other side, I’d fade most batter Overs tonight.

Public Betting on Pirates vs Twins

The public can’t help themselves with Overs. Despite this obvious Under spot, 69% of tickets are on Over 6.5. That heavy public lean makes the Under even more attractive as a contrarian play.

On the moneyline, 64% of bets are on Minnesota, but 53% of the money is actually on Pittsburgh. That’s sharp money respecting Skenes, though I still prefer the home team given the Pirates’ road struggles.

The run line shows both public and sharp money aligned on Minnesota -1.5, which makes sense if you believe the Twins win. In a low-scoring game, covering might be tough though.

Starting Pitcher Matchup

The Pirates have minimal experience against Ryan, going just 2-for-12 (.167) as a team. Oneil Cruz did take him deep in two at-bats, but the rest of the lineup combined for five strikeouts in seven at-bats.

No Twins hitter has faced Skenes yet. His triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider will be a massive test for a Minnesota lineup that ranks middle-of-the-pack in most offensive categories.

This shapes up as strength versus strength. Two aces, two mediocre offenses, and a total sitting at 6.5. I’ll take the plus money on the Under all day.