Phillies vs Yankees Predictions, Odds & Prop Picks (Saturday, July 26)

• The Philadelphia Phillies visit the New York Yankees on Saturday afternoon at Yankee Stadium
• Ranger Suárez (7-4, 2.66 ERA) faces Marcus Stroman (2-1, 5.64 ERA) in the pitching matchup
• See my Phillies vs Yankees predictions and props picks for Saturday’s Subway Series clash at 1:05 pm ET

The Philadelphia Phillies (59-44, 26-25 away) look to clinch the series when they face the New York Yankees (56-47, 30-20 home) on Saturday afternoon. After Kyle Schwarber’s two-home run performance propelled a 12-5 rout on Friday, the Phillies are slight road favorites in the Saturday MLB odds.

First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 pm ET at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees opened as underdogs but have seen their moneyline improve from +106 to +102 at FanDuel, while some books are already flipping them to favorites.

Let’s dive into Saturday’s matinee matchup with our Phillies vs Yankees prediction.

Phillies vs Yankees Prediction

• Yankees Moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)

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Friday’s blowout created some nice value on the Yankees. The market overreacted to one ugly loss, forgetting this is still a lethal Yankees lineup facing a vulnerable pitcher. At plus-money odds, I’m backing the Bronx Bombers to bounce back.

The key matchup heavily favors New York. Marcus Stroman might carry a 5.64 ERA, but the Yankees absolutely crush left-handed pitching. They lead MLB with a .836 OPS against southpaws, and Ranger Suárez throws from the left side.

Aaron Judge is Exhibit A. The MVP candidate is hitting .365 against lefties with a ridiculous 1.142 OPS. Giancarlo Stanton owns a .905 OPS versus southpaws. Paul Goldschmidt adds veteran pop with a .787 OPS in those matchups.

Ranger Suárez vs Marcus Stroman Stats

Those shiny ERA numbers mask some red flags for Suárez. His numbers suggest he’s been lucky. The lefty sits in just the 29th percentile in hard-hit rate and 38th percentile in barrel rate. His .257 BABIP is way below average and won’t last.

Stroman has quietly figured things out lately. After getting shelled early this season, he’s given up three or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts. His ground-ball approach works great at Yankee Stadium, where fly balls often find the seats.

The Phillies also bring some red flags on the road. They’ve lost eight of their last 12 away from home. Schwarber can’t go deep twice every night, and this lineup has been hit-or-miss away from Philly.

The Yankees love playing at home. They’re 8-3 in their last 11 games at the Stadium and rarely drop back-to-back home games. Since 2020, they’re 14-5 after losing at home by five or more runs. That’s a trend worth backing.

Phillies vs Yankees Odds

The Yankees opened at +106 but have already moved to +102 at FanDuel, with some books now offering them at slightly negative odds. That line movement tells you sharp money is backing New York. The total sits at 9 runs with juice on the over.

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Odds as of July 26 at FanDuel. Claim the FanDuel promo code to bet on MLB today.

According to the MLB public betting splits, the consensus is virtually 50/50. 54% of spread bets and 51% of moneyline wagers are on the Phillies, although Over 9 is the clear O/U pick with 68% of bets.

Phillies vs Yankees Prop Bets

• Aaron Judge To Hit A Home Run (+215 at FanDuel)

Judge destroys lefties, and Suárez has been playing with fire all season. The MVP favorite has gone yard in 18% of his games against southpaws this year. At better than 2-to-1 odds, I’ll take a shot on baseball’s best hitter.

Player Prop Bet Odds

Don’t sleep on Giancarlo Stanton to go yard at +340. He’s hit safely in four straight games and feasts on lefties. The short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium was made for his swing.

For a safer play, take Judge to record an RBI at +115. He’s knocked in at least one run in 52% of games this season. Against left-handed starters, that jumps to 58%. Good odds for a likely outcome.

The Yankees need this game badly. They’ve dropped 5.5 games behind Toronto in the AL East and can’t keep losing at home. With the trade deadline coming fast and Ryan McMahon joining the roster, look for the Yankees to come out swinging on Saturday.