Dodgers vs Red Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions & Pitcher Props (July 26)

• Two lefties square off as Clayton Kershaw (4-1, 3.27 ERA) faces MLB strikeout leader Garrett Crochet (11-4, 2.20 ERA)
• Boston ranks 4th in MLB against southpaws (.761 OPS) and could exploit Kershaw’s declining metrics
• Read below for Dodgers vs Red Sox odds, prediction and strikeout prop for Saturday

The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Fenway Park for game two of their weekend series against the Boston Red Sox. After dropping the opener 5-2, Boston sends their ace, Garrett Crochet, to even things up against future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw.

The pitching matchup looks lopsided on paper. Crochet leads MLB with 165 strikeouts and sports a microscopic 2.20 ERA, while Kershaw’s underlying metrics suggest regression is coming. Add in Boston’s success against lefties, and we could see fireworks at Fenway.

First pitch is scheduled for Saturday, July 26, at 7:15 PM ET.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox Odds

Odds as of July 26, 4:21 PM UTC from BetMGM. Get in on the action with a BetMGM promo code.

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The Red Sox opened at -139 and have ticked up slightly to -145, showing steady support despite public money on the Dodgers. The total sits firm at 8.5 with no movement despite 76% of the money on the Over.

After subtracting the vig, Boston’s implied win probability is 56.4%. Given Crochet’s dominance and their impressive home record, they are fairly priced in the MLB odds.

Dodgers vs Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Picks:

• Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-143 at MGM)
• Over 8.5 (-110 at MGM)
• Garrett Crochet Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-148 at MGM)

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The Red Sox offer solid value against an aging Kershaw. The 37-year-old lefty might be 4-1, but his expected ERA sits at 4.23 with negative fastball value and rising hard-contact rates. That’s bad news facing a Red Sox squad that destroys lefties to the tune of a .761 OPS (4th in MLB).

Alex Bregman has taken Kershaw deep twice in just nine at-bats. Trevor Story is batting .348 against him lifetime. Yes, Boston is hitting just .186 since the break, but they’re facing a pitcher who hasn’t found full form yet after missing much of the season.

The Over also looks appealing. Both teams hit lefties well. Boston is third in OPS at home (.793), and the Dodgers’ lineup is dangerous even when cold. Crochet has given up 8+ hits in three of his last five starts. And with both bullpens stretched thin, we could see some late runs.

Crochet’s strikeout prop is the top value on the board. He leads the majors with 165 Ks and holds a 30.6% strikeout rate. The Dodgers are batting just .232 post-All-Star break. Even stars like Freddie Freeman and Kike Hernandez have cooled off. And Shohei Ohtani? He’s 0-for-5 with 4 Ks vs Crochet. That’s elite.

Props

Pitcher Props

Crochet’s breaking pitches rank among the best in baseball, grading in the 99th percentile. Boston has won eight of its last nine starts. Even if he gives up a few runs, he should still rack up enough strikeouts to clear the 6.5 line.

As for Kershaw, his 3.5 strikeout line is tempting. He’s not the dominant force he once was, but that number is low for any MLB starter. Even without big swing-and-miss stuff, he might sneak over.

Key Batter Props

Bregman’s total bases prop at -112 is worth a look. He’s averaging just over two total bases per game and has hit Kershaw well in the past.

Public Betting Splits

The public can’t resist the Dodgers’ brand name, yet professional money paints a different picture on the spread. Just 54% of tickets back Boston -1.5, but those wagers represent 71% of the cash. That’s textbook sharp action.

The total shows rare unanimity between squares and sharps. With 66% of the money expecting fireworks, fading that consensus would be risky.