UFC Fight Night Predictions: Taira vs Park Picks & Odds

• Saturday’s UFC Fight Night is headlined by the flyweight battle between Tatsuro Taira and HyunSung Park
• Taira sports a 16-1 record with five knockouts and seven submissions
• Check out my UFC Fight Night predictions for Taira vs Park and more

Amir Albazi is out and HyunSung Park is in on short notice for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event versus Tatsuro Taira. Online sportsbooks aren’t expecting much of a fight from Park, as Taira checks in as the overwhelming favorite. That’s the way I see it as well, but I’m looking for alternate markets to bet on Taira rather than laying significant juice on his moneyline.

Saturday’s card kicks off early from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas with prelims starting at 6 pm ET and the main card dropping at 9 pm ET on ESPN and ESPN+.

Here are my UFC Fight Night predictions for my favorite fights on the card.

Taira vs Park Prediction

Park is an up-and-comer in the Flyweight division, but there are plenty of reasons to believe he’s overmatched versus Taira. For starters, this is a major step up in class. Park (10-0) has been feasting on no-names, and has yet to face a legit contender. He’s also been training for a 3-Round fight, and this will be the first 5-Round battle of his career.

Tale of the Tape

Statistically, the numbers suggest Park is a superior striker, but the truth is these two are relatively even when factoring in competition. Taira has a 4-inch reach advantage over Park, and typically balloons to one of the heaviest fighters in his class after weigh-ins. That size will come in handy on the ground especially, where Taira has a major advantage.

Taira is one of slickest grapplers at Flyweight, and Park has the tendency to lose his back. It hasn’t cost him yet against inferior competition, but it spells trouble versus Taira. The 25-year-old has racked up seven victories by submission already, and I expect another versus an overmatched Park.

• Taira vs Park Pick: Taira to Win by Submission: +130

Rebecki vs Duncan Prediction

Taira vs Park may be the Main Event, but all signs point to Mateusz Recki and Chris Duncan earning fight of the night honors. These teammates and former roommates bring brawling styles to the Octagon, and I see significant value on Duncan as a +170 underdog.

Duncan has made a name for himself by finishing fights with his fists, but lately he’s shown some versatility by submitting back-to-back opponents via guillotine chokes. He stands a full three inches taller than his opponent and, with a five-inch reach advantage, he should hold his own when upright.

If and when the fight goes to the ground, we’ve seen Rebecki make plenty of defensive mistakes. They haven’t hurt him in recent bouts, but Duncan has the chops to put him in a world of hurt.

Rebecki will undoubtedly throw the kitchen sink at Duncan, by I think the bigger fighter is also a cleaner striker, with the ability to finish the fight upright or on the mat.

• Rebecki vs Duncan Pick: Duncan Moneyline (+185)

Rosa vs Cornolle Prediction

Switching over to the women’s side, I’m targeting another underdog in Nora Cornolle. She has the advantage on her feet in terms of power and precision, and though she’s vulnerable on the ground, Karol Rosa lacks the grappling chops to make her pay.

Rosa has been sliding down the Bantamweight ranks for quite some time, and another loss should permanently knock her out of contention. I expect Cornolle to control the pace of the fight, and end it inside the distance.

• Rosa vs Cornolle Pick: Cornolle Moneyline (+160)

UFC Fight Night Odds – Main Card

Odds as of August 1st at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

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In terms of the UFC Fight Night odds, no fighter has seen their moneyline shorten more than Taira. The 25-year-old opened as a -285 favorite, and now sits at -360. Interestingly, bettors are also coming in heavy on Rosa, going against my Cornolle prediction. Rosa opened as a -166 favorite and has been bet up to -192. That suits me just fine.

Rosa may be more experienced than Cornolle, but the french fighter pulled off the upset in her last bout, and I expect a repeat performance on Saturday.