Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Picks, Predictions & How to Watch

• The Kansas City Chiefs and LA Chargers meet in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Friday night
• The Chiefs have won seven straight against the Chargers, while the under has cashed in four straight
• See my Chiefs vs Chargers picks and predictions, plus details on how to watch KC vs LAC

NFL Week 1 continues on Friday with a global spectacle as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (17-3, 9-11 ATS, 9-11 O/U last season) square off against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers (11-7, 12-6 ATS, 9-9 O/U last season) in Sao Paulo, Brazil. This AFC West rivalry, which pits one of the league’s premier dynasties against last year’s top scoring defense, will kick off at 8:00 pm ET from Corinthians Arena.

The Chiefs have won the last seven head-to-head meetings, a streak of dominance that the Chargers are desperate to snap.

How to Watch Chiefs vs Chargers

Viewers can tune in to Chiefs vs Chargers broadcast exclusively on YouTube, via the NFL YouTube channel. Viewers with YouTube TV can find the broadcast on the homepage. The start time is listed as 8:00 pm ET/5:00 pm PT, but with pregame festivities, don’t be surprised if the game starts five to ten minutes later.

The weather forecast for the outdoor stadium is expected to be clear with a temperature around 63°F and light winds of 4 mph, providing ideal conditions for a high-stakes passing duel.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Picks & Prediction

• Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs (-166) at DraftKings
• Over/Under: Under 46.5 (-108) at FanDuel

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This AFC West showdown, despite its neutral international location, is defined by overwhelming historical trends that are impossible to ignore. The Kansas City Chiefs are not just the defending AFC champions; they are the Chargers’ kryptonite.

Kansas City has won seven consecutive games in this series and is an astounding 18-1 straight up in their last 19 games as a favorite. That level of consistency, especially from a team that travels well and is led by the unflappable Patrick Mahomes, provides a strong foundation for my primary pick.

The Chargers, conversely, have been abysmal when cast in the underdog role, losing their last 11 such games outright and posting a horrid 1-8 ATS record in their last nine games as an underdog of fewer than seven points.

With Justin Herbert at the helm, the Chargers always possess the potential for an upset, but their inability to close out tight games against elite competition remains a significant concern until proven otherwise. The Chiefs’ offensive line should be able to mitigate the Chargers’ pass rush just enough for Mahomes to exploit a secondary that will be under constant stress.

The total has been bet up by two full points, from 44.5 to 46.5, due to early NFL public betting action on the over. The head-to-head history screams under, though. The last four meetings between these teams have all stayed under the total; familiarity between division rivals often leads to more methodical, defensive-oriented contests.

I’m fading the line move and siding with the established trend.

KC vs LAC Betting Lines & Odds Movement

While the spread has remained firm at -3.5, the moneyline has seen notable movement in favor of the Chiefs, shifting from an opening number of -155 to its current -170 price at ESPN Bet. This indicates that early and consistent money has backed the defending AFC champions to win outright. After removing the vig, the implied win probabilities give the Chiefs a 60.6% chance, leaving the Chargers with just 39.4%.

The moneyline shift reflects the market’s confidence in Kansas City’s proven ability to win, particularly in primetime and against a Chargers team that has struggled mightily in this series.

The line movement on the total (from 44.5 to 46.5) presents a value opportunity. The Chiefs’ defense has historically found ways to contain the Chargers’ offense just enough to keep scores down.

Odds as of 9:10 am ET at ESPN Bet. New users can claim the ESPN BET promo code ahead of NFL Week 1.