Chiefs vs Chargers Prediction, Prop Picks & Closing Odds

• The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-point favorites in this neutral-site Week 1 matchup in São Paulo, Brazil
• Kansas City has dominated this AFC West rivalry, winning seven consecutive games against the Chargers
• See my Chiefs vs Chargers prediction, the top player-props to target, and the closing odds for KC vs LAC

The second game of the 2025 NFL season has an international flourish as two AFC West powers clash in São Paulo, Brazil, at 7:00 pm ET on Friday night. The Kansas City Chiefs (15-2), looking to rebound from a disappointing Super Bowl loss, bring their high-powered offense south of the equator to face the revamped Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at Corinthians Arena, an outdoor stadium usually used as a soccer field.

Patrick Mahomes, who orchestrated an offense that averaged 22.6 points per game last season, will look to start a new championship campaign on the right foot.

Standing in his way is Justin Herbert and a Los Angeles Chargers squad with a new identity. Herbert, who posted a stellar 101.7 passer rating with 23 touchdowns to just three interceptions in 2024, now operates within a more physical, ground-oriented scheme. This primetime showdown on a neutral field offers a fascinating early test for both teams, pitting Kansas City’s proven championship pedigree against the Chargers’ new-look philosophy.

The table below sets out the latest Chiefs vs Chargers odds, including the best-available price for the spread, moneyline, and total. Under the table, find the main player props for tonight’s game and my favorite Chiefs vs Chargers picks.

Go to: KC vs LAC Odds | KC vs LAC Props | KC vs LAC Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Odds

Kansas City Chiefs is a field-goal favorite almost across the board. The lone exception is ESPN Bet, which is offering LAC +3.5 at -125 odds. BetMGM has the best ATS price on KC at -110. On the moneyline, ESPN Bet and bet365 both have the Charger moneyline at +145, which is the best price on the board at the moment. DraftKings has the best odds on a KC victory at -166.

There is almost no variation on the total. Every book has the O/U at 47.5 with only slight adjustments in price.

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The Chiefs were only -155 favorites when the line opened back in May, while the total was just 45.5.

Chiefs vs Chargers Betting Trends

The Chiefs are an incredible 18-1 straight-up in their last 19 games as a favorite, and have won seven in a row against the Chargers.

Despite the offensive talent KC has been stacked with for years, the last four meetings between the Chiefs and Chargers have gone under the total.

Key Matchups to Watch

Running Game vs Run Defense

This matchup features a clash of styles. The Kansas City Chiefs rely on the violent, decisive running of Isiah Pacheco, who spearheads an attack that will test a Los Angeles run defense that surrendered 117.5 yards per game last season. The Chargers’ ability to control the line of scrimmage will be crucial in forcing long third downs.

The Los Angeles Chargers are expected to feature a more robust ground-and-pound attack this year. Their retooled backfield will be a stiff test for a disciplined Kansas City run defense that was one of the league’s best in 2024, allowing a stingy 101.8 yards per game and only 4.1 yards per carry.

Offensive Line vs Pass Rush

Both teams boast elite pass-rushing talent. The Los Angeles Chargers’ Khalil Mack will look to exploit any weakness in the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive tackles and disrupt Mahomes’ rhythm.

Conversely, the interior of the Chargers’ line will have its hands full with Chris Jones, whose ability to collapse the pocket can single-handedly wreck a game plan. The winner of these trench battles will dictate the flow of the game.

KC vs LAC Player Props

Mahomes’ passing yards line is set at 251.5, a significant jump from his 222.4 yards-per-game average in 2024, suggesting oddsmakers expect him to air it out in the season opener. Herbert’s line of 231.5 is much closer to his 227.6 average from last season, reflecting the uncertainty around his role in a new, potentially run-heavier offense.

NFL player props as of September 5, 2025 from DraftKings.

Travis Kelce’s receiving yardage line seems particularly low at 49.5, especially with the Chiefs missing a key receiver. He will be the focal point of the passing attack. For the Chargers, rookie Ladd McConkey has a surprisingly high line of 71.5 yards, indicating he’s expected to be Herbert’s top target from day one. Isiah Pacheco’s rushing line of 48.5 could be a value against a Chargers defense that has struggled to contain physical runners.

KC Chiefs vs LA Chargers Picks & Prediction

The historical trends in this matchup are impossible to ignore. The Kansas City Chiefs have not just won seven straight against the Los Angeles Chargers; they have consistently performed when expected to win, boasting a remarkable 18-1 record as a favorite in their last 19 contests.

The Chargers, conversely, have been abysmal as underdogs, losing their last 11 games outright in that role and posting a dismal 1-8 ATS record when getting less than a touchdown. Erasing those deep-seated trends in Week 1 against an elite opponent is a tall order.

Quarterback play will, as always, be paramount. Patrick Mahomes is a master of navigating chaotic pockets and exploiting defensive weaknesses, a skill that will be critical against the Chargers’ aggressive pass rush. Justin Herbert has all the physical tools, but he faces a complex defensive scheme from the Chiefs that has historically given him trouble. With the Chargers installing a new offense, early-season execution could be choppy, giving the edge to the continuity and championship experience of Kansas City.

. With the Chargers aiming for a more physical, ball-control identity and the Chiefs missing a key deep threat, another lower-scoring, grind-it-out affair seems likely. The Chiefs’ defense remains a top-tier unit, and they have the personnel to control the Chargers’ revamped run game. Ultimately, Kansas City’s consistency and proven ability to win in any environment make them the safer bet to cover the short spread.

Picks:

• Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-115)
• Under 47.5 (-115)
• Travis Kelce Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)