French Open Odds, Predictions & Expert Picks for Monday, May 25

Published: May 24, 2026 at 5:58 pm EDT

Tommy Paul celebrates winning a point — Mar 25, 2026; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Tommy Paul of the United States reacts during his match against Arthur Fils of France in the quarter finals of the men’s singles at the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images

My model backs Tommy Paul to cover the -8.5 game spread on the clay at Roland Garros
Frances Tiafoe vs Eliot Spizzirri projects heavily toward under 30.5 total games
See the top French Open picks and predictions for Monday, May 25

The iconic clay courts of Roland Garros are primed for an electrifying slate of Round of 128 action on Monday, May 25, with the first matches starting at 05:00 am ET and the final bout taking the mat at 2:15 pm ET.

Today’s card presents a fascinating landscape of heavy favorites and unpredictable underdogs looking to score an early knockout. The home crowd will be treated to thrilling all-French storylines, headlined by a favored Ugo Humbert grappling with Adrian Mannarino, and a toss-up finale between Hugo Gaston and Gael Monfils. My focus is strictly on identifying true value in the moneyline, spread, and total markets, avoiding exorbitant juice.

French Open Men’s Singles Odds for May 25

Finding the right betting value requires sifting through the numbers across the board. Here is a complete breakdown of the moneyline, game spread, and total games for every Round of 128 matchup on the schedule on Monday:

Francisco Cerundolo (-602) vs Botic Van de Zandschulp (+400) | Spread: Cerundolo -7.5 | Total: 33.5
Yibing Wu (+100) vs Marcos Giron (-125) | Spread: Giron -0.5 | Total: 39.5
Ugo Humbert (-704) vs Adrian Mannarino (+450) | Spread: Humbert -7.5 | Total: 33.5
Rinky Hijikata (+1000) vs Tommy Paul (-2000) | Spread: Paul -8.5 | Total: 29.5
Ignacio Buse (+220) vs Andrey Rublev (-275) | Spread: Rublev -5.5 | Total: 36.5
Casper Ruud (-800) vs Roman Safiullin (+500) | Spread: Ruud -7.5 | Total: 31.5
Mariano Navone (-602) vs Jenson Brooksby (+400) | Spread: Navone -6.5 | Total: 34.5
Emilio Nava (+102) vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (-102) | Spread: Ugo Carabelli -0.5 | Total: 37.5
Thanasi Kokkinakis (+240) vs Terence Atmane (-300) | Spread: N/A | Total: N/A
Aleksandar Kovacevic (+700) vs Rafael Jodar (-1205) | Spread: Jodar -7.5 | Total: 32.5
Jaume Munar (+117) vs Hubert Hurkacz (-117) | Spread: Hurkacz -1.5 | Total: 39.5
Roberto Bautista Agut (+300) vs Brandon Nakashima (-400) | Spread: Nakashima -5.5 | Total: 37.5
Eliot Spizzirri (+700) vs Frances Tiafoe (-1205) | Spread: Tiafoe -8.5 | Total: 30.5
Stan Wawrinka (+130) vs Jesper De Jong (-163) | Spread: De Jong -2.5 | Total: 38.5
Pablo Carreno Busta (+300) vs Jiri Lehecka (-400) | Spread: Lehecka -5.5 | Total: 36.5
Alexander Shevchenko (+138) vs Alex Michelsen (-175) | Spread: Michelsen -3.5 | Total: 36.5
Luca Van Assche (-138) vs Patrick Kypson (+110) | Spread: Van Assche -1.5 | Total: 37.5
Marton Fucsovics (+175) vs Matteo Berrettini (-225) | Spread: Berrettini -3.5 | Total: 38.5
Alex de Minaur (-1408) vs Toby Samuel (+800) | Spread: de Minaur -7.5 | Total: 32.5
Arthur Rinderknech (-275) vs Jurij Rodionov (+220) | Spread: Rinderknech -4.5 | Total: 36.5

Note: Odds as of May 24 from bet365 and Caesars. Prematch lines are dynamic and subject to shift up until the first serve.

French Open Picks & Predictions Today

Match	Pick	Best Odds
Yibing Wu vs Marcos Giron	Marcos Giron Moneyline	-117 at Kalshi
Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul	Tommy Paul -8.5 Spread	-110 at bet365
Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe	Under 30.5 Total Games	-108 at Kalshi
Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel	Alex de Minaur -7.5 Spread	-110 at bet365

Claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code.

Marcos Giron Moneyline (-117 at Kalshi) vs Yibing Wu

Prediction Markets

Giron vs Wu Pick

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Marcos Giron to Win

54%

Predict

My model projects Giron as a 55% favorite on clay, aligning perfectly with the baseline projection. Rather than grappling with the -0.5 game spread, locking in the pure moneyline at -125 is the optimal route. Giron has the baseline stamina to keep Wu in the clinch during long rallies and secure the victory.

Although Wu has posted an impressive 72.4% win rate over the last 52 weeks – largely bolstered by his dominance at the Challenger/ITF level – his lack of proven success on the main ATP tour and his relative inexperience on clay make him a riskier prospect for bettors compared to the seasoned Giron.

Tommy Paul -7.5 Games (-110 at bet365) vs Rinky Hijikata

Tommy Paul steps onto the court as a heavy-handed force, boasting a massive 94.1% model win probability. At -2000 on the moneyline, backing Paul straight up offers almost zero viable return on investment.

A -8.5 spread requires Paul to break Hijikata’s serve repeatedly, but given the overwhelming statistical divergence in their clay-court play, I expect Paul to deliver a quick knockout blow in straight sets.

Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe Under 30.5 Games (-108 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Tiafoe vs Spizzirri Pick

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Under 30.5 Total Games

52%

Predict

Spizzirri is severely outmatched and will struggle to keep Tiafoe at striking distance during baseline exchanges. Because my model indicates Tiafoe has a 91.0% chance of an outright win, and historical trends for heavy favorites holding a > 90% win probability strongly correlate with swift straight-set victories, under 30.5 games is the analytical play.

Expect Tiafoe to dictate the pace and secure a swift victory, tapping out Spizzirri’s defense before the total game count climbs.

Alex de Minaur -7.5 Games (-110 at bet365) vs Toby Samuel

Rounding out today’s card is Alex de Minaur to cover -7.5 against 23-year-old Briton Toby Samuel.

De Minaur’s elite court coverage will suffocate Samuel, forcing a barrage of unforced errors. Laying the -7.5 game spread is the logical angle here, as Samuel lacks the offensive firepower to land a counter-strike against de Minaur’s relentless return game.

Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

NFL NBA MLB NHL NCAAF NCAAB Politics Tennis MMA Sportsbooks Gambling