UFC Noche Odds, Predictions & Best Bets (Saturday, Sep. 13)

• Saturday’s UFC Noche features 14 fights, including the main event between Jean Silva and Diego Lopes
• Silva is a huge favorite in the UFC Noche odds, while Carlos Diego Ferreira is a can’t-miss underdog
• Check out my UFC Noche predictions and best bets for multiple underdogs offering serious value

The UFC’s annual Noche celebration moved from Mexico City to San Antonio’s Frost Bank Center this Saturday. While the location changed, the opportunity for making money with UFC picks hasn’t.

Jean Silva is a big favorite against Diego Lopes in the main event, but I see better value in other fights on this 14-bout card. The action starts early in San Antonio, with prelims at 3 pm ET and the main card at 6 pm ET on ESPN+.

Here are my UFC Noche predictions and best bets for the fights offering the best betting value.

UFC Noche Odds (Sep. 13)

The heaviest favorite on the card is Tatiana Suarez at -490, giving her an implied probability of 83% to beat Amanda Lemos. Alessandro Costa (-420) and Dusko Todorovic (-370) round out the biggest favorites, though both have shown vulnerabilities that make their steep prices questionable.

The closest fight on paper is Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva, essentially a pick’em at -120/+100. The best value often shows up on the preliminary cards, where the betting public pays less attention, and lines can be softer.

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Odds as of September 11th at Caesars. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Noche on Saturday.

Silva vs Lopes Prediction

The Fighting Nerds had a tough weekend, with Carlos Prates and Caio Borralho both losing as favorites. Now Silva faces his first main event against an opponent who recently went 25 minutes with Alexander Volkanovski.

That’s championship-level experience Silva hasn’t seen yet. He’s finished all five of his UFC opponents, but none had Lopes’ toughness or wrestling skills. Lopes has proven he can weather early pressure and take control late, just like he did against Dan Ige and Brian Ortega.

First-time main event jitters are real, especially against someone who just fought for a title. The -230 price on Silva feels too steep for someone facing this level of competition for the first time.

• Silva vs Lopes Best Bet: Diego Lopes (+190)

Ferreira vs Hernandez Prediction

The books have this as a pick’em, but there’s clear value on Ferreira at plus money. For starters, look at the competition level. Ferreira went competitive rounds with Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush before falling late. That’s elite-level experience Hernandez doesn’t have.

Tale of the Tape

Hernandez follows a predictable pattern. He comes out hot, throws everything in round one, then fades when veterans make him work. Jim Miller and Francisco Trinaldo both followed this blueprint successfully. Ferreira fits that same veteran profile.

The knockout of Michael Johnson shows Ferreira still has serious power. At 40, he’s obviously not getting younger, but his technical striking and submission threats remain dangerous. Against someone coming off a short turnaround who tends to fade late, I’ll take the proven commodity at plus money.

• Ferreira vs Hernandez Best Bet: Carlos Diego Ferreira (+115)

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Aguilar vs Gurule Prediction

This line seems off. Aguilar has multiple years of UFC experience with a knockout of Shannon Ross and dangerous moments against top competition. He nearly submitted Tatsuro Taira, which shows legitimate UFC-level skill.

Gurule? He’s 0-1 in the UFC after getting knocked out by Ode Osborne in his debut. Why the books have someone with zero UFC wins favored over an established veteran is beyond me.

Aguilar has clear ways to win. He could land a big overhand right or catch a guillotine if Gurule goes for a takedown. Both are realistic against someone who hasn’t proven he belongs at this level.

• Aguilar vs Gurule Best Bet: Jesus Aguilar (+190)

Pereira vs Rendon Prediction

The UFC doesn’t sign 19-year-olds directly to the main roster without seeing something special. They’ve given Alice Pereira a perfect debut matchup against Montserrat Rendon, who’s 36 years old with a negative striking differential in the UFC.

Rendon’s lone UFC win came via split decision, and she’s shown nothing that suggests she can handle athletic prospects. The 17-year age gap is massive in MMA. Pereira’s power and speed should be obvious from the opening bell.

• Pereira vs Rendon Best Bet: Alice Pereira (-145)

Coria vs Costa Prediction

The line movement tells the story here. Coria opened near +400 but sharp money has bet him down significantly. Training at H-Town Combat Club with Joshua Van has improved his boxing substantially.

Costa at -420 feels like the books overreacting to name value. Both fighters can be hit, but Coria throws cleaner combinations and isn’t afraid to trade in the pocket. At this price, he’s worth a shot.

• Coria vs Costa Best Bet: Alden Coria (+330)

UFC Noche Quick Picks

• Carlos Diego Ferreira (+115) – Best value on the card against fading Hernandez
• Jesus Aguilar (+190) – Proven veteran over winless prospect
• Diego Lopes (+190) – Championship experience in five-round fight
• Alice Pereira (-145) – UFC’s confidence in teenage prospect speaks volumes
• Alden Coria (+330) – Sharp money moving this line for a reason
• Tatiana Suarez Under 2.5 Rounds (-135) – Wrestling mismatch should end early

The betting lines for UFC Noche have created multiple opportunities, particularly with proven veterans getting plus money against overvalued prospects. Ferreira at even money against Hernandez is the best spot on the card.

While I’m laying the juice with the teenage sensation Pereira, I’m targeting several male underdog fighters with proven UFC records. In MMA, experience counts, so backing veterans who’ve faced top competition gives you solid value this Saturday.