Friday College Football Picks – Best Bets for Sept. 12

• Thursday’s appetizer is done, and Friday brings five college football games with betting value
• Arizona’s defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown, while Kansas State sits 0-3 ATS
• See below for my three best bets for Friday Week 3 college football action

NC State handled Wake Forest on Thursday to get Week 3 of College Football started. Now Friday serves up the main course with five games, including three conference matchups worth your betting bankroll. The September 12 schedule kicks off at 3:30 with Indiana facing Indiana State and builds to a primetime doubleheader on FOX and BTN.

The spotlight shines brightest on the Big 12 battles. Colorado takes their quarterback carousel to Houston at 6:30 ET on ESPN, then Kansas State tries to stop the bleeding at Arizona at 9:00 on FOX. UCLA desperately needs a win hosting New Mexico at 10:00 on BTN. Smart money has already moved these lines, and there’s still value if you know where to look.

After analyzing the Friday CFB matchups, odds and line movement, three bets stand. Here are my top picks for Friday’s college football games on September 12.

Friday College Football Picks – Best Bets for Sept. 12

All college football odds as of Sept. 12 from ESPN Bet. Claim the ESPN Bet promo code to sign up and tail our Friday Night CFB picks.

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Friday College Football Pick #1: Arizona +1.5

Kansas State enters Friday night as one of college football’s biggest disappointments. They’re 0-3 against the spread, including a stunning outright loss as 17-point home favorites to Army last week. Now they travel to face an Arizona defense that hasn’t allowed a touchdown through two games while creating seven turnovers.

Noah Fifita looks like the best quarterback in this matchup by a wide margin. He’s completing 64.7% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero picks through two games. Compare that to Avery Johnson, who managed just 246 total yards against Army and has been bottled up on the ground with only 78 rushing yards all season.

The revenge angle is massive here. Kansas State embarrassed Arizona 31-7 last year with Johnson rushing for 110 yards. But Arizona returns 17 starters from that team, and they’re playing angry. They’ve outscored opponents 88-9 and haven’t been tested yet.

This line opened at Kansas State -2.5 and has crashed down to -1.5. The market knows Kansas State has major offensive line injuries, and their linebacker corps is banged up. Arizona’s ground game is averaging 166.5 yards at 4.6 per carry. They should control this game at home.

There’s a fascinating historical trend at play too. Home teams between +3 and -3 in Week 3 who started 2-0 with 40+ points in each win are 14-0 straight up since 1998. Arizona fits perfectly.

• Best Bet: Arizona +1.5 (-110) at ESPN Bet

Friday College Football Pick #2: Colorado/Houston Under 44.5

Houston’s defense has been dominant through two games, allowing just nine total points. Now they face Colorado’s third-string quarterback Ryan Staub, who’ll make his first career start on the road. That’s a tough assignment against the nation’s second-ranked pass defense.

The Cougars are giving up just 78 passing yards per game and own the nation’s second-ranked pass defense. Their front seven has been getting after quarterbacks with five sacks already. Colorado’s offensive line has allowed six sacks and now protects a guy who was buried on the depth chart two weeks ago.

Houston’s offense won’t light up the scoreboard either. They’re methodical and prefer to grind out wins on the ground. Dean Connors rushed for 132 yards against Rice, and they’ll lean on him again facing Colorado’s terrible run defense that’s allowing 202 yards per game.

Willie Fritz wants to shorten the game and let his defense suffocate opponents. Conner Weigman has been efficient but conservative, and Houston was actually trailing Rice 7-3 after the first half before pulling away. This game profiles as an ugly, low-scoring Big 12 defensive battle.

The total opened at 43.5 and has only inched up to 44.5 despite some over money. Both teams want to run the ball and play defense. The humidity in Houston on Friday night won’t help the pace either. I predict this one goes under by about a touchdown.

• Best Bet: Colorado/Houston Under 44.5 (-110) at ESPN Bet

Friday College Football Pick #3: New Mexico/UCLA Under 52.5

Both teams have struggled offensively, and this total remains inflated. UCLA has scored 14 points or fewer in both games while converting just 20.8% of their third downs. New Mexico managed only 32 points against Idaho State despite being three-touchdown favorites. The short week won’t help either offense find rhythm.

The total has already crashed from 55.5 to 52.5, but there’s more room to fall. UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava is averaging just 195.5 yards per game with more interceptions (2) than passing touchdowns to his own receivers. The Bruins were down 23-3 to UNLV at one point last week.

New Mexico will try to control the clock with Scottre Humphrey running against UCLA’s terrible run defense that’s allowing 217 yards per game. But the Lobos have one of the youngest rosters in FBS with just three returning offensive starters. They won’t be able to sustain drives consistently.

DeShaun Foster’s UCLA teams have gone under in five of their last seven home games. They want to play slow and grind it out, but they can’t execute in the red zone. New Mexico’s games have both gone under this season as well.

Friday night at the Rose Bowl will feature two teams that can’t throw the ball effectively. The weather will be perfect, but the offenses likely won’t be. Take the under before it drops more.

• Best Bet: New Mexico/UCLA Under 52.5 (-110) at ESPN Bet