UFC Perth Odds & Expert Fight Night Predictions – Ulberg vs Reyes Card

• Saturday’s UFC Fight Night heads to Perth with light heavyweight contenders Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes in the main event
• Ulberg checks in as a -265 favorite while Reyes comes back at +215
• Check out complete UFC Perth odds, plus my UFC Fight Night predictions for Ulberg vs Reyes card

The UFC returns to Australia for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event between Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes. Online sportsbooks aren’t giving Reyes much of a chance, but the former title challenger’s recent finishing streak makes him dangerous. That said, I’m looking at other spots on this card for better value than laying heavy juice on Ulberg’s moneyline.

Saturday’s card kicks off early from RAC Arena in Perth with prelims starting at 7 pm ET and the main card dropping at 10 pm ET on ESPN+.

Here are the UFC Perth odds at DraftKings, plus my top UFC Fight Night predictions for both the main card and prelims.

UFC Perth Odds – Main Card

Odds as of September 24th at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

In the UFC Perth Fight Night odds, Ulberg sits as the heaviest main card favorite at -265, giving him an implied probability of 72.6% to defeat Reyes.

Sharp money has been moving on several underdogs throughout the card, with Matthews shortening from -125 to -145 and Campbell flipping from underdog to -180 favorite.

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Ulberg vs Reyes Prediction

Reyes has been on a tear lately with three straight finishes, but context matters here. Dustin Jacoby was sliding at 1-3, Anthony Smith fought emotionally compromised after his corner man’s death, and Nikita Krylov had been out for two years before getting slept by Bogdan Grad in his next fight. The competition level isn’t what it seems on paper.

Ulberg vs Reyes Tale of the Tape

Ulberg has evolved into a patient sniper since his early UFC days. His last two fights went the distance against Jan Blachowicz and Volkan Oezdemir, showing he can win rounds without taking risks. That disciplined approach should frustrate Reyes, who needs to land his big left hand early to have success.

The books expect a finish inside 2.5 rounds, but Ulberg’s recent track record suggests otherwise. He’s content to pick his shots from range and bank rounds. Reyes has the power to change that, but five rounds is a long time for him not to fade against a technical striker.

• Ulberg vs Reyes Pick: Fight goes Over 2.5 rounds (+120)

Matthews vs Magny Prediction

Can you believe these two have never fought? Matthews has been in the UFC since 2014 with 22 fights. Magny’s been here just as long with 35 fights. Yet this is their first meeting, and it comes at the perfect time for Matthews.

Magny’s chin is gone after brutal knockouts to Carlos Prates and Michael Morales. His lone recent win came against an aging Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos who looked every bit his 37 years. Meanwhile, Matthews is riding a three-fight win streak with improved striking and slick submissions.

The seven-year age gap matters here. Matthews is 31 and hitting his prime while Magny at 37 has absorbed too much damage. Yes, Magny has a seven-inch reach advantage, but Matthews’ speed and leg kicks will close that gap quickly. The Aussie crowd will be electric, and Matthews should feed off that energy for a statement win.

• Matthews vs Magny Pick: Jake Matthews Moneyline (-145)

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UFC Perth Odds – Prelims

Odds as of September 24th at DraftKings.

The prelims feature several Aussie and Kiwi fighters looking to defend home turf. Navajo Stirling comes in as the biggest prelim favorite at -245, though his lackluster recent performances have kept the line from ballooning further. The real value lies in the finishing props rather than the straight moneylines.

Stirling vs Bellato Prediction

Navajo Stirling hasn’t blown anyone away in his two UFC wins, but Rodolfo Bellato presents the perfect style matchup for a breakout performance. Bellato eats a whopping six significant strikes per minute with just 45% defense – that’s asking to get knocked out.

Stirling’s 79-inch reach and improving power should overwhelm Bellato, who tends to overextend on wild swings. The Aussie is the sharper, more technical striker who knows how to set traps. When Bellato inevitably lunges forward, Sterling will counter clean and finish him against the fence.

• Stirling vs Bellato Pick: Navajo Stirling by KO/TKO (+150)

UFC Perth Quick Picks

For the rest of the UFC Perth card, I’m targeting specific spots where the odds don’t match the matchup.

Jimmy Crute by Submission (+250) offers value against Ivan Erslan, who’s been taken down three times in each UFC fight. Jonathan Micallef (+102) gets plus money despite his five-inch reach advantage and superior kicking game against Oban Elliott.

Props worth considering include Jenkins vs Taveras Over 2.5 rounds (-278) – both fighters are durable with different paths to win.

Colby Thicknesse (+130) is a live home dog with Volkanovski in his corner. For the degenerate parlay builders, stringing together Matthews, Stirling, and the Ulberg/Reyes over pays around +400.

Saturday’s Perth card rewards patience. The home crowd will be electric, but don’t force bets just because the Aussies are favored. Stick to the spots where style matchups create clear edges, and remember that underdogs have been cashing at a high rate on international cards this year.