Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks, Prediction & Updated Betting Lines
By Ryan Potts in NFL News
Published:
- The Ravens and Chiefs look to avoid falling to 1-2.
- Can Patrick Mahomes continue his dominance over the Ravens?
- Check out my Ravens vs Chiefs pick plus the updated betting lines below.
Week 4 of the NFL season heats up with a potential playoff preview as the Baltimore Ravens (1-2) head to Kansas City to face the Chiefs (1-2) on Sunday, September 28th. Arrowhead Stadium plays host at 4:25 PM ET on a CBS broadcast.
Read below for my Ravens vs Chiefs pick, the current betting lines, and three key players to watch.
BAL Ravens vs KC Chiefs Pick
- Chiefs +3 (-115 at bet365)
The Chiefs have not lost a home game to an AFC team since Christmas 2023, winning the last 10 straight, including a quartet of playoff wins. Meanwhile, the Ravens have not won at Arrowhead since 2012, losing the last three matchups.
In the Patrick Mahomes vs Lamar Jackson era, the Chiefs have won five of six matchups, with the only loss a one-point loss in Baltimore in 2021. If history is any indication, given the spread, the Chiefs are mortal locks to cover +3 as home underdogs.
I am backing the Chiefs to notch their first home win of the season.
Ravens vs Chiefs Predictions
Xavier Worthy’s Return
Worthy played one series in Week 1 before leaving with a shoulder injury. He had a solid rookie season, scoring 12 total touchdowns and eclipsing 1,000 total yards, including playoffs last year. He offers a unique speed element, even moreso than speedsters Tyquan Thornton and Hollywood Brown.
With a three-headed speed monster on the outside, expect Patrick Mahomes to connect on several deep balls. According to PFF, Mahomes has only hit on four of 15 passes beyond 20 yards this season.
Concerning Ravens Interior
On Saturday, the Ravens placed both Nnamdi Madubuike and Broderick Washington on injured reserve. While Washington has been a non-factor, Madubuike will be sorely missed. The Chiefs have yet to run the football effectively. Still, with a diminished interior, this is the best opportunity for the likes of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt to get going.
The Ravens have allowed 149 rushing yards per game and a league-worst seven rushing touchdowns. Mahomes is Kansas City’s leading rusher with both Pacheco and Hunt averaging under four yards per rush.
Early MVP Statement
Both Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have two MVPs on their mantle, and they are in the mix to win it in 2025. Jackson is a consensus second-place in MVP odds while Mahomes is lurking in the pack behind the favorites.
Jackson has had a particularly strong statistical start to 2025. He leads the NFL in touchdown passes, yards per attempt, and passer rating despite Baltimore’s 1-2 start.
While Mahomes has not been quite as electric statistically, he has a strong argument from a “valuable” perspective. He has been the Chiefs’ best rusher, and he has often been the lone weapon in the offense.
Ravens vs Chiefs Betting Lines
The Ravens are slight road favorites in Kansas City with the total between 48.5 and 49.5 in the current NFL odds. Over bettors can take over 48.5 at Caesars for -110 odds. Under bettors can get under 49.5 on DraftKings for -124 odds.
Baltimore bettors can get the Ravens on the spread at -2.5 on Caesars for -115 odds or -145 on the moneyline, also at Caesars. For Kansas City bettors, take the Chiefs at +2.5 at DraftKings (+100 odds) or +126 odds at FanDuel on the moneyline.
Ravens vs Chiefs Recent Results
The Chiefs knocked off the Ravens in the calendar year of 2024, winning the AFC Title Game in Baltimore before beating them in the opening game of the 2024 regular season. Xavier Worthy scored a pair of touchdowns to put the Ravens away in the most previous matchup.
The Chiefs hold a lifetime 9-5 record against the Ravens, winning the last two games and six of the last seven games. Notably, the Chiefs’ 6-1 spurt coincides with Andy Reid’s tenure, including a 5-1 mark in the Patrick Mahomes era.
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