Miami vs Florida State Week 6 Odds, Early Prediction & Pick

• No. 18 Florida State hosts No. 3 Miami in the marquee college football game of the weekend on Oct. 4.
• Miami opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but that number has dropped to 4.5. It’s the first time both teams have met as ranked teams since 2013.
• I’ve got a special look at the odds, along with my pick and early Miami vs Florida State prediction.

Miami (4-0, 3-1 ATS) takes on rival Florida State (3-1; 3-1 ATS) in an ACC battle Oct. 4 at Doak Campbell Stadium on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET.

The Seminoles have won three of the last four meetings, but Miami and Heisman Trophy winner Cam Ward thumped the ‘Noles 36-14 last year.

I’ve got my eye on the early odds, along with my Miami vs Florida State prediction and pick in what should be the game of the weekend.

Miami vs Florida State Week 6 College Football Odds

Odds as of Sept. 30 at Caesars. Check out Caesars Rewards and join the Caesars Empire before the battle of Florida.

After starting off with the Canes as nearly a touchdown favorite, the point spread has steadied at 4.5 at most sportsbooks, with the total at 54.5.

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Miami is 2-2 over/under this season, while the Seminoles are 3-1. The last four meetings between these two teams have all hit the under. Miami has hit the over in eight of its last 13 games.

Florida State has won three of the last four meetings against the spread and straight up. The best early moneyline odds on Miami are at Caesars at -190 and BetMGM has Florida State moneyline at +165.

Miami leads the all-time series 36-33. This rivalry has given college football fans incredible moments with “Wide Right” in 1991 and “Wide Right II” in 1992, both Florida State losses on missed field goals at the end.

Miami vs Florida State Early Prediction

I’m predicting that Miami is going to run away with this one in Tallahassee, even though a lot of money is coming in on the Seminoles.

This was on target to be a Top 5 showdown until last week, when Florida State got upset by Virginia in double overtime. That takes some shine off this contest, but not all of it.

The Seminoles were 2-10 last year, but shocked the college football world with a season-opening beatdown of Alabama. Florida State then beat up on two cupcakes before the loss to Virginia, so I look at the Seminoles’ stats: they lead the nation in points per game (53) and yards per game (600), but I think those numbers are padded.

Florida State gave up 211 yards on the ground to Virginia, exposing a run defense that hadn’t been tested.

Miami vs Florida State Pick

• Miami -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

• Over 54.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

I’m picking Miami to cover the spread and score a lot of points. Miami QB Carson Beck has thrown for 972 yards and seven TDs. He looks much more comfortable than he did in his last days at Georgia. He has a pair of elite targets in Malachi Tony and CJ Daniels.

But the real reason I love Miami is the defense. Junior defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr. is the next Aaron Donald. He’s already shooting up NFL Draft boards.

I can’t get over the fact that this is still a Florida State team that was 2-10 last season, but they definitely have some talent. They have three players averaging over five yards a rush and USC transfer Duce Robinson has 346 yards receiving so far.

I know fans think the crowd and emotion at Florida State will carry the Seminoles, but this is an experienced Miami team, Carson Beck has already faced Notre Dame and played in the SEC. He shouldn’t get rattled.