NFL Predictions for Week 5: Expert Picks, Upsets, Predicted Scores & Betting Tips

Week 5 of the 2025-26 NFL season resumes Sunday morning with a matchup between the Vikings and Browns in London, and has a number of intriguing matchups throughout Sunday and into Monday night. Some of the more interesting games include: the desperate Ravens hosting the Texans without Lamar Jackson under center, defensive clashes between the Broncos and Eagles as well as Buccaneers and Seahawks, Jaxson Dart’s second start as he leads his Giants into New Orleans, and a Monday Night Football matchup that could drastically change the rest-of-season outlook for one of the Chiefs or Jaguars.

We are also now into bye weeks, as four teams do not play in Week 5. I have spent my week breaking down each of the remaining 13 games on the schedule, and laid out my predictions for each, as well as my SBD formula’s computer-generated score predictions. You’ll find the best bets to make in Week 5, upset predictions, and some brief weather forecasts and injuries to know before placing any of your own bets this Sunday.

I was just 8-6-1 on my picks last week, but still boast a 37-21-1 record for the season. My formula went 7-7-1, moving its season record to 34-24-1.

Week 5 NFL Predictions

To be clear, the table above presents straight up predictions. These are simply the teams I (and my formula) are predicting will win each of the 13 remaining games in Week 5. So, these would be moneyline bets. You can, however, figure out my formula’s spread picks based on its predicted scores, or you can also go read Zach Reger’s NFL picks against the spread for Week 5.

I have bolded the picks in the table above where I disagree with my formula. I had a 3-2 edge over my formula on picks I disagreed with last week. Let me quickly reiterate where we disagree and why. These are the games where we are picking opposite winners:

• Dolphins vs Panthers
• Texans vs Ravens
• Broncos vs Eagles
• Bucs vs Seahawks
• Chiefs vs Jaguars

I really don’t feel strongly about either team in the Dolphins at Panthers game, and my formula only has Carolina winning by slightly more than a field goal. But I just cannot bring myself to back the Panthers, especially after seeing the beating they took from an average-at-best Patriots team last week. I think my formula might be putting a little too much stock into Tyreek Hill being out. De’Von Achane will pick up the extra work and the Miami offense will put up enough points to beat a bad Carolina offense.

I can absolutely understand my formula picking the Texans as they face the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens. Losing an MVP-caliber QB is devastating – just ask the Bengals. But I think Baltimore is so well-coached that they will be able to adapt without Jackson. Cooper Rush will likely hand the ball off to Derrick Henry a lot, which I think is something Baltimore’s offense needs to do more in general. I think the Ravens beat the Texans in a low-scoring game.

While there are certainly a number of things to like about the Broncos so far, I am still seeing Bo Nix make too many mistakes and missing opportunities for big plays while running Sean Payton’s offense. Those mistakes aren’t enough to cost them games against the Titans and Burrow-less Bengals. But they played a massive part in their losses to the Colts and Chargers. I think that’ll be the case again in Week 5 against a good Eagles team. Give me Philadelphia to win.

The Seahawks have looked very impressive at times this season, but I don’t think they have played very good competition yet. The best team they have played is the 49ers and they lost 17-13. Seattle beat up on the lowly Saints, overwhelmed Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, and barely squeaked by against the Cardinals. The Bucs are a good team who is still trying to find their rhythm on offense. But I think their defense will give Sam Darnold problems and help Tampa Bay get the win.

Similar to the above, I don’t think the Jaguars have played great competition yet. Their win in San Francisco last week was impressive, but it seems clear Brock Purdy was not healthy, considering he missed TNF this week. I believe Xavier Worthy helps unlock the Chiefs offense, and will be a key part of a Kansas City victory in Week 5.

Keep reading below to see my best bets for Week 5, upset picks, as well as the weather and injuries you need to know!

NFL Best Bets for Week 5

My two favorite bets for Week 5 are: (1) Eagles moneyline, and (2) Chargers moneyline.

I briefly explained why I liked the Eagles above, but will quickly dive into a couple more data points. Denver’s defense has not been that great against the run this year, allowing 4.14 yards per rushing attempt, good for 16th in the NFL. But that number is a little tough to trust with two of their games coming against the Titans and Bengals, who rank 22nd and 32nd in rushing yards per attempt, respectively.

When they played the Colts, they allowed 5.22 yards per carry and gave up a total of 167 yards on the ground. I think the Eagles are going to be able to attack Denver’s defense in a very similar way with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.

I think Philadelphia will force the Broncos to play with a negative game script, or at least with more urgency than they may want to, and the Eagles are pretty good against the pass, while also being tied for 10th in takeaways per game. I love the Eagles record another win in Week 5.

I also really like the Chargers on the moneyline. I know a loss to the Giants is a great way to crush confidence in a team, but bad performances happen. LA outgained by nearly 100 yards in spite of only possessing the ball for a little over 24 minutes. The difference was 107 yards in penalties, -2 in the turnover battle, and an unwillingness to continue attacking on the ground where the Giants are very weak.

It was also a classic situation of a west coast team traveling to the east coast to play in the early block, which provides plenty of disappointing performances from the west coast teams.

Looking to their Week 5 opponent, I think the Chargers are athletic enough on defense to contain Jayden Daniels and slow Washington’s powerful rushing game. Give me LA to get back on track with a win!

Check out our NFL odds tool to shop for the best price available before placing either of these moneyline bets.

My formula’s computer-generated best bets, which I am basing off margin of victory, would be the Lions (predicted 29-point margin of victory), Colts (17.6 MOV), and Cardinals (17.5 MOV). However, none of those teams are going to pay much betting them on the moneyline, as they’re all heavy favorites.

When considering value and confidence from a predicted big margin of victory, my formula’s best bet becomes the Vikings, who are only 3.5-point favorites, so you can still get a decent return on the moneyline, and are predicted to beat the Browns by 15.4 points.

NFL Week 5 Upset Picks

The best upset picks for Week 5 in the NFL are:

• Buccaneers over Seahawks (-4.5)
• Giants over Saints (-2)

I also believe the Dolphins and Ravens will provide upsets in their matchups, but I don’t feel as strongly about them as I do the Buccaneers and Giants.

I know the Bucs will be playing without Bucky Irving and Mike Evans this week, but Chris Godwin will be playing his second game of the season and I like Rachaad White and Sean Tucker to fill in nicely for Irving. This one ultimately boils down to me not believing Sam Darnold can beat the Bucs defense.

Tampa Bay has been very good against the run, only allowing 3.33 yards per rushing attempt, the second-best in the NFL. So, I think Darnold will have to put the ball in the air to consistently move the chains against this defense, and I expect Todd Bowles to dial up the blitz – the Bucs blitz at the third-highest rate in the NFL. Darnold has the seventh-best passer rating in the NFL when kept clean (121.0), but it dips to 73.7 (16th) when under pressure, according to PFF. I like him to make some mistakes under pressure, which will help the Bucs pull off the upset.

I believe Jaxson Dart has provided this Giants team with a spark that they will build on. The formula they used to upset the Chargers last week – win the turnover battle, convert on third down thanks to staying ahead of down-and-distance, and dominate time of possession – will be great against a Saints team that averages just 4.44 yards per play on offense and gives up an average of 2.71 points per drive. I like Dart and Cam Skattebo to lead New York to another win.

My formula is only predicting three upsets this week: (1) the Broncos over Eagles, (2) Giants over Saints, and (3) Jaguars over Chiefs.

Most Impactful NFL Injuries to Know Before Betting Week 5

I am only including the most impactful injuries that will have a big affect on betting Week 5 games below. You can see full injury reports for each game by clicking on any matchup from the bar at the top of the screen.

Vikings at Browns

• JJ McCarthy, QB (Vikings): OUT

Carson Wentz will get another start for Minnesota and will have to be ready to deal with a lot of pressure. Not only is Cleveland’s defensive front pretty scary, but the Vikings are also missing three starting offensive linemen. I think the Browns defense is going to keep this one close as a result.

Texans at Ravens

• Lamar Jackson, QB (Ravens): OUT
• Roquan Smith, ILB (Ravens): OUT
• Marlon Humphrey, CB (Ravens): OUT
• Ronnie Stanley, LT (Ravens): Questionable
• Odafe Oweh, OLB (Ravens): Questionable
• Kyle Hamilton, S (Ravens): Questionable

As you can see, the Ravens are very banged up and will be without their leader on both sides of the ball when they take on the Texans. Both Lamar Jackson and Roquan Smith have been ruled out. We’re about to see just how good Baltimore’s coaching staff is.

Dolphins at Panthers

• Chuba Hubbard, RB (Panthers): OUT

With no Hubbard, the Panthers will turn their backfield over to Rico Dowdle. I don’t think there will be a massive impact here, as Carolina’s offense has been awful anyways.

• Tyreek Hill, WR (Dolphins): OUT

After a bad knee injury in Week 4, Tyreek Hill has been put on season-ending IR. Jaylen Waddle will be forced to assume the WR1 role in Miami, but I think De’Von Achane will be the one seeing even more touches from this.

Cowboys at Jets

• CeeDee Lamb, WR (Cowboys): OUT
• Tyler Guyton, LT (Cowboys): OUT
• Tyler Booker, RG (Cowboys): OUT
• Tyler Smith, LG (Cowboys): Questionable

Not only are the Cowboys still without CeeDee Lamb, but they’re going to playing without 2-3 of their starting offensive linemen as well. I know it’s the Jets they’re playing, but I wouldn’t put a ton of confidence in them this week.

Buccaneers at Seahawks

• Bucky Irving, RB (Bucs): OUT
• Mike Evans, WR (Bucs): OUT

The Buccaneers will be without two of their key playmakers in Week 5, but Rachaad White and Sean Tucker have filled in well in the past, while Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka are still a pretty good WR duo.

Weather Impacting Week 5 NFL Games

We’re not expected to see much weather impact on Week 5’s schedule, as 12 of the remaining 13 games are either played in a dome or expecting clear skies with minimal wind. The one game to watch is the Monday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Jaguars.

Depending which forecast you check, there is anywhere from a 25-71% chance of rain at kickoff. The worst of the downpour is currently expected to happen before kickoff, but there is a chance the rain continues throughout the game. The uncertainty has me holding off on making any bets for this game until we get a more clear view.

Heavy rain would likely change how both of these offenses will look to attack and could result in a sloppy game.