College Football Upset Predictions Week 7 – CFB Underdog Picks Today

• After another break-even week, let’s get back to my college football upset picks against the spread for Week 7

• I see another SEC team that could be in trouble, and I’m getting a lot of points on a big rivalry game in Ohio

• Read on for my Week 7 college football upset picks for Saturday, October 11

How many other prognosticators called the UCLA upset over Penn State? I did have that on my list last week. That goes down as one of my best picks of the season.

College football like so many other sports is based on emotion and confidence. And the old adage holds true, where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Look at what’s going on at North Carolina with Bill Belichick and UAB with Trent Dilfer giving ‘dot’ press conferences. One big part of spotting upsets is finding a school where the distractions are rising.

Let’s lock in with my special college football underdog picks today.

College Football Upset Predictions Today (Oct. 11)

CFB Upset Predictions: Ohio State at Illinois +14.5

One of my hard rules about finding an upset is give me a team at home getting a bunch of points against a ranked foe.

I know Ohio State is No. 1 and 5-0. They’re 8-1-1 against the spread in their last 10 games. They have covered the spread in last seven games against ranked teams. They walloped Illinois 52-14 last year.

So on the flipside, Illinois is 9-1 against the spread in its last 10 games. They’re averaging 37 points a game. Crowd noise impacts opposing offenses and I think Illinois can slow Ohio State down…a bit. I love the extra .5 on this one, because I think Illinois has a lot to play for.

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CFB Upset Predictions: Toledo at Bowling Green +10.5

Let’s stay in Ohio for our second upset special. These are two schools separated by just 25 miles. They call it the I-75 rivalry (we can do better than that). Toledo is 0-2 on the road this season. They’ve lost their last four games as road favorites and failed to cover in their last five games.

I believe the spread is this high because Bowling Green has lost two in a row convincingly, but they have beaten Toledo the last three times against the spread.

Bowling Green QB Drew Pyne is at his fourth stop: Notre Dame, Mizzou, Arizona State and now Bowling Green. Games are always close when rivals play.

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CFB Upset Predictions: South Carolina +9.5 at LSU

Last week in this space I wondered if the bloom was off the James Franklin rose at Penn State.

I think we can now safely say it is.

The same thing is happening to Brian Kelly at LSU. After two years of great offense and no defense, the No. 11 Tigers have a good defense and no offense. There have been rumors since August that Tigers QB Garrett Nussmeier is playing hurt.

LSU has won the last six meetings, but was lucky to get away with a three-point win in Columbia last year. South Carolina is healthier and has revenge on its mind. LSU might be a sinking ship.

CFB Upset Predictions: Iowa at Wisconsin +3.5

The over/under for this one is 37.5, and that still might be kind of high. Wisconsin is 2-3 and lost three straight and there’s some unhappy people in Madison with Badgers coach Luke Fickell.

Making matters worse, both teams are probably using back-up quarterbacks, but Iowa might get starter back Mark Gronowski back before kickoff. Gronowski is basically a running back taking snaps anyway.

  

  

    

      
Darren Cooper
      

        Sports Betting Dime • 
        October 10, 2025 at 7:39pm
      
    
  
  

    

      
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HomePointSpread +3.5
        
Spread
        
CFB • Iowa Hawkeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers
      
      

        
-117 on Underdog Sportsbook
        
SCHEDULED • 10/11/2025 
      
    
  
  See all 4 picks
  
  
Betslip #1760125162159-2715-284

Iowa won last year’s game 42-10, the four years before that, all the games were under 35 points. We know this one will be ugly, 9-6? 8-7? 3.5 points is huge for the home team here.