New Mexico vs Boise State Predictions, Picks & Lines for Saturday CFB
By Ryan Potts in College Football
Published:
- Boise State’s CFP chances are on life support after losing to Notre Dame
- New Mexico looks to beat Boise State for the first time in 10 years.
- Check out my New Mexico vs Boise State prediction as well as the updated betting lines
Two 3-2 Mountain West teams battle on the blue turf on Saturday night. The New Mexico Lobos take their 0-1 conference record to Idaho to face the Boise State Broncos (1-0 in conference). Albertsons Stadium in Boise hosts a 9:45 PM ET kickoff on Saturday, Oct. 11th, on an FS1 broadcast.
I’ve finalized my New Mexico vs Boise State prediction for Saturday night and provided the latest betting odds as kickoff approaches.
New Mexico vs Boise State Prediction
- Over 57.5 (-115, ESPNBet)
New Mexico’s three-game winning streak has been sandwiched between losses to Michigan in Week 1 and San Jose State last week. Unlike Boise State, New Mexico was able to slay a Power 4 team, clobbering UCLA in its third game of the season.
Jack Layne had been a steadying presence at quarterback for the Lobos before melting down with a three-interception game last week. He was able to add 344 passing yards and a rushing touchdown, but his two second-half interceptions undermined the Lobos’ comeback effort.
Former Iowa and Kansas State receiver Keagan Johnson had a breakout performance, catching 11 passes for 145 yards. He now leads the team in receiving (326 yards), passing tight end Dorian Thomas. Thomas leads the team with 28 catches and three touchdown receptions.
New Mexico’s rushing attack was bottled up last week, but they did score three times on the ground. The dynamic duo of Damon Bankston and Scottre Humphrey have eclipsed 500 yards as a pair this season. Bankston has also been a weapon in the receiving game, averaging just shy of 30 yards per game.
Defensively, the pair to watch is edge defender Keyshawn James-Newby and linebacker Jaxton Eck. Eck leads the team with 26 solo tackles and 46 total tackles. James-Newby leads the team with 3.5 tackles for a loss and 2.5 sacks.
Boise State’s season has not gone to plan. After a stunning run to the College Football Playoff last season, Boise State has already equalled its two losses from last season with a shocking blowout at South Florida and an expected beatdown against Notre Dame. The Broncos’ playoff hopes are not extinguished yet as they are 1-0 in conference play, but the flame gets dimmer by the week.
After an efficient season last season, quarterback Maddux Madsen has taken a step in the wrong direction. His interception rate has doubled, and his completion percentage has dipped below 60%. Fortunately for Madsen and the Broncos, Leonard Moore is not on the schedule the rest of the season.
While the Broncos will likely never be able to replace Ashton Jeanty, they have an effective cohort of backs, including Dylan Riley, Sire Gaines, and Malik Sherrod. Riley has been the most Jeanty-like of the bunch, leading the conference with six total touchdowns. He had a whopping five of them versus Air Force, racking up 255 yards on 21 touches.
Latrell Caples has led a competent group of receivers. His 21 catches and 292 yards pace the group, while Ben Ford leads the way with a trio of receiving touchdowns. Matt Lauter, last season’s leader in receiving touchdowns, has been a solid safety blanket when Madsen has looked underneath.
Ty Benefield is the star of the defense. The versatile safety leads the team with 25 solo tackles, 41 total tackles, and 5.5 tackles for a loss. He has added an interception and a forced fumble. He has earned a 70.0 or better PFF grade in all three of his seasons with the Broncos.
New Mexico vs Boise State Pick
- Over 57.5 (-115, ESPNBet)
Here are the primary reasons I’m picking the Over in New Mexico vs Boise State tonight:
- Games involving either team have hit the over at a 60% clip this season. Each of New Mexico’s last two games would have cleared 57.5 points, and three of Boise State’s games would have gone over.
- Boise State’s (lack of) tackling has kept drives alive for its opponents. Boise State has a bottom-10 PFF tackling grade, missing an average of 12.2 tackles per game. Repeat offenders include safety Zion Washington (eight missed tackles) and cornerback A’Marion McCoy (six missed tackles). New Mexico has missed 8.0 tackles per game, with Keyshawn James-Newby and Jaxton Eck each responsible for eight of them.
- Both teams have strong, but importantly, explosive ground games. Boise State has 28 explosive runs, while New Mexico has 19 explosive runs. Three different Broncos have a 40-yard rush and two different Lobos have a 50-yard rush. Even in run-oriented game scripts, either team is liable to break off a field-flipping run.
New Mexico vs Boise State Betting Odds
The sportsbooks have Boise State as heavy home favorites, with the total set between 57.5 and 59.5 points. Over bettors can get over 57.5 for -115 odds at ESPNBet. Under bettors can get under 59.5 at FanDuel for -115 odds.
Boise State bettors should take them -15.5 at ESPNBet (-110 odds) or -650 on the moneyline at FanDuel. New Mexico bettors should take them +17 at BetRivers (-122 odds) or +550 on the moneyline at Caesars.
New Mexico vs Boise State, Last Five Matchups
In one of the most lopsided conference games in the country, Boise State has won 13 of 14 lifetime meetings, last losing in 2015. Not only has Boise State won 13 games, but they have also tended to clobber the Lobos, winning games by 28 or more points five times in their active seven-game winning streak.
In their previous matchup, both teams had future NFL running backs score two touchdowns with Jacory Croskey-Merritt (now of the Commanders) and George Holani (now of the Seahawks) providing most of the scoring. Current Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green added a rushing touchdown for the Broncos
