Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Picks & Betting Lines for Monday Night Football

• The Bills are 4.5-point favorites over the Falcons on Monday Night Football
• Atlanta is allowing a league-low 244 yards per game to enemy offenses
• See my Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons prediction and pick, plus the latest betting lines for Monday Night Football

Fresh off their first loss of the season, the Buffalo Bills (4-1, 2-0 away) travel to Atlanta tonight to take on the Falcons (2-2, 1-1 away). Online sportsbooks expect Buffalo to bounce back per the latest Monday Night Football odds, but I’d think twice before backing them against the spread.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:15pm ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in Atlanta, GA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Bills vs Falcons Prediction

The Bills have held top spot in the Super Bowl 60 odds for the bulk of the season, but we’re starting to see some cracks in their armor. Let’s start on offense, where NFL MVP odds favorite Josh Allen and Co. were stymied last week by the Patriots defense. Buffalo was held to a season-low 20 points, and committed three turnovers. They were unable to generate many explosive plays, as New England forced them to sustain drives, and dink and dunk their way down the field.

Atlanta will eye a similar strategy, and I predict their defense will be capable of doing so. The Falcons are allowing a league low 244 yards per game, and just 135 passing yards per contest. Atlanta has surrendered only 14 plays of 20+ yards, the second fewest in football, and they’ve finally put together a formidable pass rush.

The Falcons blitz at the league’s highest rate, and have been getting home at an above average mark. If there’s a flaw in Allen’s game it’s when he’s under duress, as his efficiency drops off a cliff. Allen’s passer grade falls from 89.6 when clean to 54.6 under pressure, while his yards per attempt drops by over 3 yards.

Atlanta Falcons Defensive Stats

On the other side of the ball, Ed Oliver returns to a Bills defense that has been struggling to get stops. Buffalo has been especially bad versus the run this season, and my Bills vs Falcons prediction is banking on that continuing. Few teams rush the ball as well as Atlanta, led by superstar Bijan Robinson.

Bills vs Falcons Picks

Robinson is one of the game’s most elusive backs, and forces missed tackles at a high rate. He’s ripped off at least 100 yards from scrimmage in every game so far, and the Falcons would be wise to use plenty of motion and misdirection. Buffalo is surrendering 0.23 EPA per play versus motion at the snap, which is the third highest mark in the NFL.

Atlanta will need to lean run heavy in this matchup due to a shortage of weapons for Michael Pennix Jr. Number two receiver Darnell Mooney has already been ruled out, while Buffalo has limited number one wideouts to a bottom-10 production rate.

It’s worth noting Pennix Jr. has been significantly better at home this season than on the road. He’s posted a 15% higher completion percentage in his own stadium, while his passer rating is 50 points higher at home than as a visitor.

I’m grabbing the points with Atlanta as my Bills vs Falcons pick, expecting them to move the ball efficiently on the ground, while limiting big plays from Allen and the Buffalo attack.

BUF Bills vs ATL Falcons Betting Lines

Before making any Monday Night Football wager, be sure to consult the best football betting apps. We can get +4.5 on the Falcons at DraftKings, but plenty of other books still show +3.5’s. Atlanta is +230 to pull off the upset, while the total sits at 49.5.

According to the NFL public betting percentages, bettors are heavy on the Bills in this spot, which suits me just fine. They’re currently drawing 78% of the spread tickets, which means sportsbooks will be looking to fade the public just like me.

Odds as of Oct. 12 at DraftKings. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on MNF.