Picks, Player Props & Best Odds: Mariners vs Blue Jays (Game 6)

• Facing elimination in Game 6, Toronto sends rookie Trey Yesavage to the mound against the Seattle’s Logan Gilbert
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr and George Springer have great career stats against Gilbert
• See my favorite Mariners vs Blue Jays picks for the moneyline and total, plus the best player-props to bet, and latest Game 6 odds

With their backs against the wall, the Toronto Blue Jays (99-72, 56-29 home) host the Seattle Mariners (96-75, 42-43 away) in a do-or-die Game 6 of the American League Championship Series on Sunday night at the Rogers Center (first pitch at 8:03 pm ET).

Toronto will hand the ball to rookie Trey Yesavage (3.21 ERA, 1.43 WHIP in reg. season), who faces the monumental task of keeping his team’s season alive against a lineup that just crushed him. The Mariners, just one win away from their first World Series berth, counter with veteran right-hander Logan Gilbert (3.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in reg. season).

After taking a pitch off the knee in Game 5 on Friday, Toronto lead-off hitter George Springer is questionable for Game 6. But even with Springer less than 100%, the Mariners vs Blue Jays odds slightly favor the home team extending the series. Below, I have set out my favorite Mariners vs Blue Jays picks, the full list of player props and, lastly, the updated Game 6 odds and betting splits.

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Mariners vs Blue Jays Pick: Moneyline

• Toronto Blue Jays (-125) at BetMGM

The entire season for the Toronto Blue Jays comes down to this game, and the pitching matchup presents a fascinating dynamic. The Blue Jays have historically hit well against Logan Gilbert, and that continued in Game 2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr and George Springer have consistently done damage against him. In a must-win game at home, you can expect Toronto’s stars to be aggressive against a pitcher they see well.

I was very bullish on Yesavage ahead of Game 2 and got burned badly

The Blue Jays are also an impressive 15-4 (.789) at home after a loss in their last 19 such games, adding weight to the sharp money backing them to extend the series

TOR Blue Jays vs SEA Mariners Run-Total Pick

• Over 7.5 runs (-115)

The betting trends for this matchup overwhelmingly point in one direction: the over. The over has hit in the last four games in the series. The over is also 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these two clubs.

With Toronto’s offense having a clear historical advantage against Gilbert and Seattle’s lineup swinging hot bats, all signs point to runs being scored.

Mariners vs Blue Jays Player-Prop Pick

• Guerrero under 1.5 total bases (-115)

This bet isn’t a fade of Guerrero, who’s hitting .457 in the postseason with a 1.495 OPS and eight extra-base hits. It’s a bet on Seattle continuing to pitch around him, and even more so with Gilbert on the mound.

As you’ll see below, Guerrero has a 1.245 OPS against Gilbert in 17 ABs. Seattle manager Dan Wilson already showed a willingness to walk Guerrero whenever he gets the chance. That’s almost certain to continue tonight.

Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 6 Player Props

MLB player props are consensus lines as of 9:01am ET, October 19th.

I’ve already pegged Guerrero under 1.5 total bases as my favorite prop for Game 6. There’s also intriguing value in the pitcher props, particularly concerning Logan Gilbert. His earned-runs prop is set at a low 1.5, with the over juiced at -157. Given that Vladimir Guerrero Jr and George Springer have combined for four home runs and boast OPS marks over 1.200 against him, there’s a clear path for the Blue Jays to score early. Taking the over on Gilbert’s earned runs is a strong consideration.

The pitcher strikeout props list Yesavage at 4.5 with the over juiced, even though he managed just three Ks in Game 2.

Seattle Mariners Career Statistics vs Trey Yesavage

As discussed, the Mariners mashed against Yesavage in Game 2, the only time the rookie has faced any of the Seattle hitters. They went 4-for-14 with one home run (Julio Rodríguez) and three walks, generating a .944 OPS.

Yesavage only managed three Ks, getting Eugenio Suárez, Dominic Canzone, and Jorge Polanco each to whiff once.

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Logan Gilbert

The Jays have put together an elite .307 average against Gilbert with an above-average .847 OPS. Guerrero Jr has four extra-base hits in just 17 ABs (two doubles, two home runs), which is a big part of why I expect Seattle to do everything it can to pitch around Toronto’s most-dangerous hitter.

George Springer has a 1.171 OPS in 16 ABs, but he’s questionable for Game 6 after taking a fastball to the knee cap in Game 5, which led to the Toronto right fielder being replaced by Joey Loperfido.

Latest SEA Mariners vs TOR Blue Jays Game 6 Odds

As of 11:13 am ET, the best available Toronto moneyline was -124 at FanDuel, while the best Seattle price was +110 at bet365. The run total was as high as 8.0 (U -117) at DraftKings, making it the best option for under bettors, and as low as 7.5 (O -110) at FanDuel, making it the best option for over bettors.

Without the vig, the current moneyline odds five the Blue Jays a 53.7% implied win probability, narrowly ahead of the Mariners at 46.3%.

TOR/SEA Game 6 Odds Movement

The betting market has shown significant movement in favor of the Blue Jays. After opening near a pick’em with Toronto at -112, the line has shifted substantially to -124 or shorter. This move comes despite public betting data showing that 55% of moneyline bets are on the visiting Mariners. This is a classic case of reverse line movement, indicating that sharp, respected money is backing the Blue Jays at home in this must-win scenario.

The total has also seen movement, shifting from an opening price of +100 on over 7.5 to a more juiced -118, as 75% of the public bets anticipate a high-scoring game. The potential absence of George Springer (knee) from the Blue Jays lineup could impact the line, but for now, the market is backing Toronto’s offense to show up against a pitcher they have historically hit well.

Public Betting Splits: Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 6

The MLB public betting splits are siding with the Mariners on the moneyline, but as noted, the line has moved in the opposite direction toward the Blue Jays, suggesting sharp money is on the home team. The public is heavily backing the Blue Jays on the run line and overwhelmingly supports the Over, which aligns with the strong historical trends.