Packers vs Steelers Closing Odds & Expert Picks for SNF

• Winners of two in a row, the Green Bay Packers visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Week 8
• Pittsburgh QB Aaron Rodgers will finally play his first game in Green Bay after
• See the closing Packers vs Steelers odds and betting lines, plus my GB vs PIT expert picks

Two division-leaders clash on Sunday Night Football in Week 8 when the Green Bay Packers (4-1-1, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U) visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 nO/U) at Acrisure Stadium in what will be Aaron Rodgers’ first game against the team he piloted from 2005 to 2022.

Rodgers and the Steelers opened as 3.5-point home underdogs when the Week 8 NFL odds were posted last Sunday. A week later, the line has moved a full point towards Pittsburgh at many sportsbooks. The interactive graphic, below, shows the current Packers vs Steelers odds (moneyline, spread, and total). Under the graphic, I have set out my two favorite Packers vs Steelers picks for Sunday Night Football.

Closing Odds for Packers vs Steelers on SNF

At the time of publication, the best moneyline price on Green Bay was -154 at FanDuel, while the best-available Pittsburgh moneyline was +136 at DraftKings. Against the spread, bettors could get the Packers at -2.5 with -130 juice at DraftKings, and the Steelers at +3 (-117) at Caesars. The game total was 45.5 across the board with only minor variations in price. Bettors won’t get better than -110 on over 45.5 at bet365; DraftKings has the best under price at -102.

Odds commentary as of 5:03 pm ET. The odds in the graphic will update automatically with the best-available price for each betting market if the NFL odds move before kickoff.

The NFL public betting splits show Green Bay getting 57% of moneyline handle along with 673% of ML wagers. But the spread wagers are roughly inverted; Pittsburgh is getting 78% of ATS handle and 67% of ATS tickets, still catching a full field goal at some sportsbooks.

On the total, the public likes the over, with 68% of O/U handle and 51% of O/U bets on the over roughly three hours before kickoff.

GB Packers vs PIT Steelers Expert Picks

• Steelers +3.0 (-110) at Caesars
• Under 45.5 points (-102) at DraftKings

My two favorite Packers vs Steelers picks on SNF are Pittsburgh to cover as a field-goal underdog, and the game to stay under the 45.5-point total.

Pick #1: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.0

The Packers are 13-2-1 straight-up in their last 16 games as a favorite. But that gaudy win/loss record hasn’t translated into recent ATS success, especially away from home. The Packers have lost their last five road games against the spread. They’re also 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a road favorite.

Meanwhile the Steelers are 5-1 in their last six as a home underdog, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points.

Pittsburgh has also been a great bet at home against quality competition, going 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against winning teams.

Green Bay only picked up its first road win of the season in Week 7, earning a 27-23 verdict against a Cardinals team missing starting QB Kyler Murray. Prior to the win at Arizona, they had lost at Cleveland (13-10) as a 7.5-point favorite, and tied the Cowboys in a 40-40 shootout in Dallas as a 6.5-point favorite.

In sum, their play on the road this season has been anything but inspiring. The Steelers have only played two true home games, losing 31-17 to Seattle in Week 2 but bouncing back with a 23-9 win over Cleveland in Week 6, covering as 6.5-point chalk.

Pick #2: Under 45.5 Points

The Packers’ offense has been productive averaging 26.3 points per game but their ten-point performance at Cleveland was telling. Tonight, they’ll face another top-tier AFC North defense, one that sits ninth overall at PFF and fourth in pass rushing, specifically. Edge rusher TJ Watt, who had a quiet start to the season, is up to four sacks after recording at least half a sack in each of the last four games. Third-year linebacker Nick Herbig is having a breakout season with a team-high 4.5 sacks, just one off his career-best set last year.

Jordan Love has only been sacked ten times all season, but five of those came in the Cleveland game. Pittsburgh doesn’t quite have the same pass rush as the Myles Garrett-led Browns (who sit first at PFF); they’re not far off, though, and Green Bay’s offensive line hasn’t travelled terribly well so far this year.

With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the Steelers offense is plodding than prolific. The team sits a respectable 12th in the NFL in points per game, averaging exactly 25.0 PPG. That number is bolstered by 34 and 31-point performances against the Jets and Bengals, respectively, who site 24th and 32nd (i.e. last) in D-DVOA so far this season. The best defense they’ve faced (Seattle, which sits second in DVOA and seventh at PFF) held them to just 17 points at home.

With the Packers such a run-heavy team (they average the fourth-most running plays per game at 29.5), the clock is apt to keep churning, limiting possessions and keeping the score under the total.