FIU vs Missouri State Spread, Prediction & Picks for October 29

• Missouri State is a 3.5-point favorite over FIU in Conference USA action on Wednesday
• The Bears rank 114th in scoring, and 132nd in third down conversion rate
• See below for the FIU vs Missouri State spread, plus my prediction and picks for October 29

It’s a conference USA doubleheader on Wednesday night, with the second matchup featuring FIU (3-4, 1-2 CUSA) taking on Missouri State (4-3, 2-1 CUSA). The Bears have been pegged as home favorites per the latest college football odds, but I’m ignoring a side in this contest to focus on the total.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8pm ET from Robert W. Plaster Stadium, in Springfield, MO, with CBSSN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is the FIU vs Missouri State spread, plus my prediction and picks for October 29.

FIU vs Missouri State Spread

Missouri State is currently favored by 3.5 points and -175 on the moneyline. The Panthers come back as +145 underdogs, while the total sits at 51.

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Odds as of Oct. 28 at DraftKings and Bet365. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on college football.

Per the college football public betting trends, the over/under opened at 52.5, but early action drove the number down. The under is still drawing more action as of Tuesday evening, accounting for 62% of the total tickets.

FIU vs Missouri State Prediction

How online sportsbooks expect these two offenses to reach 51 points is a mystery to me. I get it, neither defense can compete with programs in the CFP odds conversation, but as bad as those units are, each offense is just as underwhelming.

Let’s start with the favorites. Missouri State ranks 114th in scoring and 132nd in third-down conversion rate. They barely average 3.0 yards per carry, while QB Jacob Clark has one of the highest turnover-worthy play rates at 4.4%. The senior has already been picked off eight times and has absorbed 18 sacks in his last five starts alone.

There’s not much to like about the FIU defense, but one thing they do excel at is forcing turnovers. The Panthers average 1.3 takeaways per game, and own a top-35 opponent INT rate.

On the other side of the ball, the most exploitable matchup belongs to FIU’s rushing attack. Led by standout back Kejon Owens, the Panthers average over 5.0 yards per carry and 188 rushing yards per game.

Kejon Owens Rushing Stats

Owens leads Conference USA in rushing yards per attempt (7.0) and ranks second in TD (7). He’s been a workhorse back all season, and lately his volume has been ramping up. He’s averaged 21 carries over the last two games, along with a touchdown and over 180 yards per contest.

The Panthers are going to lean on him relentlessly versus Missouri State, as the FIU passing game isn’t striking fear in anyone.

As for the matchup, it’s pristine and sets up for the Panthers to control the clock. The Bears are yielding 5.2 yards per carry so far, and rank 91st in defensive stop rate.

FIU vs Missouri State Picks

Missouri State does enter play riding a two-game winning streak, but those victories came over Middle Tennessee State and New Mexico State, who own the two worst rushing offenses in the conference. The last time they faced a team with a rushing pulse, Western Kentucky ran all over them.

Speaking of WKU, FIU is only one game removed from upsetting them, winning on the road as 9.5-point underdogs. The Panthers rushed for 249 yards in that matchup, and I’m betting they find similar success versus the Bears.

My official FIU vs Missouri State pick is under 51, but I think you can correlate that with the Panthers +3.5 for a +244 pay day. FIU doesn’t want this game to turn into a track meet, and are more than happy to bleed the clock with the run and keep this contest low scoring.