Wyoming vs Fresno State Prediction, Spread & How to Watch Saturday CFB

• The Fresno State Bulldogs are 2.5-point favorites to defeat the Wyoming Cowboys in a Mountain West grudge match
• This series has been decidedly one-sided in recent years in favor of the Bulldogs
• See below for my Wyoming vs Fresno State prediction, picks, and updated odds

It’s a Mountain West clash Saturday night between two teams desperate for a victory: the Wyoming Cowboys (4-5, 5-4 ATS) and Fresno State Bulldogs (6-3, 4-5 ATS).

Since 2012, these two squads have battled eight times, with Fresno State emerging victorious on six occasions, though Wyoming won the latest duel in 2023. The books believe the Bulldogs will grab their seventh win on the campaign, pegging them as slight home favorites in the College Football odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET from Valley Children’s Stadium in Fresno, California, with FS1 providing the broadcast coverage.

Wyoming vs Fresno State Prediction & Picks

• My prediction: Under 40.5 points (-110)

I’m going with 40 points or less being scored in this one, with both offenses not operating at peak performance, along with stingy defensive units. In Fresno State’s last four contests, three have resulted in less than 40 points, and that’s also occurred in Wyoming’s last two appearances. In addition, four of the last five skirmishes between Wyoming and Fresno State have resulted in 40 or fewer combined points.

The quarterback battle features a pair of sophomores in Kaden Anderson (Wyoming) against Carson Conklin (Fresno State). The former is a pure pocket passer, with a 58.7% efficiency, 11 TDs, 9 picks, and he’s coming off a 0 TD-3 INT struggle against San Diego State.

Fresno State has recently switched to Carson Conklin at pivot for the last two outings, replacing the ineffective E.J. Warner (10 TD, 9 INT). Warner’s line doesn’t tell the full story, as he was 0 TD-5 INT the first three games, but had 10 TDs to just 4 interceptions the last four outings, yet the Bulldogs made the change anyway.

Conklin hasn’t exactly been exceptional, going 30-for-63 with no touchdowns and two picks in the last two games. In Fresno State’s surprising 30-7 takedown of Boise State, Conklin had just 35 passing yards — it was more to do with three Broncos turnovers and their QB Maddux Madsen leaving early with injury that led to the Bulldogs’ W.

Three Cowboys running backs have more than 300 yards but max out at 450 (Samuel Harris), and a pair of Bulldogs are approaching 500 yards on the ground.

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Key Offensive & Defensive Stats (Out of 12 Mountain West Conference Teams)

Team defense is the calling card for both squads, as they’re very evenly matched, despite Wyoming not being quite as strong against the run. Their passing and rushing attacks aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire, as they aren’t in the upper echelon in the Mountain West.

Wyoming vs Fresno State Recent H2H History

Fresno State has typically gotten the better of Wyoming in their recent history, winning six of eight, though Wyoming won the latest duel last year. That was the first time in five matches that over 40 combined points occurred.

After winning their first two contests to begin the season, the Cowboys are 2-5 and Fresno State is 6-3 overall. Before the latest victory over the Broncos, the Bulldogs had lost two straight by a combined score of 72-21, including being shut out by the Aztecs 23-0.

In the National Championship odds, neither team is a threat to win it all, with the Ohio State Buckeyes the favorite at +200.

Wyoming vs Fresno State Spread

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Nov. 15.

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Fresno State is the favorite over Wyoming by 2.5 points, with -122 on the home team to cover the spread, compared to +100 for the road combatants. The Bulldogs’ moneyline sits at -142, meaning you’d need to risk $142 to win $100 on a straight-up victory.

Wyoming offers significantly more value on the moneyline at +120, returning $120 on a $100 wager if the Cowboys pull off the upset. When making your Wyoming vs Fresno State picks, consider the Cowboys’ recent performance against the spread.

The total is set at 40.5 points with -105 on the over and the slight expected total being under 40.5 points at -115. Our SBD model prediction has a 21.6-18.8 victory for Fresno State, meaning the Bulldogs would barely cover the spread in the College Football lines. The -142 price on the moneyline represents an implied win probability of 58.9%.

How to Watch Wyoming vs Fresno State

• Date: Saturday, November 16, 2024
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET / 7:30 p.m. PT
• TV Channel: FS1
• Streaming: FOX Sports App, fuboTV, YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV
• Location: Valley Children’s Stadium, Fresno, California
• Radio: ESPN 940 AM (Fresno), KOWB 1290 AM (Wyoming)

The Wyoming vs Fresno State odds and spread make this Mountain West showdown one to watch, with both teams needing a victory to keep their conference championship hopes alive.