South Florida vs Navy Preview, Prediction, Odds & H2H History – Week 12 AAC Battle

• USF is a 10-point road favorite over Navy in AAC action on Saturday afternoon
• Byrum Brown ranks second among all QBs nationally in total offense since Week 4
• See below for the South Florida vs Navy preview, plus my prediction and AAC picks for November 15

The American Athletic Conference title race comes down to this. No. 25 South Florida (7-2, 4-1 AAC) visits Navy (7-2, 5-1 AAC) in a Week 12 game that’ll decide who controls their championship destiny.

Both teams enter with one conference loss, making this essentially an elimination game. The Bulls bring college football’s most overlooked elite quarterback to Annapolis as double-digit road favorites in the latest college football odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.

South Florida vs Navy Preview

Byrum Brown is putting together a Heisman-caliber season that nobody’s talking about. The USF signal-caller has thrown for 2,203 yards and rushed for 705 more, ranking second among all quarterbacks in total offense since Week 4.

He’s forced 39 missed tackles over his last five games and grades out as the nation’s second-best QB behind only Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, according to PFF. Brown torched UTSA last week for 239 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 109 rushing yards on just nine carries.

Navy counters with Blake Horvath, who’s dealing with an upper-body injury that forced him to miss last week’s 49-10 loss at Notre Dame. Coach Brian Newberry says Horvath has improved daily and should play.

Horvath has rushed for 931 yards and 13 touchdowns this season, ranking second among all quarterbacks in rushing yards. The Midshipmen run on 73% of their plays, the third-highest rate nationally.

Key Statistical Matchup

Navy mixes in 11 different run concepts, from power (20%) to counter (16%) to the traditional triple option (8%). This diversity creates unique preparation challenges that most teams aren’t ready for.

USF vs Navy Prediction

The matchup that’ll decide this game is South Florida’s run defense against Navy’s ground attack. It’s a complete reversal from last year when Navy rushed for 321 yards in a 28-7 victory.

USF’s run defense has transformed dramatically since their brutal early-season schedule. They posted a 50.0 run defense grade through Week 3 on PFF, ranking fourth-worst nationally.

Since Week 4? They’ve jumped to a 91.2 grade, good for 11th-best in the country. They just held UTSA’s Robert Henry to 27 rushing yards (2.7 YPC) after he’d been averaging well over 100 YPG this season.

Navy’s defense presents the opposite trajectory. They’ve allowed at least 31 points in five straight games and rank outside the top 100 in PFF’s defensive grades. The Midshipmen gave up 502 total yards to Notre Dame and 518 to Temple.

The betting trends would agree with fading Navy here. The Midshipmen are just 2-7 ATS this season and 0-6 ATS in their last six games. Meanwhile, South Florida checks in at 7-2 ATS overall and 6-1 ATS after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

If Horvath was fully healthy, Navy might keep this close. But even at 100%, stopping this USF offense feels impossible for a defense that’s been shredded weekly. I predict the Bulls win going away and cover the 10-point spread in the process.

• Pick: South Florida -10 (-110 at Fanatics)

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South Florida vs Navy Odds

The Bulls opened as 8.5-point favorites, but sharp action pushed the line to 10. The total has dropped from 64.5 to 62.5 as bettors expect a lower-scoring affair with Navy’s methodical style.

The public is hammering USF on the moneyline in the college football public betting trends, putting 95% of handle on the Bulls to win outright. However, spread betting is a bit more balanced, with Navy receiving 37% of spread handle.

The line movement tells you everything about Horvath’s injury impact. Books clearly don’t trust Navy’s offense at less than full strength against a Bulls team averaging 42 points per game.

USF vs Navy Head-to-Head

The visiting team has won two straight in this rivalry, which bodes poorly for Navy on Saturday. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings, another trend pointing toward USF covering the double-digit spread.

Last year’s meeting saw the Navy dominate on the ground, gaining over 300 rushing yards in a 28-7 road victory. But that USF team featured a porous run defense that’s since been completely rebuilt. With Horvath banged up, the Midshipmen will likely struggle to diversify their attack enough to keep pace.