World Cup Picks & Predictions Today (June 25)

• USA look to sweep Group D against a Turkiye team that’s yet to score
• Paraguay and Australia battle for second place in Group D
• See the top World Cup computer picks for all six games on Thursday, June 25

The World Cup group stage continues with a six-game slate on Thursday, June 25. The last matchday for three groups, fans will be treated to three sets of simultaneous kickoffs.

The schedule starts with the final Group E games: Ecuador vs Germany, and Curacao vs Ivory Coast (4:00 PM ET). Group F is next on the docket: Tunisia vs Netherlands, and Japan vs Sweden (7:00 PM ET). Finally, Group D rounds out Thursday’s action: Turkiye vs USA, and Paraguay vs Australia (10:00 PM ET).

I ran all six matches through our proprietary A.I. prediction model to get the computer’s top pick for each game. The table below summarizes those picks and the best-available prices. Under the table, I have included the rationale for each bet so readers can assess the model’s logic.

Best World Cup Picks & Predictions Today (June 25)

The model is taking two modes favorites to win outright (Germany, Japan), one heavy favorite to cover 2.5 goals (Netherlands), another heavy favorite to go over 2.5 team goals (Ivory Coast), a draw in Paraguay vs Australia, and Turkiye to stay goalless for the tournament.

Heading into Wednesday’s six-game slate, the model is 28-20 (+5.16 units on 1-unit wagers).

ECU vs GER Computer Pick: Germany to Win (-115 at BetMGM)

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A.I. rationale: “The price is short, but the matchup still points toward Germany. They have been the tournament’s most dangerous attacking side through two matches, scoring nine goals with a +7 goal difference, and that 4.5-goal-per-match pace creates a major problem for an Ecuador team still looking for its first goal.

Ecuador have conceded only once, so this is not a pure fade of their defensive structure. The case is that Germany’s finishing ceiling is much higher, and because Kalshi’s Germany Yes contract at 54¢ is roughly a -117 equivalent, BetMGM’s -115 remains the best available way to play the outright win.”

CUR vs CDI Computer Pick: Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Goals (52¢ at Kalshi)

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Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Goals

52%

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A.I. rationale: “Ivory Coast are the clear better side, but the 84¢ outright win price does not leave enough payout for a best-bet recommendation. The stronger angle is their team total, where 52¢ on Ivory Coast over 2.5 goals gives the model a better risk-reward profile if their attacking edge shows up as expected.

This market also avoids the extra requirement attached to laying a 2.5-goal spread. Ivory Coast can score three and still cash in scorelines such as 3-1 or 4-2, which makes the team-total route more flexible against a Curacao side priced at only 6¢ to win.”

TUN vs NED Computer Pick: Netherlands -2.5 Goals (50¢ at Kalshi)

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Netherlands -2.5

50%

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A.I. rationale: “The Netherlands are priced as the biggest favorite on the slate, but 88¢ on the moneyline is too expensive to recommend as the best bet. The A.I. prefers turning that dominance into a margin play, with 50¢ on the Netherlands to win by more than 2.5 goals offering a much better payout.

Tunisia are only 4¢ to win and 9¢ to draw, which signals a market expectation that the Netherlands control territory, possession, and chances. If that control turns into the kind of finishing edge the model projects, the spread contract offers more value than simply paying a premium for the outright result.”

JPN vs SWE Computer Pick: Japan to Win (53¢ at Kalshi)

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Japan to Win

53%

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A.I. rationale: “Japan are not a runaway favorite, but the matchup and market both give them the cleaner win profile. At 53¢, the Kalshi Yes contract keeps the price close to even money while backing the side the model rates as more likely to take all three points.

The Japan -1.5 option pays more at 30¢, but that requires separation in a game with a 27¢ draw price and Sweden still live at 22¢ to win. The A.I. prefers the moneyline because it captures Japan’s edge without forcing a multi-goal result.”

TUR vs USA Computer Pick: Turkiye Under 0.5 Goals (33¢ at Kalshi)

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Turkiye Under 0.5 Goals

33%

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A.I. rationale: “The U.S. moneyline remains playable, but the Kalshi team-total market offers a better way to express the same matchup read. The No contract on Turkiye over 0.5 goals costs 33¢, meaning it wins if Turkiye fail to score and carries a much stronger payout than laying near even money on the USA.

Turkiye have been a statistical anomaly, holding a tournament-high 70.5 percent possession and attempting 61 total shots without scoring a goal. Arda Guler gives them creativity, but the finishing inefficiency is severe enough for the model to prefer the shutout angle as the single best bet in this game.”

PAR vs AUS Computer Pick: Draw (43¢ at Kalshi)

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Full-Time Draw

42%

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A.I. rationale: “The A.I. projects this as a low-event match with limited separation between the teams. Paraguay and Australia are both averaging just 1.0 goal per match, and neither profile suggests enough attacking control to justify backing either side on the moneyline.

Paraguay have averaged only 29.5 percent possession with 14 total shots, while Australia sit at 37 percent possession with 13 shots. With Paraguay’s tournament-high seven cards also likely to interrupt rhythm, Kalshi’s 43¢ Tie Yes price is the best available way to play the stalemate.”