Week 11 NFL Predictions: Computer Score Projections, Expert Picks & Upset Analysis

Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season continues with a full slate on Sunday after the Patriots demolished the Jets 27-14 on Thursday Night Football. My Week 11 NFL upset picks target the Panthers and Seahawks, while my best bet can be found in the Lions-Eagles Sunday Night Football showdown.

I went 1-2 on my NFL picks last weekend, with my Patriots moneyline bet cashing as New England upset Tampa Bay. My Under 48.5 best bet also looked good until Baker Mayfield threw a late TD, his third of the game, to send this one just over the posted total. However, my Steelers upset pick fell flat as they lost 25-10 against the Chargers.

Weather is once again a key storyline this weekend as temps get colder in mid-November. Buffalo is expecting 35 mph wind gusts when Tampa Bay visits, while Cleveland’s got 25 mph sustained winds off the lake for Ravens-Browns. We’ll dig into how these weather conditions affect totals, but spoiler alert: bet the Unders.

Week 11 NFL Predictions

The computer and I don’t align on our upset picks this week, which is a first. Typically, there is at least one common denominator. However, the computer’s projected 21.7 – 21.2 score for Seahawks-Rams has me optimistic about Seattle being the right side, even if the model thinks LA squeezes out the W.

Regarding my Panthers upset pick, the model is picking a 15.7 – 13.1 score in favor of the Falcons. This is the type of narrow margin I like to see, though, as it helps reinforce that I’m not out to lunch with these picks. In terms of upsets the model does predict to happen, it projects Detroit and Chicago to win as underdogs this weekend.

Of note, the computer predicts Tennessee will score just 2.3 points against Houston’s elite defense in Week 11. No, that’s not a typo. That’s how disastrous things have become in Tennessee, despite the Titans having a talented first overall pick, Cam Ward, under center. Houston’s projected 24.6-point victory makes this game the computer’s largest expected blowout of the week.

NFL Best Bet for Week 11

Lions-Eagles Under 46.5 (-110)

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • November 16, 2025 at 7:25am

Pick

Odds

Under +47

Over/Under

NFL • Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles

-110 on BetMGM

SCHEDULED • 11/17/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1763277941801-481c-798

My best NFL Week 11 bet can be found in the Sunday Night Football odds, where the public often loves to pound the Over. However, both offenses are struggling badly right now, making the Under 47 at BetMGM my favorite play on the board.

Philadelphia managed one touchdown against Green Bay last week. They reached the red zone once in the entire game. Saquon Barkley is averaging 3.9 yards per carry, which is down from 6.0 last year. The offensive line’s been together for exactly one game all season, and that’s not a winning formula.

Detroit, meanwhile, is missing tight end Sam LaPorta, who was just placed on IR. Both starting tackles, Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker, are questionable after neither practiced on Friday. Those are the types of potential absences that disrupt cohesion along the line of scrimmage.

Penei Sewell L knee/ankle injury video
-No good vid but can see defender crash in from lateral side and roll him up
-Suspect mild MCL & possible medial or high ankle sprain
-Medial knee was taped up rest of game pic.twitter.com/41SwrnaT3o

— Jimmy Liao MD | Detroit Lions Morning Rounds (@JimmyLiaoMD) November 12, 2025

The Eagles rank 25th in passing offense and 21st in rushing. Multiple offensive players are frustrated with Jalen Hurts’ conservative approach, with A.J. Brown calling the situation a “sh*t show on stream.” When your best receiver says that publicly, you’ve got some issues.

The Eagles score 81% of the time when they get to the red zone, and the Lions score 68.4% of the time. But that doesn’t matter much if they don’t get there in the first place. Last week, Philadelphia went to the red zone once. LaPorta being out means the Lions lose their best red zone target.

The total started at 49.5 and has already gone down to 46.5 at most books. That’s a full three points of movement driven by big bets. Take this Under now before the Lions vs. Eagles line goes down more.

NFL Week 11 Upset Picks

Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) over Los Angeles Rams

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • November 16, 2025 at 7:17am

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

152 on FanDuel

SCHEDULED • 11/16/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1763277466114-481c-288

My first NFL upset pick for Week 11 takes advantage of one of the league’s hottest teams being mispriced in the NFL odds. The Seahawks, who are 11-1 on the road under Mike Macdonald, are catching +3.5 points in LA. Read that record again: 11-1. That speaks to how well Macdonald prepares his team for hostile environments.

It all starts for Seattle with Sam Darnold, who’s playing the best football of his career. He’s completing 74.1% of his passes with 17 touchdowns, and his 9.9 yards per attempt leads the league. Last two games? Darnold completed 25 of 26 first-half passes for 449 yards and five touchdowns. Seattle led 31-7 and 38-7 at halftime.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the NFL with 1,041 receiving yards, and he’s on pace for Calvin Johnson’s single-season record. The Rams’ secondary ranks 19th against the pass, which is the major matchup edge for Seattle to exploit.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba joined Antonio Brown from 2014 and Michael Irvin from 1995 as the only players in NFL history with at least 75 receiving yards in each of their first nine games of a season. pic.twitter.com/TktG5WwUMP

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 10, 2025

Seattle barely blitzes (18.6% rate) yet generates the second-best pressure rate at 40.4%. They’ve recorded 32 sacks with 15 different players contributing. Matthew Stafford doesn’t move well, and that’s going to be a problem against this pass rush.

The Seahawks are -4 in turnover differential while the Rams are +7. But regression happens eventually. If Seattle cuts down on turnovers just slightly, I believe they’re the better team from the line of scrimmage.

This opened Rams -3.5. The NFL public betting percentages show 59% of moneyline handle backing Seattle, with only 38% of tickets. Sharp money clearly loves the Seahawks in Week 11, and so do I.

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) over Atlanta Falcons

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • November 16, 2025 at 7:15am

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

180 on DraftKings

SCHEDULED • 11/16/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1763277346677-481c-803

We continue our Week 11 NFL upsets picks with a matchup that proved completely one-sided nearly two months ago. Carolina destroyed Atlanta 30-0 in Week 3, with Michael Penix throwing multiple picks against this Panthers defense. How much has really changed for these teams since then?

Atlanta is converting just 10.3% of third downs over their last three games, including going 0-for-8 last week. Penix Jr. completed 42.9% of his passes against Indianapolis. The Panthers play zone coverage 84.8% of the time, the highest in the league, and Penix can’t seem to solve zone.

But the main reason I love Carolina is because Rico Dowdle has become elite. He’s third in the NFL with 788 rushing yards, averaging 5.3 per carry. Since Week 5, he’s at 117.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, Atlanta has allowed 136 rushing yards per game since Week 3. The Colts just ran for 323 against them.

Jonathan Taylor was UNSTOPPABLE vs. Falcons 🤯

32 carries
244 rushing yards
3 TDs pic.twitter.com/kIn7H84kaM

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) November 9, 2025

Both Atlanta guards are hurt. Matthew Bergeron is out, and Chris Lindstrom is questionable. Falcons’ Star receiver Drake London, meanwhile, is battling illness and back issues. The offensive line can’t protect Penix when healthy, and now they’re down multiple starters.

The Falcons have lost four straight, and they are 1-4 ATS as favorites. Carolina is 6-4 ATS and 3-2 straight up on the road. Getting 3.5 points with a team that already won by 30? I not only love Carolina against the spread today, but I think there’s solid value betting them to pull the outright upset.

Most Impactful NFL Injuries for Week 11

Commanders at Dolphins

• Jayden Daniels, QB (Commanders): OUT – Elbow
• Terry McLaurin, WR (Commanders): OUT – Quadricep
• Bradley Chubb, LB (Dolphins): QUESTIONABLE – Foot

Marcus Mariota starts again. Without McLaurin, Washington’s passing game lacks any real threat.

Packers at Giants

• Jaxson Dart, QB (Giants): OUT – Concussion
• Darius Slayton, WR (Giants): OUT – Hamstring
• Kayvon Thibodeaux, LB (Giants): OUT – Shoulder

Jameis Winston starts for New York. The pass rush loses Thibodeaux, their best player.

Texans at Titans

• C.J. Stroud, QB (Texans): OUT – Concussion
• Calvin Ridley, WR (Titans): QUESTIONABLE – Hamstring
• Jeffery Simmons, DT (Titans): QUESTIONABLE – Hamstring

Davis Mills starts again for Houston. Tennessee hopes both Ridley and Simmons return after the bye.

Bengals at Steelers

• Joe Burrow, QB (Bengals): OUT – Toe
• Trey Hendrickson, DE (Bengals): OUT – Hip/Pelvis
• Darius Slay, CB (Steelers): OUT – Concussion
• Alex Highsmith, LB (Steelers): OUT – Pectoral

Joe Flacco continues for Cincinnati. Both defenses lose key pass rushers.

Panthers at Falcons

• Matthew Bergeron, G (Falcons): OUT – Ankle
• Leonard Floyd, LB (Falcons): OUT – Hamstring
• Drake London, WR (Falcons): QUESTIONABLE – Illness/Back
• Chris Lindstrom, G (Falcons): QUESTIONABLE – Foot

Atlanta’s offensive line is falling apart. London’s status remains uncertain after limited practice.

Buccaneers at Bills

• Bucky Irving, RB (Buccaneers): OUT – Foot/Shoulder
• Chris Godwin, WR (Buccaneers): OUT – Fibula
• Haason Reddick, LB (Buccaneers): OUT – Ankle/Knee
• Dalton Kincaid, TE (Bills): OUT – Hamstring

Tampa’s skill position group remains decimated. Buffalo loses its top tight end.

49ers at Cardinals

• Marvin Harrison Jr., WR (Cardinals): OUT – Appendicitis surgery
• Baron Browning, LB (Cardinals): OUT – Concussion
• Bam Knight, RB (Cardinals): QUESTIONABLE – Ankle

Harrison had surgery on Monday. Brock Purdy returns for San Francisco after missing most of the season.

Chargers at Jaguars

• J.K. Dobbins, RB (Chargers): OUT – Foot (season-ending surgery)
• Brian Thomas Jr., WR (Jaguars): QUESTIONABLE – Ankle
• Anton Harrison, T (Jaguars): OUT – Knee/Ankle

Dobbins needs season-ending surgery. RJ Harvey takes over. Thomas practiced limited all week.

Seahawks at Rams

• Jalen Sundell, C (Seahawks): OUT – Knee
• Davante Adams, WR (Rams): QUESTIONABLE – Oblique (expected to play)

Both teams are relatively healthy. Adams should play despite the questionable tag.

Chiefs at Broncos

• Isaiah Pacheco, RB (Chiefs): OUT – Knee
• Patrick Surtain II, CB (Broncos): OUT – Pectoral

Denver loses the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.

Lions at Eagles (SNF)

• Sam LaPorta, TE (Lions): OUT – Back (IR)
• Terrion Arnold, CB (Lions): OUT – Concussion
• Kerby Joseph, S (Lions): OUT – Knee
• Taylor Decker, T (Lions): QUESTIONABLE – Shoulder
• Penei Sewell, T (Lions): QUESTIONABLE – Ankle

Detroit’s injury list is brutal. Both tackles didn’t practice Friday. The secondary is missing key starters.

Weather Impacting Week 11 NFL Games

Weather’s an even bigger factor than usual in Week 11. Multiple games face serious wind conditions that will drastically affect scoring.

Buccaneers at Bills: Wind gusts up to 35 mph with 20 mph sustained. Possible rain/snow mix with temperatures in the high 30s. Both passing games will struggle.

Ravens at Browns: Worst conditions of the week. Sustained 25 mph winds off Lake Erie with 35 mph gusts. Low 40s. This will be ugly.

Bengals at Steelers: Sustained winds 15-20 mph, gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain. It could turn the expected shootout into a defensive battle.

Packers at Giants: Winds 15-20 mph sustained. MetLife’s swirling winds make kicking adventures.

Lions at Eagles: 43 degrees with 17 mph winds. Just enough to affect deep passes and field goals.

Check our NFL odds page as weather forecasts change throughout the week.