Early NFL Props to Target for Week 12 – Jahmyr Gibbs, Drake Maye & More

• Week 12 features exploitable matchups with defenses getting gashed at key positions
• Jahmyr Gibbs, Drake Maye, and Puka Nacua headline my top NFL player props for Week 12
• Check out my early Week 12 NFL player prop breakdowns, targeting the softest matchups heading into Thanksgiving week

Week 12 brings a fresh slate with some terrible defensive matchups we can attack. The schedule is loaded with vulnerable secondaries and run defenses that have been bleeding yards all season.

I’ve locked in on three NFL player props that should cash based on significant matchup edges. These picks target defenses that can’t get stops

NFL Week 12 Player Props to Target

Projected odds as of November 18th, 2025. Sign up at our top recommended NFL betting apps to pounce on these props when they’re released.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards

The Giants run defense is ranked 29th in the league. They’re allowing 5.74 yards per carry and have given up 1,285 rushing yards with 10 touchdowns. New York has been getting destroyed on the ground every single week.

Gibbs managed just 39 yards on 12 carries against Philadelphia last week, but saved his fantasy night with 107 receiving yards. The Eagles specifically schemed to stop Detroit’s ground game, and the Lions got away from their identity. This week should be completely different.

Detroit is a massive 10.5-point favorite at home, which means they’ll establish the run early and lean on it all game. The Lions rank as the 10th most run-oriented offense with a 41.9 percent run rate. That jumps even higher when they’re playing with big leads.

Gibbs has 732 rushing yards on 140 carries this season, averaging 5.2 yards per pop with eight touchdowns. He’s been incredibly efficient when given space, and this Giants defense can’t fill gaps. The projections have Gibbs at 14.7 carries in this matchup.

New York has allowed four different running backs to rush for over 100 yards this year. The Giants rank 32nd in adjusted yards per carry allowed. Gibbs should become the fifth back to crack triple digits, especially with how motivated Detroit will be after the embarrassment they suffered on Sunday Night Football.

• Early Bet: Jahmyr Gibbs over 78.5 rushing yards

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NFL Player Prop Pick: Drake Maye Passing Yards

Maye leads the entire NFL with 2,836 passing yards through 11 games, holding a 145-yard cushion over Justin Herbert. He just carved up the Jets for 281 yards on Thursday night, completing 25 of 34 passes.

The Bengals are tied for 30th in pass defense, allowing 261.7 passing yards per game and giving up a ridiculous 33.4 points per contest. Cincinnati has ceded more than 30 points six times already, including each of the last three games.

New England is 9-2 and riding an eight-game winning streak — the hottest team in football right now. Maye has been the catalyst, throwing 20 touchdowns against just five interceptions with a 113.2 passer rating that leads the league.

He’s averaging 257.8 passing yards over his last five games and hasn’t dipped below 222 yards in any start since Week 5. Cincinnati’s pass rush is nonexistent without Trey Hendrickson, who’s doubtful with hip and pelvis injuries. The Bengals allow 7.91 yards per attempt, which is extraordinarily high.

The total for this game sits at 50.5, the highest on the entire Week 12 slate. Vegas expects a shootout. New England ranks seventh in scoring and ninth in total offense, posting at least 23 points in eight consecutive games.

Maye started his last game by completing his first 11 passes. With weapons like TreVeyon Henderson and Kayshon Boutte stretching the field, he should clear 272.5 yards easily. The Bengals have given up 22 passing touchdowns while recording just eight interceptions all season.

• Early Bet: Drake Maye over 272.5 passing yards

NFL Player Prop Pick: Puka Nacua Receiving Yards

Nacua just caught seven balls for 75 yards against Seattle, and he’s been money all season long. He ranks third in the NFL with 73 receptions and 850 receiving yards while adding four touchdowns in nine games. The kid refuses to step out of bounds and fights for every yard after the catch.

Now he gets Tampa Bay on Sunday Night Football. The Buccaneers rank 19th against wide receivers, allowing 21.4 fantasy points per game to the position. Tampa’s pass defense ranks 18th overall, giving up 238.1 yards through the air per game.

The projections have Nacua at 10.9 targets, which places him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers. With a 29.6 percent target rate this year, he’s one of the most heavily targeted receivers in football. Stafford looks for him constantly, especially on third downs.

Stafford has been ridiculous lately, throwing 22 touchdowns with zero interceptions over his last seven starts. That connection with Nacua is humming. The Rams are riding a five-game winning streak after beating Seattle 21-19, and LA now sits at 8-2 in first place in the NFC West.

Nacua has hit at least 85 scrimmage yards in seven of nine appearances this season. Tampa’s secondary is dealing with injuries, and they’re without Mike Evans. Both offenses can score in this one, and the Rams will need to keep pace with Baker Mayfield.

Nacua told The Pat McAfee Show that he never steps out of bounds because that’s “soft,” so you know he’s fighting for extra yards on every catch. The projected 85-yard line feels too low for a receiver averaging 94.4 yards per game.

• Early Bet: Puka Nacua over 85 receiving yards

Brady’s Early NFL Props Record: 14-19

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