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Skubal Next Team Odds – Tigers Favored to Hang onto AL Cy Young Winner
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Two-time reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal is favored to start the 2026 season with the Tigers
- Detroit has a 65% chance to keep Skubal per Kalshi, which works out to a -185 favorite
- Keep reading for betting analysis and advice for Skubal’s next team
The Tarik Skubal story is an incredible one. This is a guy who went from an unknown 9th round pick to a multiple Cy Young Award winner in what seems like the blink of an eye. Baseball’s best pitcher is due to receive an astronomical raise following the 2026 season, so the question now becomes who’s going to be signing the cheque?
Skubal is still under contract with the Detroit Tigers for one more season, and prediction markets are expecting him to remain in Detroit. Kalshi gives the Tigers a 65% chance of retaining Skubal’s services, but the baseball world is buzzing with trade rumors surrounding Detroit’s ace.
Skubal Next Team Odds
In traditional sports betting terms, Kalshi makes the Tigers a -185 favorite to keep Skubal. The Mets (+566) and Phillies (+1328) have the second and third shortest odds to acquire his services, with New York being able to offer the superior trade package.
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Why Skubal Isn’t Likely to Leave
The Mets have plenty of young talent to offer including pitchers Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong, as well as outfielder Carson Benge. Detroit is looking to win now, so moving on from Skubal would require Major League ready talent in return. McLean and Tong are just that, while Benge would fit nicely in an outfield that already includes Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene.
The problem is, this trade doesn’t make them better now or next year. Perhaps five years down the line it would be a different story, but I’m no fortune teller and neither is Tigers GM Chris Ilitch. What complicates the matter is that Skubal intends to test free agency in 2026, and teams don’t want to mortgage their future without a guarantee he’ll stick around for the long haul.
What I do know, as does the rest of the baseball world, is that Skubal is arguably the most important player in the American League not named Aaron Judge.
Skubal was the unanimous winner in the Cy Young odds in 2024, capturing the AL’s Triple Crown. He proved that season was no fluke in 2025, ramping up his velocity, reducing his walk rate, and bumping up his strikeout numbers en route to a second straight Cy Young Award.
Tarik Skubal 2024 vs 2025 Stats
The big lefty led all AL pitchers in WAR and ERA, finishing with a 13-6 record. Detroit went 21-10 in games he started, and he carried his dominance over to the postseason. Skubal threw 7.2 innings of one-run ball in the AL Wild Card Round, and allowed only 3 runs in 13 innings during the ALDS. He posted a 36-to-4 strikeout-to-walk rate in the playoffs, and a minuscule 0.68 WHIP.
That kind of talent doesn’t grow on trees, and you’d be crazy to let it walk out the door if you can afford it. And that’s the thing, the Tigers can afford it. Detroit had a $157,542,361 payroll this past season, which is right around league average. This is not a small market team like Pirates or Rays. If you want to contend you have to spend, and the Tigers are on the record saying they’re willing to open up their wallets.
Detroit should be extra motivated to sign Skubal next offseason due to the division they play in. The AL Central is arguably the weakest division in baseball, and a roster headlined by Skubal is an instant contender there and in the World Series odds. He’s led them to the postseason in back-to-back years, and more playoff appearances equals more money for the Detroit organization.
The Tigers have built up a lot of goodwill with their recent success, and I don’t expect them to throw it all away by trading Skubal right now. For all the rumors about a possible Skubal trade, there’s been no significant talks.
Let’s not forget, Detroit was 10 outs away from an ALCS appearance last year. They were the AL’s best team for the bulk of the regular season before their September slump, and all the key pieces from last year’s squad are returning for 2026. At the very least, Skubal will start the season in Detroit. If things go south then maybe they’ll consider moving him at the deadline, but for the sake of this market bet on him starting 2026 with the Tigers.
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Chris Amberley
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
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