Missouri vs Oklahoma Prediction, Spread & How to Watch – Week 13 SEC Action

• Mizzou’s Ahmad Hardy leads the country in rushing ahead of this Missouri vs Oklahoma matchup
• Oklahoma just needs to win out to make the CFP in this SEC showdown
• Continue reading for my Missouri vs Oklahoma prediction, pick, and updated Missouri vs Oklahoma spread

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The No. 22 Missouri Tigers (7-3, 3-3 in the SEC) head to Norman for the first time since 2011 to face the No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (8-2, 4-2 in the SEC) in a game with massive CFP implications. Memorial Stadium will play host to this century-old rivalry on Saturday afternoon.

Viewers can find Missouri vs Oklahoma on ABC for a noon ET kickoff.

Missouri sports betting launches December 1, and fans can pre-register now at Missouri sports betting apps to be ready to place their wagers on SEC matchups when betting goes live.

I have finalized my Missouri vs Oklahoma prediction and pick for this crucial conference battle. Let’s dive into the analysis and the Missouri vs Oklahoma spread as the Sooners look to solidify their place in the College Football Playoff.

Missouri vs Oklahoma Prediction

• Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Missouri 21

This Missouri vs Oklahoma prediction sees a competitive battle in Norman, with the Sooners’ playoff aspirations giving them the edge in a close contest.

While both defenses have been solid, Ahmad Hardy’s explosive rushing ability and Oklahoma’s recent defensive struggles should push this SEC showdown over the 42.5 total.

Missouri Tigers Analysis

Missouri started 5-0 and climbed as high as No. 14 in the AP Poll before losing three games to top-10 teams in Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M.

Missouri has secured their third straight winning season and their fifth straight bowl game. Had the Tigers won any of their ranked matchups, they would likely be a CFP team.

In a crazy turn of events, Beau Pribula is in line to start Saturday. The Penn State transfer dislocated his ankle on Oct. 25 and missed the last two games. While he is not an elite quarterback, he is a perfectly capable signal-caller. His return is much needed to keep Missouri as a two-dimensional threat.

After transferring from UL Monroe, Ahmad Hardy has thrown his hat into the ring as the best running back in college football. He leads the country with 1,346 rushing yards on an SEC-best 6.8 yards per rush. Last week, he ran for a preposterous 300 yards and three touchdowns.

AHMAD HARDY 72 YARD HOUSE CALL‼️ pic.twitter.com/9dTwHphyjY

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) November 16, 2025

Kevin Coleman Jr. has had a solid season as the top receiving option, with 56 catches for 600 yards, leading the Tigers in both categories. In terms of receiving touchdowns, tight end Brett Norfleet leads the way with five of Missouri’s 15 total.

Long-time NFL fans will recognize the name “Trotter” on the Missouri defense—linebacker Josiah Trotter, the son of All-Pro linebacker Jeremiah Trotter (and brother of Jeremiah Trotter Jr.). The sophomore leads the Tigers in solo tackles and total tackles. He has also added 9.5 tackles for loss, a sack, and a pass deflection.

Oklahoma Sooners Analysis

With back-to-back wins over top-15 teams, Oklahoma controls its destiny for making the CFP. The Sooners are 4-1 against ranked teams this season, only losing to No. 8 Ole Miss. If Oklahoma wins versus Missouri and LSU, they will likely host a playoff game.

An early-season Heisman contender, John Mateer has been quite average since returning from his hand injury. In the five games since, he has four total touchdowns and four interceptions, completing just over 60% of his passes. His performance has been workmanlike as opposed to elite.

I get John Mateer still has a lot to work on to reach that truly elite level as a quarterback

But these types of TD runs are just electric, such a fun player when he has it rolling#Sooners pic.twitter.com/OfqNUlKsu0

— Josh Callaway (@JoshMCallaway) November 16, 2025

Oklahoma’s rushing attack has been an enigma. As soon as one back takes the lead for an outing—either Tory Blaylock or Xavier Robinson—he struggles the next week. Robinson had back-to-back 100-yard games before scuffling to just 34 yards last week. It’s worth noting that Mateer leads the Sooners with seven rushing touchdowns.

Isaiah Sategna is the Sooner pass-catcher to know. He leads the team with 53 catches, 718 yards, and five touchdowns. If the Sooners make a sufficient playoff run, he should be the first Sooner to surpass 1,000 receiving yards since Marvin Mims in 2022.

R Mason Thomas did not play last week, but he is the superstar of the Oklahoma defense. He has 9.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks, including arguably the defensive play of the season with a 71-yard scoop-and-score.

SCOOP. STIFF ARM. SCORE.@thomss_r | 📺 ABC pic.twitter.com/GK22uaYanI

— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) November 2, 2025

Missouri vs Oklahoma Pick

• Mizzou vs OU Pick: Over 42.5

Here’s why I’m backing Over 42.5 in my Missouri vs Oklahoma pick for this SEC showdown:

• Overs are a healthy 6-3-1 in Missouri games this season—including each of the last two weeks. While the under is 8-2 in Oklahoma games, the over has hit in two of the last three Sooner contests.
• This is Ahmad Hardy’s world; we’re just living in it. He is breaking 7.1 tackles per game. Oklahoma has a sturdy run defense, but they’ve missed 5.1 tackles per game in run defense, opening the door for a Hardy breakaway. He has 36 runs of at least 10 yards this season with a 30-yard run in eight different games.
• After allowing 20 points just once through seven games, the Sooners have allowed 21 or more points in three straight games. This defensive regression could lead to a higher-scoring affair than the Missouri vs Oklahoma odds suggest.

Missouri vs Oklahoma Odds

The sportsbooks have Oklahoma as solid home favorites in the Missouri vs Oklahoma odds for this SEC battle. The total is set between 42.5 and 43 points. Over bettors can get over 42.5 at BetRivers for -109 odds, while under bettors can get under 43 on Fanatics for -110 odds.

Oklahoma bettors can get the Sooners at -6 on the spread at Fanatics (-115 odds) or -215 on the moneyline at FanDuel. Missouri bettors can get the Tigers at +6.5 on the spread at Underdog (-109 odds) or +212 on the moneyline, also at Underdog.

With Missouri sports betting apps launching on December 1, Tigers fans can pre-register now to be ready to place their wagers when betting goes live.

Missouri vs Oklahoma: Last Five Matchups

Oklahoma holds the lifetime series edge 67-25-5. The rivalry dates back to 1902, with Oklahoma largely dominating since World War II.

Last season, the Tigers and Sooners squared off for the first time as SEC competitors. Missouri won a back-and-forth affair that featured 34 fourth-quarter points and two scoop-and-scores.

Missouri’s Drew Pyne threw for 143 yards and three touchdowns, while Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold didn’t throw for a touchdown but did catch one. This recent history of offensive explosions supports my Missouri vs Oklahoma prediction for another competitive contest.