Packers vs Lions Player Props to Target on Thanksgiving
By Chris Amberley in NFL News
Published:
- The Green Bay Packers face the Detroit Lions to kickoff the Thanksgiving Day slate
- Green Bay’s defense ranks 2nd in DVOA at home, but 22nd on the road
- Keep reading for my favorite Packers vs Lions player props to target on Thanksgiving
It’s a football feast on Thanksgiving Day starting with the Packers (7-3-1, 3-1-1 away) taking on the Lions (7-4, 4-1 home). These three games are going to be some of the most watched and bet on in NFL history, and sportsbooks have expanded their player props menu to mark the occasion.
Not only can you bet on traditional over/unders for Thursday’s slate, but you can also wager on which positional player will record the most catches, receiving yards, carries and rushing yards for the entire day.
The first table below lists the main Packers vs Lions player props available in the TNF odds, plus my favorite O/U to target. The second table features the anytime touchdown props.
GB Packers vs DET Lions Player Props
My Lions vs Packers player props card starts with one of the alternate markets, as I’m betting on Amon-Ra St. Brown to record the most receiving yards on Thanksgiving. I’m also wagering on over 225.5 passing yards for Jordan Love, and an anytime TD for David Montgomery.
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Packers vs Lions Player Prop Bet #1: Amon-Ra St. Brown Most Receiving Yards on Thanksgiving
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Most Receiving Yards on Thanksgiving (+550 at DraftKings)
I think St. Brown is a major value in the most receiving yards market today. Most bettors will flock to Ja’Marr Chase or one of the Cowboys receivers instead, but St. Brown’s ceiling is sky-high with Sam LaPorta out of the lineup.
In two games without LaPorta, St. Brown has seen 25 targets. He ranks top-four among all receivers in receptions, receiving yards, YAC and total EPA, and can exploit the Green Bay defense over the middle. The Packers struggle to defend that area of the field, and that’s where St. Brown is at his best.
Amon-Ra St. Brown 2025 Stats
Speaking of the Packers defense, they have some alarming home and away splits. Green Bay ranks second at home in defense DVOA, but 22nd on the road. Yes, their pass rush is what makes them a Super Bowl 60 odds contender, but Goff can negate that by spamming short and intermediate crossers to his favorite target.
Looking for more Packers vs Lions bets to tail? Check out:
- Sascha Paruk’s Packers vs Lions Picks & Predictions
- John Hyslop’s Packers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay
Packers vs Lions Player Prop Bet #2: Jordan Love Over 225.5 Passing Yards
All signs point to a big Jordan Love game on Thanskgiving. He’s an underdog, his top running back Josh Jacobs is banged up, and the Detroit secondary is in shambles.
The Lions are down multiple defensive backs for this game, and just surrendered 366 passing yards four days ago to Jameis Winston. Entering the week, Detroit has allowed the 10th most production to enemy quarterbacks, while only Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes are more efficient at the QB position than Love.
In addition to ranking third in total EPA, Love is also eighth in success rate and ninth in completion percentage among qualified quarterbacks. His top-two tackles both rank top-15 in pass block win rate, while the Lions have allowed the ninth most production to opposing wideouts.
Packers vs Lions Anytime Touchdown Odds
Shifting over to the Packers vs Lions anytime touchdown props, where David Montgomery is my favorite target when taking price into consideration.
Packers vs Lions Player Prop Bet #3: David Montgomery Over 0.5 Rushing TDs
Montgomery has taken a back seat to Jahmyr Gibbs this season, but the matchup versus Green Bay calls for more inside runs. That’s where the Packers are most vulnerable on the ground, as opposed to the outside which they defend very well.
Montgomery is a better runner in between the tackles than Gibbs, and is the preferred option in short yardage, and goal line situations. He’s got five career TD versus Green Bay, and I like his chances of punching in another on Thanksgiving.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.