Temple vs North Texas Predictions, Picks, Line & How to Watch Black Friday CFB

• North Texas is a 20.5-point favorite over Temple in Friday’s Black Friday showdown
• The Mean Green are 10-1 and hunting for an AAC Championship berth while Temple needs a win for bowl eligibility
• See below for my Temple vs North Texas prediction, pick and betting trends for Friday, Nov 28

Temple travels to Denton for a Black Friday matchup against North Texas, with the Mean Green looking to strengthen their CFP bracket case as a Group of Five contender.

North Texas (10-1) sits in the AAC Championship hunt with style points mattering. The Owls (5-6) need their sixth win to end a six-year bowl drought after a 37-13 loss to Tulane. Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. ET from DATCU Stadium on ESPN.

North Texas faces a major distraction with head coach Eric Morris accepting the Oklahoma State job earlier this week. Morris will coach Friday’s game, but the Mean Green must handle the emotions of this moment in a game with conference title and CFP implications.

Temple vs North Texas Predictions

• Winner Prediction: North Texas
• Spread Prediction: Temple +20.5
• Total Prediction: Under 65.5

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

Bet $1 & Double Your Winnings On Your First 20 Wagers!

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD20X

CODE: SBD20X

SIGNUP PROMO

DOUBLE YOUR
WINNINGS

ON YOUR FIRST 20 WAGERS!

CLAIM OFFER

My Temple vs North Texas prediction starts with a key question: can North Texas actually cover three touchdowns with everything going on around this program right now?

Adding to the chaos, UNT has dealt with defensive injuries late in the season. Linebacker Shane Whitter is out for the year, safety Quinton Hammonds missed last week, and the defensive line is banged up.

North Texas is just 1-4 ATS when laying more than 20 points since 2023. They win these games, but covering massive spreads is different than just winning comfortably.

The Mean Green’s offense leads the nation in total yards at 503.0 per game and ranks third in scoring at 46.27 points. QB Drew Mestemaker has been excellent, completing 69.7% of his passes for 3,459 yards and 26 touchdowns. In his last game against Rice, he went for 469 yards on 82.6% completion.

Temple vs North Texas Key Stats

Temple’s defense has been picked apart by quality offenses all season – they gave up 45 points to East Carolina, 45 to Georgia Tech, 42 to Oklahoma, and 37 to Tulane last week. North Texas will move the ball and score points. That’s not in question.

But what’s intriguing is Temple’s offense has shown flashes of explosiveness that could keep this closer than expected. QB Evan Simon threw six touchdown passes against UMass and five more in a win at Tulsa. When he gets rolling, the Owls can put up points. North Texas’s banged-up defense needs to keep Temple from gaining momentum early.

The question is whether Temple can slow the game down enough to stay within 21 points. The Owls rank 98th in passing yards (202.4 per game) and 97th in total yards (347.9). This isn’t an offense built to trade scores. Simon threw for just 80 yards against East Carolina and 157 against Army in recent outings.

Temple’s path to covering is grinding out first downs with its ground game. They average 145.5 rushing yards per game with 32.73 attempts, looking to eat clock and limit possessions.

The Owls are 7-4 ATS this season because they keep games close – they lost by one point to both Army (14-13) and Navy (32-31) earlier this year. They find ways to hang around even when clearly outmatched.

North Texas has been dominant early, averaging 12.27 points in the first quarter (3rd nationally) and 12.55 in the second quarter (7th). They’ll build a lead. But I’m not confident they can push it to three touchdowns against a Temple team that’s covered as an underdog repeatedly this year.

Temple vs North Texas Picks

• Temple +20.5 (-108 at ESPN Bet)
• Under 65.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

I’m taking Temple with the points for my Temple vs North Texas prediction. Yes, North Texas should win this game – probably comfortably. But winning by 21+ points is a different task than just winning.

Temple has everything to play for: bowl eligibility after a six-year drought and a chance to end the season on a high note. They’ve shown they can score when things click – six touchdowns against UMass, five at Tulsa. The Owls won’t just roll over.

The Mean Green want style points for their playoff résumé, and they’ve shown they’ll keep scoring in blowouts. They scored 14 fourth-quarter points last week against Rice in a game that was already over, and added a late touchdown against UAB two weeks earlier in another blowout.

However, with Morris leaving for OK State and key defenders sidelined, the focus may not be there to bury Temple. North Texas can’t let the Owls get on a roll and build confidence, but that’s easier said than done in an emotional spot like this.

Temple’s game plan is built for exactly this spot. Run the ball with their solid ground attack, control the clock, and keep the score manageable.

The public is hammering North Texas with 78% of spread bets on the Mean Green. When the public loves a big favorite like this, there’s often value on the other side. Temple staying within three touchdowns offers contrarian value here.

I’m also playing the under for my Temple vs North Texas picks. The total of 65.5 is too high given Temple’s offensive limitations. The Owls failed to score more than 14 points in three of their last four games, putting up just 13 against Tulane, 14 against East Carolina, and 13 against Army.

North Texas will get theirs, but Temple’s offense is so limited that hitting 66 combined points requires the Mean Green to score 50+. That’s asking a lot, even against a bad defense.

The under has cashed in a ridiculous eight games for UNT, but now it’s inflated against a weak offensive opponent. Some books are adjusting, dropping the total down to 64.5. We will take the 65.5 while we can.

Temple vs North Texas Betting Line

The Temple vs North Texas odds have North Texas as a massive 20.5-point favorite at home. The moneyline price of -1429 means you’d need to bet $1,429 to win $100, while Temple’s +811 pays $811 on a $100 bet.

A $100 bet on North Texas returns just $7.00 in profit. The same wager on Temple pays out $811 if the Owls pull the upset.

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

Bet $1 & Double Your Winnings On Your First 20 Wagers!

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD20X

CODE: SBD20X

SIGNUP PROMO

DOUBLE YOUR
WINNINGS

ON YOUR FIRST 20 WAGERS!

CLAIM OFFER

Odds as of November 27th at consensus sportsbooks. Bet on college football with the best sportsbook promos.

How to Watch Temple vs North Texas

Temple vs North Texas kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Friday, November 28, 2025, from DATCU Stadium in Denton, Texas. ESPN has the broadcast.

North Texas looks to cap off their regular season at home with a statement win, while Temple fights for bowl eligibility against one of the nation’s top offenses.