Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles Picks, Predictions, Odds & Betting Splits

• The division-leading Bears and Eagles enter Black Friday with identical 8-3 record
• The winner will move half a game back of the Rams for top seed in the NFC
• See my Bears vs Eagles picks and predictions for Black Friday, plus the odds and splits

A pivotal NFC showdown headlines Black Friday as the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears (8-3, 4-2 away, 7-4 ATS, 6-4-1 O/U) travel to Lincoln Financial Field to face the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles (8-3, 4-1 home, 7-4 ATS, 5-6 O/U) on November 28th at 3:00 pm ET.

The Eagles enter as substantial home favorites. The central question for handicappers is whether Philadelphia’s methodical efficiency will outduel an explosive Bears attack led by sophomore sensation Caleb Williams, who’s moved into the top ten of the NFL MVP odds.

Below, I have set out the latest CHI/PHI odds and betting splits, plus my Bears vs Eagles picks and predictions for Black Friday.

Jump to: ODDS || BETTING SPLITS || PICKS

Bears vs Eagles Predictions: Sharp Analysis Points to Chicago Value

While the Philadelphia Eagles command respect as heavy home favorites, a granular examination of both teams’ statistical profiles reveals the Chicago Bears possess multiple paths to covering the substantial seven-point spread. Philadelphia’s core advantage lies in red zone efficiency, but Chicago’s explosive potential and defensive playmaking ability create several compelling betting angles.

Our primary focus targets value in what projects as a competitive divisional-style battle, emphasizing Chicago’s ability to generate turnovers and a ground game matchup that favors the home team.

CHI vs PHI ATS Pick: Chicago Bears +7.5 (-125) at Underdog

The Eagles hold a commanding 74.1% no-vig win probability, yet covering a full touchdown spread presents significant challenges against a Bears squad that maintains statistical advantages in crucial categories. Chicago enters this matchup averaging superior offensive production across multiple metrics:

• Scoring Offense: Bears 26.3 PPG vs Eagles 23.2 PPG
• Total Offense: Bears 369.6 YPG vs Eagles 303.6 YPG
• Third Down Efficiency: Bears 42.2% vs Eagles 34.6%

The most compelling statistical edge lies in turnover differential, where Chicago’s opportunistic defense creates a massive advantage:

Turnover Analysis:

• Chicago Bears: +16 differential (16 interceptions, 8 fumble recoveries)
• Philadelphia Eagles: +7 differential (7 interceptions, 6 fumble recoveries)

This defensive playmaking ability provides Chicago multiple avenues to create short fields and disrupt Philadelphia’s methodical offensive approach. While the Eagles boast elite red zone conversion rate (77.8%), their conservative offensive philosophy limits explosive play potential against a Bears defense that thrives on creating chaos.

Supporting Trends:

• Bears are 8-3 ATS as road underdogs of 6+ points this season
• Chicago is 6-2 ATS following games with 19 or fewer points scored
• Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS as home favorites of 7+ points in their last 10 such contests

Bears vs Eagles O/U Pick: Under 44.5 (-112) at DraftKings

The most significant market trend centers on the total, where nearly unanimous sharp action suggests both teams’ recent offensive struggles create legitimate under value.

My analysis strongly aligns with this professional consensus. The the Eagles hit the under in three straight, and have only hit the over once this season in games with a total of 44.5 or higher (1-6 O/U).

Top CHI vs PHI Prop Bet: Saquon Barkley Over 75.5 Rush Yards (-115) at Fanatics

The game’s most exploitable matchup emerges when Philadelphia controls possession, as the Eagles will target a compromised Chicago front seven that faces multiple injury concerns. With TJ Edwards, Ruben Hyppolite II, and Noah Sewell all carrying questionable designations, the Bears’ run-defense infrastructure appears vulnerable.

This personnel situation creates an ideal setup for heavy Saquon Barkley usage:

Philadelphia’s game script will likely emphasize clock control and attacking Chicago’s primary defensive weakness. With the Eagles’ methodical offensive approach and Barkley’s consistent workload, this prop aligns perfectly with game flow expectations.

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles Odds

As of late Thursday night, the best Philadelphia moneyline has faded to -325 (at BetMGM) while the Bears are now as short as +290 (at FanDuel). The opening moneyline listed Philly at -400 and Chicago at +315.

The point spread is PHI -7.0 across the board, which is exactly where it opened. Most books have -110 odds both ways.

The game total shows a one-point range with bet365 offering the best over number (43.5 at -122) and DraftKings offering the best under number (44.5 at -110). The O/U opened at 44.5 with -115 juice on the over.

Odds commentary as of 8:01 pm ET, November 27. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market until kickoff.

Bears vs Eagles Public-Betting Splits

The NFL public betting splits reveal fascinating market dynamics that highlight where professional handicappers are finding value in this NFC clash. While recreational bettors heavily favor Philadelphia’s superior talent, sharp action appears focused on specific situational advantages.

Current Betting Distribution:

• Moneyline: Eagles receiving 90% of handle vs Bears 10%
• Spread: Bears +7 attracting 55% of money
• Total: Overwhelming 91% of handle backing under 44.5

The most-significant market trend centers on the total, where nearly unanimous sharp action suggests both teams’ recent offensive struggles create legitimate under value. This consensus aligns with our analytical approach, as both Chicago and Philadelphia managed just single touchdown performances in their previous contests.