Norway vs Senegal Odds, Predictions & Goalscorer Picks

• Norway can qualify for the knockout stage on Monday with a win against Senegal
• The statistical mismatch heavily favors Norway exploiting Senegal’s backline
• See my Norway vs Senegal picks, predictions, and props to bet on June 22

The stakes could not be higher when Norway squares off against Senegal in East Rutherford on June 22 (8:00 pm ET). Entering the second matchday of World Cup Group I play, the storylines are sharply contrasted. The European favorite can punch its ticket to the knockout stage with a win, while the desperate African underdog is fighting to keep its tournament hopes alive.

Norway cruised to a dominant 4-1 opening victory over Iraq, propelled by a brace from Erling Haaland, while Senegal is reeling from a 3-1 loss to France.

I will break down the expected game script, outlining the best betting angles and props to target.

Senegal vs Norway Odds

The prediction markets at Kalshi establish Norway as slight +122 moneyline favorites with Senegal at +245 and a draw at +257.

For bettors looking at the moneyline, a $10 wager on the favored Norwegians would yield a total payout of $22.20 ($12.20 in profit). The same $10 bet on Senegal to bounce back with a win would return a $34.50 payout ($24.50 in profit).

In the total-goals marktes, over 2.5 is a slight -108 favorite over under 2.5 (+104). As you’ll see below, I believe those prices still misjudge the high-scoring potential of both nations.

Norway vs Senegal Predictions & Goalscorer Picks

When analyzing the betting markets for this Group I encounter, the underlying metrics point strongly toward an open, high-scoring affair that favors the European side.

3-Way Moneyline Pick: Norway to Win (+122)

Prediction Markets

NOR vs SEN ML Pick

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Kalshi

Norway

45%

Predict

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While conventional sportsbooks price Norway at +120 or shorter, Kalshi has a Norway win at 45¢, which translates to slightly-better +122 odds.

The statistical disparity between these two sides justifies the wager. Norway controlled 63% of possession and generated 12 total shots in their opener against Iraq. Senegal managed a mere two shots on target in their debut against France. Obviously Senegal’s quality of competition was significantly higher on the first matchday.

But Norway’s style travels well against a Senegal team that may have to chase the game to keep its tournament alive. Senegal managed only two shots on target in its debut despite eventually needing to push forward, and its backline was repeatedly stressed by France’s pace and movement.

Norway does not have France’s overall depth, but Haaland, Martin Ødegaard, and Alexander Sørloth give them enough elite attacking quality to exploit similar transition spaces. I expect Norway’s midfield to starve Senegal of the ball much the way France did.

I make Norway the rightful favorite to secure three points and +122 offers positive-expected value based on my model.

Total-Goals Pick: Over 2.5 (-108)

Prediction Markets

NOR vs SEN O/U Pick

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Kalshi

Over 2.5 Goals

52%

Predict

Senegal’s opening loss means Aliou Cisse’s side has less incentive to turn this into a slow, low-event match, especially if Norway scores first. A draw may keep Senegal mathematically alive, but it leaves them with little hope of finishing top two in the group, so the longer this match stays level – or if Senegal falls behind – the more stretched it should become.

That suits Norway. Haaland gives them an elite box finisher, Sørloth adds a second direct target, and Ødegaard’s passing range can punish a midfield that has to step higher than it did against France. Senegal also have enough attacking quality through Sadio Mane and their wide runners to contribute to the total rather than simply absorb pressure for 90 minutes. The France result showed how uncomfortable Senegal can look when forced to defend space behind the midfield.

With both teams carrying legitimate transition threats and Senegal’s tournament situation pushing the match toward risk, I am backing a three-goal game script.

Kalshi again has the best price at 52¢ (-108), compared to -111 juice at traditional sportsbooks.

Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Erling Haaland (-108)

Prediction Markets

NOR vs SEN Goalscorer Pick

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Kalshi

Erling Haaland 1+ Goal

52%

Predict

Norway wasted absolutely no time establishing dominance in their opening match, with Haaland netting a brace. Senegal’s defense proved highly susceptible to rapid transitions, surrendering three goals to France. Backing Haaland against a disorganized defensive unit provides excellent positive-expected value at just 52 cents (-108).

NOR vs SEN Tournament Stats

Norway vs Senegal Injury Report

Neither Norway nor Senegal have any players listed on the official injury or suspension reports.

Norway’s frightening attacking depth remains intact. Expect the offensive trio of Haaland, Sørloth, and Ødegaardto execute their high-possession game plan.

For Senegal, a fully available squad means Kalidou Koulibaly will anchor the defensive line.