Duke vs Florida Picks: Blue Devils Favored by 9.5 in ACC-SEC Challenge Showdown

• Undefeated Blue Devils host the reigning-champion Gators on Tuesday night
• Duke is a big home favorite over Florida on Dec. 2nd
• See my Florida vs Duke picks and predictions, plus props and the latest odds

The ACC-SEC Challenge delivers a marquee matchup on Tuesday night as the reigning-national champion #15 Florida Gators (5-2, 0-0 away, 1-6 ATS, 2-5 O/U) venture into Cameron Indoor to face the undefeated #4 Duke Blue Devils (8-0, 4-0 home, 6-2 ATS, 1-7 O/U) at 7:00 pm ET. The game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.

This clash features Duke’s 6’0 freshman phenom Cameron Boozer (22.9 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 3.9 APG) squaring off against Florida’s elite frontcourt anchored by 6’11 junior Alex Condon (15.7 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 3.5 APG), 6’9 junior Thomas Haugh (17.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 3.0 APG), and 6’10 junior Rueben Chinyelu (11.1 PPG, 10.9 RPG), who’s top-20 nationally in D-REB%.

Duke enters as a substantial home favorite, while the Gators look to right their season in one fell swoop. Below, I have set out my Florida vs Duke picks and predictions, the main player props, and the latest Duke/Florida odds.

Duke vs Florida Expert Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

• ATS PICK: Duke -7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

The statistical evidence strongly supports backing Duke to cover the 7.5-point spread. This marks Florida’s inaugural true road test this season, and it comes against a Duke team with one of the most-pronounced home-court advantages in the nation.

Duke is already 3-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor this season, and the only spread the Blue Devils didn’t cover was a ludicrous 43.5 points when they hosted Howard on Nov. 23, a game they won by a mere 37 points (93-56).

Duke’s smallest margin of victory this season is nine points, which came last time out when they eased past Arkansas (rated 36th at KenPom) on a neutral court in Chicago.

Cameron Boozer presents the primary mismatch that tilts this game in Duke’s favor. The freshman sensation ranks 5th nationally with 183 total points while averaging a staggering 22.9 PPG and 9.75 RPG on efficient 57.8% shooting. His elite usage rate (30.71%) makes him the focal point of Duke’s attack, and Florida lacks the defensive personnel to contain his versatility. The Gators’ perimeter struggles compound this problem, as starters Xaivian Lee (26.3% FG) and Boogie Fland (38.2% FG) have shot poorly, limiting their ability to keep pace offensively.

Florida’s poor shooting is the main reason the reigning champs are just 1-6 ATS out of the gate.

While Florida boasts superior rebounding behind Chinyelu’s SEC-leading 11.0 RPG, Duke’s frontcourt depth with Boozer and Patrick Ngongba II (6.6 RPG) can neutralize this advantage. The Blue Devils’ suffocating defense (58.8 PPG allowed) against an out-of-sync Florida offense on the road creates the perfect scenario for a comfortable home victory.

• Game-Total Pick : Over 155.5 (-110)

The elevated total reflects both teams’ offensive capabilities, making the over an attractive proposition. Duke’s high-octane attack features Boozer alongside efficient contributors like Ngongba II (12.8 PPG on 67.3% shooting) and perimeter threat Isaiah Evans (12.5 PPG). The Blue Devils have already demonstrated their scoring explosiveness at home, dropping triple digits against weaker opponents.

Florida’s offensive identity supports high-scoring games, with the Over cashing in five of their seven contests this season. The Gators possess legitimate scoring threats in Thomas Haugh (17.9 PPG) and Alex Condon (16.0 PPG). Duke’s pace and defensive pressure should force Florida into an uptempo style, creating additional possessions that favor the Over despite the Gators’ shooting struggles.

FLA vs DUKE Player Props

Player props as of 11:29 am ET at bet365 (points, assists) and BetMGM (rebounds).

Boozer leads the point totals by a wide margin, listed at 23.5 O/U with -120 odds to hit the over. Haugh has the highest total on the Florida side at just 15.5.

Boozer is also tied with Chinyelu for the highest rebound total at 9.5, though Chinyelu is -140 to hit the over while Boozer is -118.

Florida vs Duke Betting Odds

As of 11:05 am ET, the Duke/Florida odds list the Blue Devils at a market-best -365 on the moneyline at Caesars. The Gators are as long as +315 at FanDuel.

The spread ranges from Duke -7.5 to -8.5. BetMGM has the best ATS price on Florida (+8.5 at -110) while Caesars has the best ATS price on Duke.

The game total ranges from 156.5 to 157.5. Under bettors should take 157.5 (-110) at bet365; over bettors should take 156.5 (-110) at Caesars.

Odds commentary as of 11:05 am ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the college basketball odds move over the course of the day.

Statistical Breakdown: Duke vs Florida

The numbers reveal Duke’s substantial edges across multiple categories, particularly in offensive efficiency and defensive execution. While Florida shows strength on the glass, their shooting deficiencies and turnover issues create significant vulnerabilities against elite competition.