Last-Minute North Texas vs Tulane Prediction & Expert AAC Title Game Pick

• The winner of the AAC Title game tonight heads to the CFP
• North Texas is a slight road favorite over Tulane in the Friday Conference Championship odds
• Keep reading for my last-minute North Texas vs Tulane prediction and American Title Game pick

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The No.24 North Texas Mean Green (11-1) head to New Orleans to face the No.20 Tulane Green Wave (10-2) for the American Title Game. Tulane’s Yulman Stadium will host the 8:00 PM ET kickoff on Friday, Dec. 5. ABC will broadcast the game.

Continue reading for my North Texas vs Tulane prediction, as well as my North Texas vs Tulane pick and the line for the American Title Game.

North Texas vs Tulane Prediction for AAC Title Game

• North Texas 35, Tulane 28

In my North Texas vs Tulane prediction, I have the Mean Green pulling out the victory and essentially clinching a spot in the CFP Bracket. Depending on the result of the Virginia vs Duke game, North Texas could be as high as the No.11 seed in the CFP.

A Look at North Texas

North Texas had never won even 10 games in a season before this season. Now, they have 11 wins and are looking for their first American title. Future Oklahoma State head coach Eric Morris will coach the AAC Title Game, attempting to guide the Mean Green to the CFP as an automatic bid. North Texas is ranked for just the second time in school history.

Through the regular season, Drew Mestemaker leads the country with 3,835 passing yards on a ridiculous 10.0 yards per attempt. He leads the American in completion percentage, passing touchdowns, yards per completion, and passing efficiency. He has a total of 34 touchdowns, accounting for at least four touchdowns in five different games.

As good as Mestemaker has been, Caleb Hawkins is the engine of the offense. He leads the FBS with a ridiculous 23 rushing touchdowns and 26 total touchdowns. He is the American’s leading rusher with 1,216 yards. Hawkins has surpassed 1,500 scrimmage yards on the season, catching 28 passes in addition to his excellent rushing production.

Wyatt Young is the best receiver in the conference, leading the American with 1,203 yards and 10 receiving touchdowns. His performance against Rice two weeks ago is the most productive outing any receiver has had this season: a whopping 295 yards on eight catches, scoring two touchdowns. He also has the No.12 receiving output on the season.

Wyatt Young is an absolute DOG for the Mean Green pic.twitter.com/HkgLzDcCBH

— Jason (@Riedmillahhh) November 23, 2025

The man to watch on the Mean Green defense is linebacker Ethan Wesloski. Wesloski leads the team with 9.0 tackles for a loss, and he has been a tremendous playmaker. He has two forced fumbles, a pick, 1.5 sacks, and a scoop-and-score.

A Look at Tulane

Tulane is in its fourth straight AAC Title Game, its fourth straight season with at least nine wins. While the Green Wave faces an uphill battle to tie the school record with 12 wins (1998 and 2022), a win over North Texas would send the Green Wave to its first CFP. Tulane has been ranked in the top 25 in each of the last four seasons.

BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff has 14 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing touchdowns in a tremendous debut season in New Orleans. He is averaging north of 270 total yards per game, leading the Green Wave with 561 rushing yards. He can be spotty as a passer (62.6% completion rate), but his rushing upside is tremendous.

Jake Retzlaff is having the time of his life pic.twitter.com/1T2pG86VYy

— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) November 8, 2025

Outside of Retzlaff, Tulane has a balanced rushing approach. Five running backs have at least 100 rushing yards this season with Javin Gordon leading the bunch with 111 rushes and 479 yards. The Green Wave averages a healthy 167.8 rushing yards per game, rotating its backs to keep them fresh.

Similar to the rushing attack, the receiving attack is multi-pronged. Shazz Preston leads the team in catches, yards, and touchdowns, but the gaps are not insurmountable. Preston is one of four receivers with 30 catches and 400 yards this season.

Defensive lineman Harvey Dyson leads the team with 9.0 tackles for a loss and a tied-for-the-team-lead 6.0 sacks. The Texas Tech transfer also has tipped a pass and forced a fumble in his breakout season.

North Texas vs Tulane Pick for AAC Title Game

• North Texas -1.5 (-122, BetRivers)

Here is why I am backing North Texas -1.5 in the American Title Game:

• Despite being favorites in every game to this point, North Texas is a ridiculous 10-2 ATS this season. Their lone losses ATS are a three-point win over Western Michigan (-11.5) and a blowout loss to USF (-2.5). Tulane, meanwhile, is just 5-6-1 ATS.
• North Texas has the No.1 scoring offense in FBS, averaging just shy of 47 points per game. The average North Texas pass is a 10-yard gain, a truly impossible figure. Tulane has allowed over 250 passing yards per game.
• In the quarterback matchup, North Texas’ Drew Mestemaker has the advantage. Even with Jake Retzlaff’s stellar ability on the ground, Mestemaker is a true star at the quarterback position and potentially a Power 4 quarterback next season.

North Texas vs Tulane Odds

North Texas is a slight favorite on the road in New Orleans, being listed as a 1.5-point favorite on BetRivers (-122 odds). North Texas bettors can get the Mean Green for -132 on the moneyline at FanDuel. On the Tulane side, bettors can take the Green Wave at +2.5 (-102 odds on Caesars) or +115 on the moneyline at bet365.

The total is set between 66.5 and 67 points. Over bettors can bet over 66.5 on bet365 for -110 odds. Under bettors can bet under 67 on Fanatics for -110 odds.

Odds as of Dec. 5, 2025. Check out the best available sportsbook promos for Conference Championship Friday.

North Texas vs Tulane, Recent History

Tulane has won all three lifetime matchups against North Texas, most recently last season. Now, as conference rivals, Tulane and North Texas should face off much more regularly.

Last season, Tulane largely dominated the matchup. The Green Wave led by three scored at four different points before North Texas scored 13 points in the final five minutes to lose by just one possession. On the Tulane side, future Duke quarterback Darian Mensah threw three touchdowns and future Oregon running back Makhi Hughes had 203 total yards. For North Texas, future Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris had 469 total yards and four touchdowns.

American History for North Texas vs Tulane

North Texas in American Championship Games

This is North Texas’s first appearance in the American Title Game. The previous two seasons, the Mean Green went 5-7 and 6-7, respectively, finishing in the bottom half of the conference.

North Texas last played in a conference title game back in 2022 when it was a member of Conference USA. The Mean Green lost 48-27 to a ranked UTSA squad. North Texas last won a conference title in 2004, winning the Sun Belt for the fourth consecutive season.

Tulane in American Championship Games

Tulane is in its fourth straight AAC Title Game. Back in 2022, the Green Wave clobbered UCF. In the last two seasons, Tulane lost to SMU by 12 and to Army by 21.

Since rejoining a conference in 1996, Tulane has won two conference titles: the 1998 C-USA title and the 2022 American title. For trivia buffs out there, Tulane has three SEC titles (1934, 1939, 1949), more than several active SEC members.