Group-Winner Odds After World Cup Draw
By Sascha Paruk in Soccer News
Published:
- The draw for the 2026 World Cup has been set
- The USMNT will face Australia, Paraguay, and a TDB opponent in the group stage
- See the odds to win each of the 12 groups at the 2026 World Cup
This morning’s 2026 World Cup draw established the 12 four-team groups for next summer’s tournament in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. As always, some teams landed in much tougher quartets than others.
The table below lists the opening group-winner odds for each of the 12 groups.
Group-Winner Odds at 2026 World Cup
The biggest group-winner favorite is Spain, which is -450 (85% implied win probability) to win its quartet with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. Spain is also the outright favorite in the 2026 World Cup odds, priced between +410 and +450 depending on the sportsbook.
Odds as of Dec. 5th at Caesars Sportsbook (Groups A to J) and DraftKings (Groups K and L).
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USA Favored to Win Group D
The USMNT is a tepid +125 favorite to win Group D against Paraguay, Australia, and the winner of the Path C playoff between Turkiye, Romania, Slovakia, and Kosovo.
The Path C-winner is the second-favorite at +200. Turkiye is the -110 odds-on favorite to advance to the World Cup out of that quartet.
The group-winner odds at DraftKings list out the playoff teams individually:
- USA: +150
- Paraguay: +330
- Turkiye: +500
- Australia: +500
- Slovakia: +750
- Romania: +2000
- Kosovo: +2000
Mexico Odds-On Favorite to Win Group A
El Tri are -105 favorites to top Group A, which also features South Africa, South Korea, and the winner of playoff Path D between Denmark, North Macedonia, Czechia, and Ireland.
DraftKings has listed the Group A-winner odds with each of the playoff teams on its own. The DraftKings odds are:
- Mexico: +110
- South Korea: +200
- Denmark: +450
- Czechia: +1200
- South Africa: +2000
- Ireland: +3500
- North Macedonia: +10000
Canada Big Underdog in Group B-Winner Odds
Unlike the USA and Mexico, Canada – the third host country – is a +330 third-favorite to win its group, a veritable “group of death” featuring Switzerland, Qatar, and the winner of Italy, N. Ireland, Wales, Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Italy is a -188 favorite to win playoff Path A. (Wales is +300; Bosnia and Herzegovina is +550, and Northern Ireland is +1600.)
DraftKings has broken the odds down further (giving each of the playoff teams their own price). The Group B-winner odds at DK are as follows:
- Switzerland: +180
- Italy: +250
- Canada: +275
- Qatar: +1000
- Wales: +2000
- Bosnia: +2000
- Northern Ireland: +10000
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
